Armies of Liberation

This article is about Saudi Arabia’s religious re-education program, and notes the Yemeni one was a failure.

BBC

According to Dr Mustafa Alani, director of security at the Gulf Research Centre, “around 3,000 jihadists are being targeted under the scheme”.

“They are not the real hardliners but they are still members of al-Qaeda-inspired cells who could otherwise become fighters.”

Dr Alani says that a similar scheme in Yemen has largely failed, with 70% of supposedly reformed jihadists who were released getting re-arrested for terrorist offences. In Saudi Arabia, he says, the re-arrest figure is just 5-7%.

Judge Hamoud al-Hittar, who ran the program, reportedly came out of the security forces. Al-Hittar is currently the head of the well funded Endowments Ministry.

A good article by Professor Burrowes in the Yemen Times. It has an excellent explanation of the structure of the regime as a pyramid of corruption, and its conclusions are spot on: As it is currently formulated, the ruling regime will shortly bring Yemen to state failure. It needs to be reoriented or replaced.

Therefore, this is me now, US policy should not be geared toward strengthening Saleh, but at a minimum should move to weaken the current configuration with the inclusion of authentic opposition. Burrowes suggests purging the more die hard anti-reformists.

I’ve read suggestions that the way to ensure Yemen’s cooperation in the GWOT is to secure Saleh’s dominance of his current opposition. However if he is steadily leading the nation toward collapse, this is a short term, counter-productive fix, which in the long term will bring about the jihadization of Yemen. And if all the US really cares about is terrorism, its still a good idea to demand real democracy and stop pretending this diabolical regime posturing is anything close to it.

Yemen is a dictatorship. Pluralism will secure both economic growth and counter-terror cooperation. It is the only way out. Its time to say something, anything, about the Southern protests, the Sa’ada war, and the journalists on trial for treason.

Restructuring the regime

Given these salient features of Yemeni politics and the Yemeni state, it seems that the coalition of groups that comprises the regime has to be quickly reoriented, reconstituted or replaced in order to increase its will and capacity to effect the socioeconomic reforms that were so urgently needed. The goal has to be a ruling coalition more able, if only for the sake of survival, to act in terms of its enlightened self-interest. Perhaps the regime as currently constituted could not be reoriented or replaced by one means or another. If so, then regime elements resolutely opposed to the needed reforms would have to be deleted somehow from the coalition and opposition elements that are credible partners would have to be added to the regime in order to broaden its base and maintain its political viability.

It seems that if the regime was not quickly reoriented, reconstituted or replaced, then Yemen is at risk of imminent political collapse. Unable to deliver on the wants and needs of most of the people, support and legitimacy are already declining steeply. Underway for nearly a decade, this process had accelerated over the past few years. As a result, the fragile Yemeni state is already a failing state—and it risked becoming a failed state in the next several years. If the state did fail, then the country could quickly slide into anarchy (Somalia) or civil war (Lebanon). Under these circumstances, Yemen could become an arena in which transnational revolutionary Islam becomes a serious contender for power, as was the Taliban in Afghanistan beginning in 1994.

Dr. Burrowes is adjunct professor (retired) at the Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington. He is the author of “Yemen: Political Economy and the Effort against Terrorism,” in Robert I. Rotberg, (ed.), Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press/World Peace Foundation, 2005); “The Famous Forty and Their Companions: North Yemen’s First-generation Modernists and Educational Emigrants,” The Middle East Journal (Winter 2005); Historical Dictionary of Yemen, the Scarecrow Press, Inc (September 1995); “The Other Side of the Red Sea and a Little More: The Horn of Africa and the Two Yemens,” in David A. Korn, Steven R. Dorr and Neysa M. Slater, (eds.), The Horn of Africa and Arabia (Washington, DC: Defense Academic Research Support Program, December 1990), and; The Yemen Arab Republic: The Politics of Development, 1962-1986 (Boulder, CO., 1987).

Jihadization, what a good word. I should write an article just to put that in the title.

I need this right now actually.

Yemen arrests 228 terrorists, criminals in 2007

[23 January 2008]
SANA’A, Jan. 23 (Saba) – Security forces arrested 228 persons accused of terror and criminal crimes during 2007, the military-run 26sep.net reported on Wednesday.

The website quoted security sources as saying that Yemen freed 136 persons of the detainees and referred others to prosecution before they were found guilty.

On the other hand, by Arab countries handed over in 2007 five wanted persons to Yemen and it handed over eight convicted ones to Arab and foreign states during the same year.

Security services are searching for 494 defendants wanted by Arab and foreign countries and they asked some countries to find five persons wanted by the Yemeni government.

YO

Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of the Interior, Dr. Rashad al-Alaimi…confirmed that the 18th conference would review security performance, as well as the accomplishments and conclusions for the 2007 year. Al-Alimi also disclosed that the security authorities had seized over 4 tons of drugs and more than a half million ton of tablets during 2007 in all Yemeni governorates. (Read on …)

Head of Central Security he is.

Excellent article from the YemenTimes:

On Tuesday Jan. 23, 2008, Kanan for Palestine, a GONGO (semi-governmental NGO), comprising state officials, academics, and pro regime elements organized a march to protest the Israeli blockade on Gaza. The huge crowd which showed up for the rally was not surprising because Yemenis are well known as a strong enthusiast of the Palestinian just cause. What was surprising is the alleged participation of thousands of soldiers in the protest. The allegations are substantiated by the fact that Kanan is led by Yahya Mohammed Abdullah Saleh—a nephew and an in-law of President Saleh and a brigadier general of Yemen’s Central Security Forces. In fact, Yahya himself headed the crowed and called, in a speech delivered to participants, on unspecified countries to “open the door for jihad and resistance” promising that “our people will join.” The Tuesday incident raises some very important questions concerning the role of military in politics in general and the motives for the Tuesday showoff in particular. (Read on …)

The reason Condi is not safe in Yemen is not the angry crowds of pro-Palestinian Yemenis, but rather the deep penetration of al-Qaeda affiliates in the military and security forces.

SANA’A, NewsYemen

Yemeni Foreign Ministry has denied media reports that holding “Forum for the Future” in Yemen was cancelled by US Administration for bad security situations in Yemen.

The statement reported by official news agency,Saba, which attributed it to official source as following:

The Yemeni government apologized last week for not hosting the forum, delayed from December 2007 to January 2008, as it has become very late and Yemen did not receive any notification from the G-8 about a new schedule, in addition to transferring the Forum’s chairmanship from Germany to Japan, said the official source.

The source said the apology of U.S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to attend the Forum, in its first schedule, came after Yemen refused to extradite Jamal al-Badawi to US since that violates Yemen’s law and constitution.

It said that many countries including United States of America have been ready to participate in the Forum on its time, but it was postponed from December 2007 to January 2008 on a request from different participating countries.

The official source wondered about some media reported that holding the forum in Yemen was to be “honor certificate” for democratic move Yemen has adopted. “Democracy in Yemen is a Yemeni choice and a national contentment”, said the source.Yemen has adopted democracy since early time because it is a national interest, it added.The source confirmed Yemen’s keenness on playing role as a partner in Forum for the Future, democratization process, reforms in the region as well as international war on terror in accordance with international legitimacy and national laws and constitution.

al-Motamar

almotamar.net – An official source at the Yemeni foreign Ministry on Monday denies truthfulness of reports published by media instruments that the United States of America informed the Yemeni government last week on canceling holding the 4th future Forum in Sana’a and decided to transfer the venue of its convention to another country for security reasons. (Read on …)

update: Memri

Al-Qaeda in Yemen information chief Ahmad Mansour has told the Yemen paper Al-Wasat that Al-Qaeda operatives are deployed across Yemen and that their number is increasing, particularly after the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

He said that the fighters have instructions from Osama bin Laden not to attack Yemeni government targets, and that the Yemen regime has asked the organization to fight the Houthi Shi’ite rebels. He added that the U.S. was still their No. 1. enemy, and that the jihad fighters in his organization could carry out terror operations against tourists.

Source: Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, London, January 31, 2008

More ADNKI

Sanaa, 31 Jan. (AKI) -Yemeni al-Qaeda cell spokesman Ahmad Mansour has said that the government asked it to fight a Shia rebel group in the North of the country, local newspaper al-Wasat reported.

“They [the government] have asked us to fight against the followers of Imam al-Houthi of Saada. In return, Yemeni security forces will ease the persecution of our members,” said Mansour.

Mansour added that al-Qaeda members are present in various locations throughout Yemen and have always had contact with the government, through Sheikhs and tribal leaders.

“Sheikh Osama bin Laden ordered us not to attack [the government] in the country and to combat only the communists, but the relationship with the government soured after the end of the war with Southern Yemen in 1994.” said the al-Qaeda militant.

Mansour added that the United States still was their number-one enemy and that attacks against tourists could be carried out.

The Yemeni government asked al-Qaeda to fight the Zaidi rebels. Therefore calling al-Qaeda a domestic paramilitary for the regime is accurate. This agreement goes back to at least 2005, like I said in…2005.

From the Empty Quarter:

Al Wasat Interview with al Qaeda Information Officer
January 29, 2008 by Trey Campbell
A new interview between al Wasat and “Ahmad Mansour,” the operational name of the ”information officer” of al Qaeda. Mansour told the paper that membership in the organization grew after the invasion of Iraq and “whenever the arrogance of the disbeliever increases.” He also says that early on Osama bin Laden instructed members not to attack the state because Yemen’s “weapons were directed toward the communists.” He says the relationship with the authority became strained in 1994 after the government reneged on their agreement. The article goes on to say that mediations with al Qaeda usually take place between sheiks sent by the state and jihadists, but that results are usually not achieved due to a lack of authority.

He goes on to say that the killing of Fawaz al Rubai and Mohammad ad Dailami occurred with the help of “American experts”…duh. And he calls on Jihadists within Yemen to resolve the differences between them Khalid Abdul Nabi and Nader al Shadadi ( an account of the disagreement within the Abyan group can be found here).

He defended the groups recent attacks against foreign tourists and affirmed the groups ability to carry out more operations in the future. Although, he says the first enemy is America.

He said that Islah is a weak party that does not like jihad, he praised Zindani, Abdul Wahab ad Dailami, Mohammad (Abdul Wahab?) al Ansi, and Sadiq, and he confirmed what many have been saying, that the Yemeni government asked al Qaeda to fight against the al Houthis in the north.

Mansour believes that Yemen security apparatuses – political security and national security – are conflicted about how to deal with terrorism, especially al Qaeda, because, in the past the policy has been containment through creating relationships – but it has turned out that new cells formed “away from the eyes” of security forces and the previously known al Qaeda members.

What is the full extent of the quid pro quo? Is it detente or symbiosis?

Stop starving your own people first, Ali.

MC

Sana’a, Yemen – Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh said on Monday he would ask the European Union to put pressure on Israel to end the lockdown of the Gaza Strip.

‘We look forward to seeing an effective European role to put pressure on Israel to halt its aggression and end the unfair blockade on the Palestinian people,’ Saleh told the official Saba news agency as he left on a trip to Madrid and Brussels.

The Yemeni leader said Israel must ‘abide by the resolutions of the international legitimacy (United Nations) to achieve a just peace in the region.’

He is scheduled to spend three days in Spain, and then leave for Brussels on a two-day official visit to the institutions of the European Union.

This is Saleh’s first official visit to Spain since he took over his country’s presidency in 1978.

The visit, at the invitation of Spain’s King Juan Carlos, comes nearly six months after eight Spanish tourists were killed in a car bomb attack on their convoy in central Yemen.

Yemeni officials have blamed the July 2 attack on the terrorist al-Qaeda group.

Yemen and Spain established full diplomatic relations in April 2006.

In Brussels, Saleh plans to hold talks with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, European Parliamentary Speaker Hans- Gert Poettering and EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, according to Yemeni officials.

I think this is the sixth depot that exploded in the last several years, maybe the fifth. At least three held arms caches.

Sunday, 27-January-2008
almotamar.net – Seven persons got injured in explosion of explosives depot at Souq al-Rabou area in Thamar, three of them seriously injured. Director of criminal investigations in the governorate said security authorities are investigating into causes of the incident.

The explosion happened at 11 o’clock before noon of Sunday in a depot using explosives for breaking rocks.