Today I predict the future of Taiz
I will now predict the future of Taiz, Yemen. A small popular movement in Taiz emerges, striving to address legitimate grievances, for example the government’s neglect of a Dengue Fever outbreak. The security forces beat and arrest dozens at a protest, triggering more protests, which trigger more arrests. Then security forces start shooting in the air, and later shooting and killing protesters. The rest of the country has no reaction. The Yemeni regime blames saboteurs in military uniforms for the civilian deaths. The movement’s numbers grow from of the community’s sense of injustice and boredom. In a speech, the President accuses the people in Taiz of being al Qaeda, Houthis, secessionists, and apostates. The international community has no reaction. Medicine sent by the UN gets stolen from the Health Ministry’s warehouse and re-sold in pharmacies in Sana’a.
Journalists and civil rights leaders who discuss civil rights violations are arrested on charges of undermining stability and insulting the President. Some are tortured badly. The President accuses Iran, Israel and/or Yemeni expatriates of funding the movement. The military increases checkpoints on the road to Taiz where the soldiers are rude to women, rough up men and block people from entry when there is a protest scheduled.
Someone sets off a small bomb at an empty building in the early morning. The president announces it is an al Qaeda attack and asks the US for more for counter-terror funding. This is the only story about Taiz that makes it into the western media, except for one article on Yemeni women in the police department. Nasir al Wahishi takes credit for the bombing in his al Qaeda Internet magazine. Several top level US security officials visit, and the official Yemeni media says they came to Yemen to praise democracy .
Sana’a moves some tanks to Taiz. The protests get bigger but consist of only men. The leaders of the popular movement argue among themselves about who is the actual leader and split into factions. They never create a mechanism to hear the people’s opinions and preferences, instead their own children get top positions.
The governmental media never mentions the protests in Taiz, except to accuse the opposition JMP of undermining stability. The opposition parties issue a statement in Arabic denouncing the violence and that’s all they do. A journalist gets kidnapped, and the police say he beat himself up trying to embarrass the regime. The ruling party wins all the local and Parliamentary seats in Taiz, and the EU applauds a free and fair election.
After the election, democracy advocates among teachers and government workers are fired or jailed. The price of water and food triples. Western analysts conclude the Yemeni government needs more development funds. The Health Ministry never addresses the outbreak of Dengue Fever that triggered the protest in the first place.
