Armies of Liberation

Jane Novak's blog about Yemen

US Pushing for Dialog and Power Sharing?

Filed under: Yemen — by Jane Novak at 11:04 am on Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Now thats just fascinating, and it could be a rumor. The article says the US is pushing a Egyptian sponsored conference in Cairo between the regimje and some exiled southern leaders, with an eye toward power sharing. Federalism or a southern PM if authentic could reduce tensions significantly, but its important to make sure the PM is not actually a Saleh loyalist in disguise and that “federalism” is not a ploy, as all things have been up to this point.

Power-sharing (more specifically popular empowerment) is the goal, not co-optation, and its a substantial goal which has not yet been accomplished in a meaningful way (ergo- Sa’ada, the South, al Qaeda, possible bancrupcy, criminal networks.) But there has been some pretty good theater like the governors’ “elections”.

The US statement and the phone call with President Obama demonstrate theres some level of concern and attention here, which is good and frankly a departure. Among the doomsday scenarios is the one where the southern conflict becomes classified as an internationalized jihad, and fanatics line up on both sides, resulting in a bloodbath. Another doomsday scenario is Yemen goes bancrupt by September, The mediation by al Hilal is doing well though, things are quiet in Radfan and the military pulled back from most of the new positions.

Update: The regime denies any dialog is occuring.

Update 2: Southerns say it is a rumor planted by the regime to sow confusion among the movement.

Original Arabic at Newomma; and English: at Yemen Post

A US backed-Egyptian-Gulf mediation is underway to reconcile the Yemeni government and the Southern Mobility, a move which follows a few-week unrest in southern Yemen when armed citizens fought the troops, calling for secessionism and reverting to the pre-unity status.
The initiative also comes as the US voiced its worries over the situation in Yemen, saying Washington does not want a new Somalia in a region where the US makes major peace efforts.
The Emirati Al-Khaleej Newspaper quoted US sources familiar with the matter that Obama’s administration supports the reconciliation effort in a time when the US is working to bring stability and security to the region where she wants no more obstacles.
The US announces its unfinished support for a united and problem-free Yemen, the sources said.
Recently, the US said it was closely watching the developments in the country, urging an immediate effective solution for rioting, which erupted in south killing about 8 soldiers and four citizens and injuring dozens, to avoid guerrilla war which could end in a tragedy similar to the one which occurred in 1994.
On the Arab initiative, the paper said Cairo and the GCC have launched efforts to sponsor imminent secret negotiations between the Yemeni regime and the Southern Mobility, accused of secessionism plans.
The talks will take place in Egypt’s capital, Cairo, and two Gulf capitals.
The paper also said it obtained information that the last phone conversation between the US and Yemeni presidents dealt with an Egyptian-Gulf initiative for Yemen reconciliation.
It said it was told that Cairo will host Yemeni talks that will discuss topics including a proposal to negotiate federal governance in Yemen with the country to remain united.
Other topics to be addressed in Cairo will include appointing a Prime Ministry for the country from south and naming ministers from south and granting them more power as well as limiting the president’s power.
Meanwhile, Yemeni delegates representing both the government and the Southern Mobility have started arriving in Egypt.

2 Comments »

1

Comment by davod

5/12/2009 @ 3:35 pm

I am not sure that power sharing will end well.

2

Comment by Jane Novak

5/12/2009 @ 4:15 pm

Yemen is on a fast road to disaster under Saleh’s centralized autocracy as it is. I’m not quite sure which of the many potential outcomes is most concerning, but a take over by the Islamists, if thats what you are referring to, is not in my opinion is the most likely result, as most of the momentum and support for the jihadist ideology comes from the regime itself and of course Saudi Arabia. Yemen is rather pluralistic ideologically and religiously, and an authentic expression of popular will wouldn’t result in a voluntary Talabanization. The one thing they agree on for the most part is democracy, and the frustration comes from the denial of what has been promised and people have come to expect as their rights. Saleh has used the democratic verbiage to legitimize his rule and that set of principles has been internalized since 1990. Yemen has a cross cutting fragmentation that works against a national Yemeni identity, but that also is a safeguard. The fundamentalists take-over of Ja’ar was not welcomed by any means. So if power is more diffuse, hopefully, the fragmentation it will be a natural check on extremism.

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