Projected Population Growth
The Resident Representative of the United Nation Population Fund, Hans Obdeijn, last Tuesday presented to the Minister of Planning and International Cooperation, Abdulkareem Al-Arhabi, the results of the UNFPA’s analysis of the potential dangers for Yemen of continued population growth in the coming years in the fields of the economy, health, education and the effects on the individual’s share of natural resources like water and electricity.
The analysis is for the period of 2008-2033 and is based on two possible hypotheses, the first is that Yemen’s fertility rate continues at its current level of 6.1 children born per woman, and the second scenario envisions the rate falling to 3.3 children born per woman by the year 2020.
The report adds that Yemen’s population is set to exceed 50 million if the current growth rate is maintained, 2.2 million job opportunities would be required and the number of pupils enrolled in primary education would be 14.7 million, which would mean 490,000 more teachers would be needed.
In terms of the effect on the health sector, 16,000 extra doctors would be required, and an extra 8392 million cubic meters of water will have to be found, this without considering the effects on electricity, security and other areas.
In the case of a reduction of fertility to 3.3 children per woman, the report predicts the population to reach 43 million in 2033.
