Armies of Liberation

Jane Novak's blog about Yemen

The Winds & Waves of Change in South-West Arabia

Filed under: South Yemen, guest posts — by Jane Novak at 9:19 am on Tuesday, November 25, 2008

A piece that contains some of the names of the 59 southern leaders the regime has issued a warrent for and notes South Arabia is willing to cooperate with NATO:

The Winds & Waves of Change in South-West Arabia- by Ian Garner

The Key issues in Yemen are:-

1-The predictions of economic collapse in 2009 by many experts although some say in 2011.

2-The probable return of civil war (the sixth) in Sa’da in 09 although the Huthis have very recently announced heir acceptance of a federal or confederal structure.Sanaa will not accept a confederation.

3-The anti-parliamentary elections (April 09) hand grenades & riots (ongoing) in the South & the North e.g., Hajja.

4-The election of a Government on 1st Nov.08 in the South under the name of South Arabia (first used officially by the UK in 1959:The Federation of South Arabia) with central govt. troops watching-RPGs deterred and many of the troops were Southerners not keen on bloodshed.

A warrant of arrest for 59 prominent members of the South Arabia National Struggle-Movement-Hirak(reported by Mukalla Press net on 25 October 08). Charges include Sedition, Treason and Cesession.

The South Arabia movement relies upon Security Council Resolutions 924 and 931 of 1994 for renegotiating the unity accord. If the warrant is enforced it may lead to civil commotion.

5-Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden with Yemen unable to handle challenges on the ground let alone at sea.

Yemen has only 2 vessels capable of reaching the deep waters.The previous Admiral,Ahmad al-Hasani,is in exile in London leading the Taj opposition organisation.

The fears of Yemen of the intervention of Nato and Russia in the Gulf of Aden was explained by the Saudi newspaper”al-Watan al-Saudia”on Sunday,22 Nov.08: Mukalla in Yemen is the Logistics port of the Somali pirates who pay Yemeni officials for information as confessed during negotiations for the release of the Saudi tanker.

Economic collapse will worsen the tensions and the anti-election campaign will intensify. NYMEX & Brent were below $50 a barrel (Nov.08) and Yemeni oil trades a lot lower (Yemen is not even part of OPEC).

The South Arabian Parliament of 352 Members(the National Council-al-Majlis al-Watani)will be named within 2 months and a confrontation is inevitable.

Recognition of South Arabia is expected e.g., by Kuwait.

South Arabia is willing to collaborate with NATO in the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab Strait(island of Perim-Mayyun) as international waters are subject to international protection, and South Arabia will respect the right of innocent passage. The Socotra archipelago was always administered from Aden as the British navy was well-equipped there followed by the Soviet.

Since the 1986 civil war in Aden the navy was grossly neglected.

Socotra is in fact closer to Pantuland in the Federation of Somalia and Berbera in Somaliland.

Conclusion:at this stage moral help is needed to persuade Sanaa not to take action that will precipitate a civil war.

Names of the leaders of the 59:-
Hasan Ahmad Ba’um(president elect)
Brigadier Nasir Ali al-Nuba
Ali Munassar Muhammad(who met the US & UK ambassadors in Aden clandestinely)
Husain Zaid bin Yahya
Advocate Yahya Ghalib al-Shu’aibi
Dr.Muhammad Ali al-Saqqaf(Sorbonne)
Muhammad Salim Akkush(former minister)
Ahmad Bamu’alim
Muhammad Tammah
Gamal abdul-Latif Obadi
Nasir al-Khabji
Salah al-Shanfara
Shallal Ali Shayi’
Ali al-Shayba Nasir
Shaikh Abdullah Hasan al-Nakhibi
Dr.Abduh al-Ma’tari
Qasim Othman al-Da’iri
Muhammad Sikkin
Nasir Thabit al-Awlaqi
Dr.Nasir Huwaidar
Fadi Hasan Ba’um

The wanted are members of the South Arabia Provisional Govt. and members of the Executive Committees of the 7 governorates of the South.

12 Comments »

1

Comment by abu abdaa

11/26/2008 @ 8:27 am

لك الشكرالشامخه الامريكيه جين نوفاك قلتي اللي ما يقدر على قوله كبار زعما العرب .هكذا الجرءه والاراده الامريكيه..
وهكذا هم شعب الجنوب سيظلون اوفياء لحريتهم ووطنهم وشعبهم ..

من اعماقنا ندعولك ونتمنى مواصلة المشوار معنا حتى ننتزع حريتنا واستقلالنا من اعدء الحريه والتقدم والحضاره والانسانيه اصحاب المطامع على حساب الشعوب المستضعفه والصغيره … ابو ابداع

2

Comment by al naser

11/26/2008 @ 9:18 am

Dear Jane Novak’s,
Thank you very much for throughing light upon the suffering of the deceived civilized nation of South Arabia.We have been occupied by a barbaric midddle-aged occupation under the protext of unification.
The people in Southern Arabia are culturally different from those in Yemen.For more than 130 years,GB had educated the the people of South Arabia making them law abided nation

3

Comment by Almuntaser

11/26/2008 @ 3:04 pm

Thank you very much Jane and Ian you are representing the most deprived and voiceless people on this planet. You are talking about a nation that used to be free from repression and poverty until the bloody tribal occupation led by Ali Abdullah and his ally who is wanted for terrorism charges, Abdulmajeed Alzandani.

Keep up with the good work

4

Comment by Asif Abdulkarim

11/26/2008 @ 5:27 pm

Dear Jane,

Thank you very much for your article , I’m sure you well done in this article ,it is 90 % of my view about the future of Federation of South Arabia ,I’m very happy for that , it is very Strong message to Ali Abdulla Salh and he well be not happy at all , and you become a horrible dream for him .

i m happy to mentioned the original name ( Federation of South Arabia ) – predictions of economic collapse – The election of a Government on 1st Nov.08 in the South under the name of South Arabia – A warrant of arrest for 59 prominent members of the South Arabia National Struggle-Movement – The South Arabia movement relies upon Security Council Resolutions 924 and 931 of 1994 for renegotiating the unity accord. If the warrant is enforced it may lead to civil commotion – The fears of Yemen of the intervention of NATO and Russia in the Gulf of Aden – The South Arabian Parliament of 352 Members(the National Council-AL-Majlis al-Watani)will be named within 2 months and a confrontation is inevitable .

Keep up with the good work , god bless you and god bless America.

5

Comment by ibrahim

11/27/2008 @ 10:53 am

Jane,

It is unfortunate to see such intellectuals like you and Alan promoting for the so-called “South Arabia”. A term that was initially promoted by the British Colonizer in the south to cut off the long standing relation with the historical Yemen.

The challenges facing Yemen is bigger than our capabilities as a nation. Bigger than the president, the ruling party, and the opposition parties. They are bigger than corrupt people or stolen piece of land in the north or south. There are genuine threats, we all agree on this, but we stand different in approaching these challenges. While I believe that we need to focus on education to obtain a sustainable change that come from a nation to enable them to make informed decision, I see you, and the so-called South Arabia Counsel, want more drastic change, rather a radical one, may be like Iraq.

Any change should come from people who are qualified to make decisions, people prioritize the country’s best interest over theirs, people who know the consequences and appreciate the dangers and challenges.

We need stability in Yemen to promote for education, we need stability to promote for investment, we need stability to bring prosperity to our beloved country and that is what we need. Destabilizing Yemen, by either promoting for such irrational terms and demands, won’t help us a nation. It will do us more harm that good. Just look at our long history of conflicts, battles, and blood shed under different terms and logo.

I had enough from westerners who do not get it. Let us live as a nation, let’s decide what we want. Stop being guarding us. Do you want to see Texas going to Mexico, or Louisiana going back to France and Alaska to Russia.. Do you want to see your country fragmented..No you do not, So do I.

6

Comment by Jane Novak

11/27/2008 @ 4:34 pm

You’re welcome and thanks very much for coming by to comment at the website.

Ibrahim, you seem a bit confused, maybe you are unused to the concept of a free media. I publish statements from President Saleh and the ruling party also, the JMP, and the South Arabian Council. Its important that the southerns viewpoint is understood, and all the various viewpoints in the Yemeni arena. Everyone has a right to be heard and the southern issues were among the most taboo in Yemen for years. It does not constitute an endorsement of any particular one. The fact of the establishment of the Southern Liberation Council is a big development, and it deserves media attention. For the people who disagree with the Council’s platform, dealing with the events by ignoring them is not a good strategy; its partially what brought tensions to this heightened level.

However if you are interested in my opinion, I find that the southerners have many legitimate grievances which are similar to the grievances of northerners, and others which are unique, and all these issues stem from the unilateral power configuration in Yemen. Its important for people to listen to each other. Media censorship has had a terrible impact of cutting people off from each other by not allowing people’s views to be heard. So thats why the southern issue and Saada are issues I cover a lot here, among many, becasue they get so little attention otherwise.

Also you say people in Yemen should decide what they want, and thats what’s happening in the
South. Corrupt officials and lack of impartial law enforcement is the problem. In a just world, almost the entire leadership of the Yemeni government would be in jail, not just for theft but for murder. Not only has the regime engaged in systematic crimes against humanity in Saada and targeted assassinations, but its also criminal that 10 million Yemeni children have no food, education or medical care, 5 million were officially malnourished before the prices rose. Time has run out for them. More “stability” after 30 years of Saleh, will bring more of the same. He is unable and unwilling to change anything.

7

Comment by ibrahim

11/27/2008 @ 7:52 pm

Jane,

First and foremost, let me concur with your precept and concept regarding free media. But let me tell you something, in the U.S. when people disagree, they go protest, hold banners, and organize speeches. In Yemen, when people disagree, they demonstrate, hold banners and guns and start fighting. People are different. Whatever holds in the U.S. is not always true in Yemen.

I agree with you regarding the ruling party. It somehow oppressed people from Saada to the South. But the ruling party came from the nation, they are Yemenis, they went to the same schools that every one went too.. They did not come from the moon and whomever replace them, they will practice the same and I would guarantee this. People are corrupt within themselves either directly or indirectly. Just like the U.S., when people decided to change, they elected Obama. That is what we hope for.. We want to decide when people are ready.

To be honest with you, western-educated Yemenis are afraid from change, not because we do not believe the cicrumstances in Yemen are bad, because we are afraid from the worse. Look at the whole mess in the Middle East( Iraq, Lebanon, Palastine, Somalia)what would garntee that the change we are hoping for, won’t be catastrophic, no guarantee right!!.

Yemen is like any other country in the region with incient histrory. There is a long history of suppressed hostility between its constituents and it needs only a catalyst to flare things up. Then and only then, the freedom of speech would be the last thing we are hoping for. There is a story in the pre-islamic history when guy murdered his brother’s killer after 40 years and then he said, I killed him and rush it.. which means he would still wait if he has to. This is exactly what is going on in Iraq, the long history of hostility in Yemen exist.

I believe in change that come from people in Yemen, living in Yemen. Thirty years ago, working women was a shameful act among Yemenis, look at them now, there are teachers, journalists, politicians and lawyers who endure every aspect of life. Change will come when we are ready for it.

Having said all that, I believe in changing the system from within the system. I somehow like the pressure on the current gov. to some extent as it enforces them to fix things up, but not to the breaking point when we regret and cry over the previous system.

8

Comment by Jane Novak

11/27/2008 @ 9:16 pm

Ibrahim, Thanks for your response, however I disagree. The protesters in the South showed an amazing amount of restraint, and still do, considering a) none of the issues were addressed after a year of public protest, 27 deaths, hundreds of injuries and arrests b) the security forces shot at the protesters, beat them, blocked the roads, used tear gas and arrested them and the media.

Protests in Sana’a are the same way, the Aden port workers, all around the country, they are all very civilized and initially hopeful. There is no character flaw among Yemenis that make them unable of peaceful protest, rather what we’ve seen is the opposite, a remarkable amount of restraint. The trigger for violence is the lack of discipline by the security forces and the regime’s unwillingness to share anything- power, money, judicial power, the media. The regime itself is too fragmented to anything well but steal. The water issue is a looming crisis, the answers are known and often internationally funded, but they can’t be implemented. There is no enforcement, because profit flows to the powerful would be diminished.

Working within the system is of course the best option, however the system is in reality a power center far removed from the so-called democratic institutions- Parliament has no power, it takes orders from the President. Ditto for the GPC. The power is well behind the scenes in a web at the center of which is the president. The system requires political loyalty or at a minimum passivity: any who strive for the peaceful change you and I both advocate face a high risk of become a target, including those within the GPC. Yemen is a bad place to be a patriotic reformer, an intellectual or even an efficient technocrat. When reformers within the GPC start to touch the interests of the real power centers, they are stopped one way or another. Working within the system for change has very limited potential scope of success.

Its hard to gauge from the US the desperation, the wide spread hunger, hopelessness and depression of unemployment. What’s on the rise is child trafficking, prostitution and begging. The looting of the state budget and nearly all smuggling networks are organized to the highest level of the state.

What pressure will this criminal regime respond to? Not its own people, it just shoots them in the street when they ask for progress. The efforts of the international community are met with propaganda and well orchestrated shams, half efforts and the elite capture of most donor aid. Speaking the truth you say is too dangerous, but it is at least a validation of the fundamental realities of day to day life. The truth releases some pressure in one place and creates it in another.

Clearly the status of women has regressed under Saleh, who reneged on all his promises, and who is under pressure from his alliance with fundamentalists. Women in the south were accorded equal status and held a variety of high positions in decades past. There were choices for women in the south that were lost after unity. To even suggest a progress in women’s status goes against all statistics of female political participation, which is on a steep decline.

Change is coming from people within Yemen. Did you see the streets of Sana’a today? I’m just documenting it. I’m really not trying to instigate it. My sincere hope is progress without blood. Its my impression however that the people in Yemen know the regime is killing them slowly everyday, at least the people on the outside of the ever-shrinking patronage network. I don’t know a practical avenue for progress in the current environment. Its all been tried and has failed. Nothing is getting better, anywhere in Yemen, despite many people’s efforts.

Its true that any change will bring instability, and its a scary thing. It scares me. I’m afraid for the future in Yemen. But I can understand how people with nothing left to lose are not scared by the prospect of change.

9

Pingback by The Struggle for Aden: Guest Post | Armies of Liberation

12/16/2008 @ 9:20 pm

[...] article is written by the same person who wrote “Winds and Waves of Change in South West Arabia” > The Struggle for Aden by Ian [...]

10

Comment by Hisham

12/17/2008 @ 10:46 am

An american looking forward to seeing the best for Yemen…. thatts’s what many yemenies never believe .. i am from Hadhramout and i am very happy to live within the rule of Ali Abdellah salih better than the rule of one boosted by the mericans or the nato our real and eternal enemies .salih though he is bad and his commands some are bad too but i prefer him than the coming american karazai …. i wonder of those who are happy to read your words as if they don’t see what you are really doing in iraq … oh yemenies wake up … and this is merely a life which you all leave it and go to a grave with worms and dark… wake up and say Alhamdullilah for what Allah gave you or you gonna regret it when it is useless …

11

Comment by جمال الحسني

12/23/2008 @ 3:27 pm

السيده الفاضله جين نوفاك
تحية لك من القلب
واحيك علي هذا العمل الانساني الذي اصبح بالنادر في وقتنا الحاضر نجد اناس يتعاطفون مع القضايا الانسانيه .
ولكن سيدتي الفاضله القضايا المصيريه للشعوب لا يقرر مصيرها مجموعه افراد .
نحن ابناء الجنوب عزمنا لاقامة ثوره واستعادة جمهورية اليمن الديمقراطيه الشعبيه المحتله من قبل نظام صنعاء واعلن الحرب علي ابناء الجنوب عند اعلان فك الارتباط واعطاء المسؤليه لشعب ولكن نظام الاحتلال السنحاني دخل عدن بالدبابات واستغلال خلافات ابناء الجنوب ولهذا احب انبهك نحن نبحث عن وطن لنا والوطن هو عباره عن شعب وارض وثروه تجمعه خارطه اجتماعيه ودينيه وجغرافيه و تاريخيه
وهذا ما يتصف به شعب الجنوب جمهورية اليمن الديمقراطيه الشعبيه
قد تكون الكنيه جنوب العرب ونحن نعتز بها ولكن نحن نطالب بلدنا المعروفه حدوده من المهره الي باب المندب و خليج عدن هي سيادة لدولتنا ونحن علي السير قدمن لاشناء من هيئات التنفيذيه للحراك الشعبي السلمي وفق التقسيم الاداري لجمهورية اليمن اليدقمراطيه الشعبيه علي اثباات وجودنا وحماية مياهنا الاقليمية من اي خلل ظاهر بسبب فساد النظام ولا ننساء دعم الولايات المتحده لهذا النظام ودول الخليج هو الذي اوصلنا لهذه المرحله .
لان شعب الجنوب من 14 سنه وهو يثوور يطالب تطبيق قرارات الامم المتحده 931, 924
ولهذا نحن شعب الجنوب نطالب بعودة جمهورية اليمن الديمقراطيه الشعبية وعاصمتها عدن وسيادتنا علي أراضيها كما نطالب سيادتنا علي مياهنا الاقليميه ومساعدتنا ودعمنا المادي كما كان يدعم الرئيس صالح وهو الذي اوصلنا الي هذه المرحله
لا تجعلونا نحن شعب الجنوب المعروف بمسالمته واختلاطه مع جميع اصناف العالم ان نجد اي علاقة حقد بيننا وبين ابناء الولايات المتحده الامريكيه لان دولتهم هي احدى الاسباب التي جعلت علي عبدالله يتمادي علي ضربنا وكذالك يتمادي علي خلق الارهااب لاجل كسب المال وتهديد الدول المجاوره ادعموني لمحاربة هذا الارهااب
وفي الاخير اتقدم لك الشكر الجزيل
بما تقومينه ولكن اتمنى ان تفهمي قضيتنا من جميع اطرافها
فلا يمكن ان نثوور لمحتل لاجل ياتينا مستعمر اخر
ولا يمكن ان نتخلى عن مياهنا الاقليميه
هذا والله الموفق
معشووووق كتاباتك
الكاتب جمال الحسني

12

Comment by Tupac

12/29/2008 @ 8:11 pm

Jane,

I know you are a woman, but you are DA Man, thanks for taking such a huge interest in my country SOUTH ARABIA , and when this is all over I’ll gather all the people of Aden to build you a White House on top of the mountain by Aden beaches.

please don’t mind the nitwits and keep up the good work or words in your case :)

Peace~

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