I Question the Timing
First, Zawahiri promises Saleh more fighters:
Long War Journal – Tensions between the Saleh government and al Qaeda increased after an al Qaeda assault team conducted a coordinated attack on the US embassy in Sana’a. “Saleh feared his government would be the next target, but Zawahiri wanted al Qaeda prisoners released from Yemeni jails and committed al Qaeda foot soldiers to fight the Houthi rebels. Zawahiri does not want to sour relations” between al Qaeda and Iran, “so he took great care by reaching out to the Iranians.”
Second, the Saudi branch of Al Qaeda merges with the Yemeni branch, and unrolls a media blitz.
Third, Zawahiri promplty acknowledges the new organization, AQAP.
WMRC : Al-Qaida groups in both Yemen and Saudi Arabia have announced their intention to merge operations, heightening fears about a resurgence of attacks in the region. The announcement was made in a video recording by al-Qaida’s spiritual leader Aymen al-Zawahri which was broadcast online yesterday, according to Al Jazeera network. Nasir Wuhaishi was named as the new head of the joint al-Qaida group, a former Guantanamo Bay inmate Said al-Shihri was named deputy of the group. According to the video recording, the group would carry out attacks across the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
The only question here is how credible is the information that Zawahiri promised fighters to Saleh. Its coming from “a senior US intelligence official” according to The Long War Journal, which is a highly credible site. Some analysts in Yemen insist the AQAP merger must be regime-sanctioned, and they don’t know about the reports of a Zawahiri-Saleh agreement.
Saleh is under huge domestic pressure, of his own making. He needs US and Saudi support. From Saleh’s side, the last step in the sequence would be a politically advantageous terror attack or to unleash AQAP on his domestic enemies- the Houthis or the Southerners. Meanwhile al Qaeda central would take advantage of the situation to advance its long term strategy, as it has been doing all along, or shorter term goals.
That’s a freaky but not improbable scenario.
Update: Fourth, AQAP explains the strategy to its members and legitimizes fighting for the state by referencing the 1994 war.
The Empty Quarter notes the letter obtained by News Yemen from AQAP leadership to members says Saleh wants AQAP to fight for him, especailly those who did already in 1994, and AQAP demanded more prison releases and unimpeded travel to external theaters of jihad.
The letter seems like an explanation to make AQAP’s mercenary trade-off acceptable to the members by reminding them of the 1994 war when jihad for the state was “good (mercenary) jihad” and by showing members that AQAP will be getting a good deal in return. But it sounds like the Zawahiri deal hitting the streets.
Update: Releases, 11 with 170 to follow, later reports openly confirm this.
Sahwa Net – Yemeni security forces released on Tuesday 11 al-Qaeda suspects who were held at al-Mansour prison in Aden , well-informed sources told Sahwa Net.
According to the sources, the release came following issuing official orders to the prison management , pointing out that these orders would include 140 prisoners charged with affiliation to al-Qaeda.
The sources also revealed that the freed persons pledged to abandon terror acts which could damage Yemen , its security and stability.
Yemeni security sources had declared last month that it managed to thwart escaping attempt from al-Mansoura prison, indicating that an underground tunnel was discovered inside the prison.
Just as an aside, the 2006 foiled plot on the oil facilities led by Wahishi came days after a Zawahiri rant about Crusaders and oil blah blah.
