Armies of Liberation

Yup, the “Day of Rage” is really a rally (their term) for a fair election and in opposition to constitutional amendments. The opposition parties will ramp up if its demands aren’t met. Its not a call for Saleh to resign or for any substantial changes. The JMP is an opposition that doesn’t fully oppose, just seeks to gain concessions and privileges, and falls for the same tricks over and over again. Saleh and the GPC agreed to these demand in 2006 and reneged, lied and stalled for the last five years. The southerners have no reason to join in these protests. No one will benefit but the JMP.

Yemen Post: The Joint Meeting Parties plans to hold rallies in various Yemeni cities on Thursday to protest the moves of the ruling party seeking President Saleh to say more terms in office and to go to the controversial parliamentary elections planned for April alone…The remarks come as the JMP has vowed to step up popular protest against the corrupt regime demanding to reverse the constitutional amendments, which were proposed by the ruling party and approved by the House of Representatives in December. The constitutional reforms, turned over to a special committee to study them and comment on them within 60 day, will allow Saleh to rule for two more terms to be a lifetime president.

Well its on. Yemen’s next protest is scheduled for February 3 and is expected to draw hundreds of thousands nationally, if not millions. This protest was called by Yemen’s political party alliance, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP). The JMP decided on a gradation of colors, from pink to red, if demands are not met as protests progress; so Thursday’s should be fuchsia, maybe mauve. Other colors already carry too much significance.

The opposition parties include the Yemeni Socialist Party, which formerly ruled south Yemen, and the Islah party, an Islamist reform party that ranges from hard-line Islamists to hard-line democrats and has a strong tribal wing. Certainly elements of Islah (notably the Abdulmajid al Zindani wing) advocate the al Qaeda world view including jihad and child marriage. However it is those elements of the party that are in fact close allies of President Saleh and an essential component of his power. For more on this complicated relationship, see my 14 page report at the Gloria Center here.

Others in the JMP grouping include a small Zaidi (Shiite) party and, yes, Baathist and Nassirite parties. Individually their ideologies are stale but the JMP’s unified platform since its inception in 2002 calls for social reform, corruption controls and the establishment of a proportional voting system. The state reneged on promises of electoral reform following the 2006 presidential election, triggering a delay in Parliamentary elections scheduled for 2009, but there’s been no progress since. The Saleh regime is going forward unilaterally with Parliamentary elections scheduled for April.

In typical fashion, the state announced pay raises for civil servants today, the desperate scrambling of desperate men. But its likely that the tactics that worked before to tamp down unrest won’t work again; a new wages strategy promised during the 2005 fuel riots never was fully implemented, triggering teachers strikes in subsequent years.

In another typical move, Yemeni President Saleh made a major announcement inviting the opposition to a national dialog, but didn’t actually invite them. Saleh has no credibility, being a habitual liar and all. And the only question about the planned protest is whether the security forces are going to open fire on the protesters, as they have done over the last three years, killing hundreds, in response to peaceful demonstrations by the southern independence movement.

AQAP (al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula) for its part responded to the events unfolding globally by declaring holy war on the Houthi rebels. Saleh has been in power since 1978, and like Mubarek was hoping to pass the throne to his son Ahmed, who is also head of Yemen’s CT forces. Of course long term prospects of regime change in Yemen will be also determined the stance of the tribes, the Houthis, the southern movement and the rural population.

Yemen Times: SANA’A, Jan. 30 – Yemen’s coalition of opposition parties, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), confirmed that this Thursday will be Yemen’s ‘Day of Anger’ after National Dialogue Committee talks failed to materialize. Mohammed Saleh, spokesman for the JMP, told the Yemen Times that the opposition has planned for protests around the country.

“It will be huge, all over the country,” he said. (Read on …)

Lets see what Saleh slips in while the world’s attention is diverted.

Approval of organizational types for monitoring upcoming parliamentary elections Sunday, 30-January-2011 Almotamar.net – The Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum (SCER) in Yemen has reviewed in its meeting on Sunday, presided by Judge Mohammed Hassan al-Hakimi the remarks related to results of works of the technical team assigned with implementation of the technical mechanism for correcting table of electors pursuant to article 144 of the law of general elections and referendum and its amendments. (Read on …)

The desperate scrambling of a desperate man. Tactics that worked before won’t again:

Saleh directs Govt to expand social security network [31/1/2011

SANA’A, Jan.31(Saba)- President Ali Abdullah Saleh directed the government on Monday to expand the network of social security by adopting 0.5 million cases of families in need in light of the results of the field survey carried out by the concerned body. (Read on …)

That’s truly and utterly despicable. A militant (former air force pilot) in Amran killed rabbi Mahsa al Naheri on December 18, 2008 in broad daylight after threats to convert or leave. After a public outcry and strong efforts by Yemeni civil society, the murderer was sentenced to death. This kidnapping is intended to pressure the murder victim’s family to accept the penalty of a fine instead. Earlier on the rabbi’s cold blooded murder can be found here and here and here. Its rather clear who kidnapped the child, so one would expect the state to take action to find him or to pressure his kidnappers to release him.

Yemen Post: A Yemeni Jewish child was kidnapped from Reda district in Amran province on Saturday, informed source told media outlets. Yameen Ameran Al-Nahari, 8 years, disappeared while the Jewish community was practicing their religious rituals on the weekend.

Sources said that the kidnapping of the child targeted to pressure the Jewish community to forgive Abdul-Aziz Al-Abdi, who shot dead a Jewish fellow citizen, Mashaa Yehiya bin Yaeesh Al-Nahari, and accept his fine in which he will pay 5.5 million riyals. Lately, a Yemeni court upheld a death sentence on a Muslim man after being accused of killing a Jewish citizen.

A write up of yesterday’s events that includes details not in the prior post. Most of the protests in Sana’a over the last several years were undertaken by the same core group of activists.

Security abuses key activists in Sana’a, By Abdullah al-Qubati, for Yemenat

Sanaa-Armed group attacked dozens activists Saturday in the capital city of Sanaa during a peaceful rally supported the ongoing Egyptians revolt and demanding their president ’s regime to step down.

Protesters, who were journalists, rights activists and students, chanted “the people wants to overthrow the ruling regime”. (Read on …)

And the results are in. From the Telegraph: “Official results from Sudan’s recent separation poll showed more than 99 per cent voted to split the south of Africa’s largest country from its north.”

Southern Yemenis have long asked for an internationally supervised referendum on unity, claiming Saleh’s northern forces imposed unity by military force in 1994, contravening UN resolutions 931 and 928. The Sudanese example is going hearten the southern movement and provide a paradigm for the legitimacy of their demands for international oversight. Its unclear however that the separatists would win in a fair vote considering they have made very little progress in unifying various factions or developing egalitarian and inclusive mechanisms of leadership.

One dinosaur to another

Almotamar.net - President Ali Abdullah Saleh has on Saturday evening made a phone call with President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in which he got assured of the situations in Egypt in the light of the regretful events Egypt is currently witnessing.

President Saleh affirmed in the phone conversation Yemen’s stand by and solidarity with Egypt’s government and people, wishing prevalence of security, stability and peace in Egypt.

Update: Regime denies the Al Quds Alarabi report that baby Khaled is a colonel; he is a second lieutenant and was not given a military commission, Mareb Press reports. Update2: And English.

Reports over Saleh’s son appointment untrue – Defense source [30/يناير/2011] SANA’A, Jan 30 (Saba) – A source at the Defense Ministry dismissed on Sunday media reports lieutenant Khalid Ali Abdullah Saleh had been appointed commander of the Mountain Infantry Division. The source told Saba the reports on the appointment including one published by London-based al newspaper Quds al Arabi were totally untrue and baseless. Some media outlets including papers and websites like to fish in troubled waters and they are not correct because with fabrications and unreliable reporting they abuse their profession, the source

Original: Junior gets an army! One division stationed outside Sana’a and another by Bani Hushaish (Houthi stronghold near Sana’a.) Is Saleh getting worried about a popular uprising or a military coup? This kid is in his 20’s and his qualification is his bloodline not his experience or knowledge. A major part of Yemen’s military weakness is nepotism in the command structure.

al Masdar Media sources said that President Ali Abdullah Saleh recently introduced a new military forces under the name “mountain infantry division,” comparable to the First Armored Division, led by veteran military man, Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar.

The Quds Al-Arabi newspaper quoted sources as saying that the document see the leadership of these forces developed assigned to the younger son of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Colonel Khaled Ali Abdullah Saleh, a man in his twenties and graduated last year from the middle of the Royal College Sandhurst.

Other sources have confirmed for the “online source” the health of the news and explained that the Infantry Division, mountain, comprising three brigades, stationed the First Brigade in the mountains of Bani Hashish east of the capital Sanaa, and stationed the Second Brigade in the mountains of the Asama adjacent to the capital of Sana’a in stationed third in the Mountain City Radaa province white