Yemeni Chinese Relations
Interesting analysis
Yemen - (Back to the Future )
By Abdul-Ghani Al-Iryani*-YemenOnline-> June26-(Yemeni-Chinese Relations in a Nostalgic Search for the Past )-The extremely significant June 24 – 25 visit of the Chinese Vice President to Yemen could usher a new era in Yemeni-Chinese relations as well as a definite shift in Yemeni-US relations. China was among the first countries to support an independent and defiant North Yemen in the late fifties in its attempt to maintain its claim to the territory of the British-occupied Aden Colony and the South Arabian protectorates. Along with the Soviet Union and the United States, China built roads, bridges, hospitals, factories and technical schools. That development assistance helped break the isolation of North Yemen and thrust its medieval people into the bi-polar world of the twentieth century. Yemeni foreign policy was formed by the experience of playing great powers against each other, and deft manipulation led to profitable relations with both the Eastern and Western Blocks.Western news reports out of North Yemen in the seventies and eighties mused about the irony of having Soviet and American military advisors working side by side to help the Yemeni Army face its domestic Marxist challengers as well as maintain a military posture that discouraged the expansionist designs of the West’s closest ally, Saudi Arabia from further territorial encroachment into North Yemen. This was the past that policy makers in Sana’a still yearn to and pursue, especially when relations with the US go sour.The current warm-up with China started when the US, perhaps unwisely, suspended Yemen’s admission into the Millennium Challenge Account, which would have poured hundreds of millions in assistance funds to Yemeni coffers. The US decision was a response to the inexplicable and unwise release by Yemen of the USS Cole terrorist Jamal Badawi. In the weeks that followed, the Yemeni government sent its envoys to Beijing and Moscow to explore its options. While the Yemeni Foreign Minister came out of Moscow with an empty statement of strategic partnership between Yemen and Russia, the Chinese, being themselves, said nothing. However, it is now obvious that they scheduled the Vice President’s visit to Yemen to underscore their interest in developing Chinese-Yemeni relations. The Chinese gesture, symbolic as it is, must be handsomely rewarded with oil and gas concessions.
China has been trying to fly under the American radar screen for the past two decades. To protect its massive economic growth and its lopsided trade balance with the US, It bribed the US with nearly a trillion dollars of deposits and investments in US T-bills, and avoided direct competition with the United States in the areas that the US cared about most. When The Saudi King visited China in the heat of the post 9/11 crucifixion of the house of Saud, observers where surprised at how little came out of that visit. However, China has been nibbling at the edges of Pax Americana, especially in Africa, and especially in countries with promise of oil reserves. Chinese inroad into Sudan is indicative. Without having to compete head to head with US oil companies, China has cornered a potentially major oil producer. Sudan is under US sanctions, so the risk of direct confrontation was minimal. Unfortunately for Yemeni policy makers, Yemen does not exactly fit the bill for an immediate Chinese advance. Although there are several Chinese oil exploration and production as well as oil service companies in Yemen, their potential is still unknown. Moreover, the Chinese will probably take into account that the value of Yemen to US strategists is hardly its insignificant oil reserves. The real value is its strategic location at the underbelly of Saudi Arabia and its potential to wreak havoc in an extremely important region. Yemeni policy makers are setting themselves up for a rude disappointment, when they find out that China is not ready to lock horns with the US over Yemen. In due course, as China becomes more assertive, or Yemen displays greater oil potential than in currently has, US-Chinese competition is very likely to be Yemen’s future. However, it will be China’s call, not Yemen’s.
