Armies of Liberation

What a good article, but then again he’s a poli sci prof. Yemen Mirror:

Yemen: Consensus or War

Yemen’s unification came as a result of consensus among the ruling parties in the former north and south of Yemen.
The Yemeni constitution was amended twice since unification, and elections’ law was changed repeatedly based on “National Consensus.”
Likewise, elections held in 1993, 1997, 1999, 2001, and 2003 were governed by national agreement. Since 1993, Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar presided over the parliament based on the same political mechanism.
In the only instance political forces attempted to rely on democracy as a convenient mechanism to distribute power in society, the country found itself, in less than a year, in a civil war.
There are indicators today that Yemen is traveling on the same road it took in 1994, though the particulars of matters are not the same.
The problem, as Dr. Yaseen Saeed Noaman once said, doesn’t lie with democracy, but with democrats. Though the option of war as an alternative to reconciliation and consensus seems improbable, justifiably for some people, but a deep insight into the given status quo and the prevalent crisis reveals the probability of confrontation and chaos.
Crisis of the electoral register

Ibrahim Yahya Ahmed Muqbel al-Haydari in the electoral register is a citizen born in Awlah in 1978, with a secondary school certificate. His job is registered as a student in Sana’a province, in al-Jabeen county, constituency 222, polling center (M). His numbering is 690.
Though human cloning as a technology is not in Yemen yet, the electorate register displays again the name of Ibrahim Yahya Ahmed Muqbel al-Haydari as born in Sana’a in 1979 with a secondary school certificate, but this time his job is a soldier and a registered voter in Hadeebo, Socotra Island, Hadramout province.
His constituency in Hadeebo is 140, polling center 1062. If these fraudulent repetitions are the case of 100 or 1000 persons only, that would be a tolerable rate of fraud. But a Joint Meeting paper shows that there are 212225 persons (about 3% of the register) who have identical names.
The paper also shows that 3296891 (about 42% of the register) have identical first, second, third and fourth names; 875052 (about 11% of the register) have identical first, second, third and fourth names in addition to the title.
There are 880930 cases in the electoral register (about 11 percent of the register) believed to be below the age required by law for voting (18+).
Dear reader, if you doubt what the Joint Meeting parties say, maybe you should just look around.
The voter registration that started in April and closed early this month witnessed recurrent pauses due to shortages of stationery. According to the Joint Meeting paper, in one day, 133 centers in Ibb province suspended their work.
These pauses happened despite the announcement made by the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum that it distributed two and a half million voter cards and an equivalent number of camera films. If we accept the commission’s information, then we are compelled to wonder where did cards in so large numbers go?
The Joint Meeting’s paper showed evidence of the ruling party’s dominance over not only the supreme commission itself but also of the subcommittees in provinces.
The Joint Meeting accused supreme commission of illegally assigning the Minister of Civil Service, Hamoud al-Soufi, to form the committees of registration.
The Joint Meeting showed evidence of attacks by influential civilian and military officials (affiliated with the ruling party) on committee workers, especially on women committees and of the use of force to get registration committees commit violations of legal rules.

The possible and wanted solution

Despite the importance of National Consensus in the political life of Yemen, some of those who frequent the weekly forum of Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar were much sensitive to the suggestion one attendant proposed on May 8 that the upcoming elections are held based on National Consensus rather than competition.
The sensitivity to the concept, once used to be a characteristic of only ruling party leaders, has gained new grounds.
It seems the in-media argument and the premature dialogue have seemingly engendered sensitivity amongst opposition parties as well. The leaders of the opposition see that the reconciliation in previous years has led to the situation we are experiencing today, and that is not precise. What happened in previous elections was a consensus based on individualism, dynasty and partisanship.
It was a sort of sacrificing the constitution and the law and not meant for the public interest or reinforcing the rule of law.
The writer of these lines sees the possible and necessary National Consensus of today must consider the following:
- Introducing the suitable amendments to elections’ law in a manner that reforms the supreme commission and pleases all sides in the political process and suits logic and the interest of the nation.
The supreme commission in any country must equally represent all political parties. It goes without saying that when Yemen plays football against Brazil, the referees have to be neutral regardless of the superiority of Brazil.
Contrary to the narrow belief, the rules of the game are not to be determined based on the verdict of the majority. This is a logical rule needless of review. The independence of the commission is the core of neutrality as required by the opposition parties. This includes the neutrality of the public funds, media and army.
There are two ways to form the committee; the first is the best for the people and the country. It is to select strong independent high-profile figures proved to really have these characteristics and appoint them as the supreme commission members.
This option will make the country avoid clashes that may be caused by the partisanship of the committee. The other option is centered on creating the committee equally from the ruling party, the Joint Meeting and independents.
The independents will be able to represent national interests whereas parties’ members can represent groups’ interests. Dr. Faraj Ben Ghanem and Former Minister of Oil Faisal Ben Shamlan are the best independent candidates for the supreme elections committee. More than anyone else, those figures can enhance the integrity of the elections.
- The exploitation of the constitutional clause that allows parliament to prolong the president’s term for three more months if elections for any reason are not held on time. That period of time will allow the new committee to rewrite the election register and prepare for local and presidential elections that are run by neutral and independent committee. Only then, results can be accepted by all concerned parties. A rewrite of the register means that the current register is thrown away and a new one is created.
If that is difficult to fulfill, it may help to just refine the existing register. This can be done by taking out the flosses and adding new voters who didn’t register due to the way the current committee ran the registration process. The most important thing is the existence of an independent, and neutral committee which is committed to constitutional and legal rules.
- There is also the issue of reforming the judiciary by extensively amending the judiciary law to allow the judicial system independence from the executive. The judiciary has a huge potential of serving as a judge in all kind of societal disputes, including those related to the electoral process.
The existence of an independent judicial system will help the country to overcome different election-related disagreements. In this regard, the ruling party needs to convince itself of what most Yemenis are convinced of regardless of their party affiliation which is that the current judiciary doesn’t have the adequate independence from the executive. Lack of judicial independence has undermined the ability of the judiciary to gain the trust of various parties. Therefore, calling on the Joint Meeting parties to legally challenge elections-related violations in front of the judiciary is unrealistic taking into consideration the current conditions of the judicial system
- Nominating Ali Abdullah Saleh on behalf of the ruling party and the Joint Meeting as a candidate of the national consensus for the next seven years. This should not close elections on President Saleh; other independent candidates should be given the chance to compete against Saleh.
And with a neutral elections committee, the Joint Meeting Parties can shift focus into local elections and prepare themselves for more political gains in the next parliamentary elections which are scheduled to be held in April 2009.
- Inviting the international community represented by sincere donor countries and international organizations to help the elections committee financially and technically so that it can get its mission done fully in the shortest time possible. Donors are expected to show enthusiasm about supporting and strengthening democracy building initiatives.
For any national consensus to be realized, however, various societal actors have to be ready to give necessary concessions in the interest of strengthening democracy, settlement, and rule of law. The ruling and the opposing parties should realize the fanatic attitudes will do more damage to the national welfare. The ruler can not compel the opposition to obey his will without taking the risk that they will sanction the election and refuse to accept the results.
The Joint Meeting Parties must know that if they want to be obeyed they have to ask for what is politically possible. Political development does not occur once and for all, especially in a country where prerequisites of political development are still largely missing. But development can be achieved by following a step-by-step approach. This in itself requires national wisdom and awareness on the part of authority and the opposition. Those who push the country towards hell because of different reasons, whether they are in the opposition or in the ruling party, inside or outside the country, must think of the probable risks emanating from their actions.

The President’s Will

In a speech concluding a discussion around the registration of voters on May 8, Sheikh Al-Ahmar said the integrity and corruption of the elections starts from the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum. Then in a good strike, Al-Ahamr threw the ball to the president’s court when he said that everything is in the hands of the President good and bad and the way-out from this current crisis. Al-Ahmar was right in this.
The president alone has the power to solve this problem. Should anything bad happen to the country, history will not blame shadowy figures that were not chosen or appointed by the public. All the blame will fall on the president.
The president has two options: listen to the voice of mind and reason and to those who are very much concerned about the country and its safety and high interests, or follow the opinions of some risk-takers that are very short-sighted.
It’s only the president that will bear the responsibility of any decision taken. The president with the political power vested in him is capable of doing a lot vis-à-vis his party and the joint meeting parties. Sheikh Al-Ahmar also can do a lot to moderate leaders of the joint meeting. In addition, the key roles played by the president and Al-Ahmar must be supplemented by efforts of all independent and partisan patriots in the country.

By Dr. Abdullah Al-Faqih
Professor of Political Science
Sana’a University

Now if I recall correctly, the GPC flipped out over this suggestion that the election should be delayed three months while the electoral rolls are corrected. That wouldn’t look good (when actually it would reflect so well internationally) and they would have to admit that the problem exists. That’s half the battle in Yemen.

And the professor is right, only Saleh can fix the problem with the election. He’s the one that created it by enabling GPC hedgemony.