http://armiesofliberation.com/archives/2009/11/24/today-i-predict-the-future-of-taiz/ Jane Novak's blog about Yemen Mon, 07 May 2012 07:25:49 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 http://armiesofliberation.com/archives/2009/11/24/today-i-predict-the-future-of-taiz/comment-page-1/#comment-1571159 Jane Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:03:31 +0000 http://armiesofliberation.com/?p=15144#comment-1571159 He's either an idiot, brain damaged or has really bad advisors. He’s either an idiot, brain damaged or has really bad advisors.

]]> http://armiesofliberation.com/archives/2009/11/24/today-i-predict-the-future-of-taiz/comment-page-1/#comment-1569427 sammy Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:18:36 +0000 http://armiesofliberation.com/?p=15144#comment-1569427 The president is a complete idiot. He does not realize that almost everyone in Yemen is against him and thus he cannot fight every one and so remain in power. He does not realize that he has in fact lost the war to stay in power in Yemen and what is in fact unraveling is the end game whose end is the removal of him from power. If he does the decent thing and go by himself then Yemen will be saved from any more bloodshed and misery but he won’t. So many groups will emerge to fight him until he goes. Then they will fight each other in order to take power for themselves. What is good in democracy is that it allows the smooth transition from a government that is in a state of rot to another that at least has potential for good governance. Since the president has not allowed true democracy in Yemen in his 35 year rule this culture of smooth transition from one government to the other does not exist in Yemen so I doubt it will occur once he is forced out. The strongest group that can subdue the others will take control. In north Yemen my money is on the Houthis, they will take control of the north but can they take the south? I think they may but it’s a close call so will be long and bloody. The south will have a state for a number of years after the president goes then the houthis will end that state. The president is a complete idiot. He does not realize that almost everyone in Yemen is against him and thus he cannot fight every one and so remain in power. He does not realize that he has in fact lost the war to stay in power in Yemen and what is in fact unraveling is the end game whose end is the removal of him from power.
If he does the decent thing and go by himself then Yemen will be saved from any more bloodshed and misery but he won’t. So many groups will emerge to fight him until he goes. Then they will fight each other in order to take power for themselves.
What is good in democracy is that it allows the smooth transition from a government that is in a state of rot to another that at least has potential for good governance.
Since the president has not allowed true democracy in Yemen in his 35 year rule this culture of smooth transition from one government to the other does not exist in Yemen so I doubt it will occur once he is forced out. The strongest group that can subdue the others will take control. In north Yemen my money is on the Houthis, they will take control of the north but can they take the south? I think they may but it’s a close call so will be long and bloody. The south will have a state for a number of years after the president goes then the houthis will end that state.

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