What if Saleh Doesn’t Want Stability?
This is a largely true and a succinct overview at WPR that lays out the issues and some practical measures to reduce tensions and instability in Yemen. However the Saleh regime may not have the will or capacity to implement any necessary political reforms beyond the normal smoke and mirrors. Many, if not all, reforms would weaken the elites’ grip on power. Bribing, cajoling, soft pressure and international expert guidance have had extremely limited results through the years. What if Saleh’s primary goal is not a healthy economically sound Yemen, as seems clear, but instead unbridled power at all costs? He’s been in power for thirty years. Dictators tend to go a little crazy and lose touch with reality after that amount of time. The root of much of the instability in Yemen is Saleh’s irrational and often contradictory policies.
WPR A sensible U.S. and European policy towards Yemen would, in cooperation with other Arab Gulf states, push Sanaa to address the issues described above rather than allow a protracted proxy war to break out.
First, Qatar, the mediator of a previous ceasefire agreement, should draw together the two sides — accompanied by Arab Gulf States — in an effort to negotiate a new one. Second, the U.S. and others should make economic development and political reconciliation in Yemen higher policy priorities, rather than simply focusing on counterterrorism. The widespread poverty in Saada and the mountainous northern regions could be alleviated by more robust foreign aid and development resources from Arab Gulf states, Western donor countries, and international organizations. Third, the Yemeni government, in partnership with the U.N. and neutral regional players such as Qatar, should reach out to the disaffected tribes and channel aid through these leaders in exchange for cooperation on maintaining security. This would give marginalized actors a greater stake in the government and weaken the insurgency’s appeal. Finally, the Yemeni government must end its practice of relying on Islamist militias to assist in its struggle against the Houthis, as it only further alienates the local population and abets the insurgency.
By addressing the needs and concerns of the population of Saada, the Yemeni government could peel away half-hearted followers from the irreconcilable Houthi hardcore that aims to seize power from the Saleh government. That effort will only be possible with a deeper commitment from the West and Arab Gulf States. But such an investment will prove cost-effective if it can avert Yemen’s collapse.
Alex Starr is a recent graduate of Yale University’s International
Relations program and an analyst and consultant on Middle East issues.
