Armies of Liberation

Jane Novak's blog about Yemen

Updated: The Zawahiri Deal Comes to Fruition?

Filed under: Al-Qaeda, Counter-terror, arrests, security timeline — by Jane Novak at 5:50 pm on Tuesday, February 3, 2009

al Sahwa

Sahwa Net – Yemeni security forces released on Tuesday 11 al-Qaeda suspects who were held at al-Mansour prison in Aden , well-informed sources told Sahwa Net.

According to the sources, the release came following issuing official orders to the prison management , pointing out that these orders would include 140 prisoners charged with affiliation to al-Qaeda.

The sources also revealed that the freed persons pledged to abandon terror acts which could damage Yemen , its security and stability.

Yemeni security sources had declared last month that it managed to thwart escaping attempt from al-Mansoura prison, indicating that an underground tunnel was discovered inside the prison.

Update via Empty Quarter: Mukallapress reports that 20 were released to fight southerners after a meeting with Saleh that included Abdulkhalid al Nabi and others.

What that may mean is that Saleh is unable to get al Wahishi to fight the southerners for him and is reactivating the older generation. A schism between Saleh and al Wahishi is a good thing. Nabi was previously reported as fighting in Sa’ada, and the Zawahiri deal as reported focused on more fighters for Sa’ada in exchange for prisoner releases.

Google Translation: Aden – Mukalla Press – a special date: 3/2/2009

Released by the security authorities of the Governorate of Aden from the 20 prisoners belonging to Al Qaeda, as alleged in its power to arrest them. A source familiar with the Mukalla said that the prisoners were released this morning, the direct orders of the President of the Republic.

The release came following a meeting between President about four days before the collections of the radical clerics of whom are associated with power Tariq and Khalid Fadli Abdulnabi.

There were reports of a deal with the President of the religious groups to fight the movement as a trap and the southern exit of the Caribbean Community, as alleged by the President and the implementation of the deal included the assassination of the symbols and leaders of the movement in the southern South.

5 Comments »

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Pingback by 11 al-qaeda go free in Yemen, take terror-free pledge

2/3/2009 @ 7:08 pm

[...] themselves or a broader deal between the govt. and al-Wahayshi is the real question…Armies of Liberation questions whether it is an even larger agreement with Zawahiri in exchange for Sa’ada [...]

2

Comment by Trey

2/4/2009 @ 10:49 pm

I’m not convinced at all that “al-Qaeda” is even close to being unified – at least not those elements in Yemen. There very well could be an attempted play at an AQ cleft here. However, because of the partisanship of Mukalla Post, I wouldn’t necessarily take their word as gospel either.

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Comment by Jane Novak

2/5/2009 @ 3:17 am

I agree there is definate cleavages within the jihaddists in Yemen. But its unrealistic to discount the impact of AQ central on one or more of the Yemeni groups, if that’s what you mean by unity. Zawahiri spent a lot of time in Yemen in the 90’s. The Yemenis certainly spent enough time in Afghanistan to forge ties. The intercept refernced communication between Saleh and Zawahiri.

There’s at least four news reports now of the meeting, so likely. Considering its Nabi among others who was there, it doesnt seem to be the Wahishi faction. It also gives crebility to prior reports of Nabi fighting in Sa’ada. Saleh could be wheeling and dealing with everybody, so could Zawahiri. Its not a straight line though, there’s a fork in road somewhere.

If there was a meeting and then releases, if the ones in prison are not charged or have committed no crime, and pledge to refrain from violence, its a normal day in Yemen.

So perhaps the “reformed” are willing to be mercenaries against the southerners, or they may not, but for sure Saleh is willing to ask them to be his own personal jihaddist paramilitary. Whether or not this was re-ordained by Zawahri is up in the air. No?

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Comment by Trey

2/5/2009 @ 7:36 am

I am still of the mind that these were probably benign – corresponding to meetings with tribal leaders is not a coincidense.

As for the WSJ report in LWJ, I don’t have a problem accepting that bin Laden Jr. met with al-Quds officials – it may even have been about the Sa’ada war or financing future attacks. But I haven’t seen any convinving evidence placing Saleh in the chain or any active dialogue between Yemen and AQ-Central. The Dhayani interview is entirely unconvincing, as he is primarily trying to clear his name – blaming the govt and arguing colusion is offered as a deflection of guilt – he’s not credible. btw, the quote in the 7th para in the LWJ article is unatributed (Saleh feared his government would be the next target…”)…do you know where that came from? The “senior US intelligence official”?

Abdul-Nabi is an obvious opportunist. I agree that hes connected to the regime in some way – but it is unclear if he is really part of an authentic AQ syndicate anymore. I tend to beleive that AQ-AP/Jund al-Yemen component are the real deal.

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Comment by Jane Novak

2/5/2009 @ 8:18 am

Well yes agreed, benign up until Saleh asks them to fight in the south. And certainly AQAP is the real deal, and Nabi and the other reformed are not in the loop.

The quote was from the senior US intel person, and the way I took it was the commication between Zawahiri and al Quds was an offshoot of earlier communication between Saleh and Zawahiri, who in the 90’s had a direct relationship when Zawahri was in Sana’a.

I think Yemen of the ’90’s explains a lot about the Yemen of today. And a nervous Saleh reaching out to Zawahiri after the embassy attack, or visa versa, seems not unreasonable. The fork in the road is IF thats true, then what is the next step in the sequence. There’s at least three interpretations of subsequent events. Maybe there was no chatter to start with and everything is exactly as it seems.

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