Armies of Liberation

Yup, the “Day of Rage” is really a rally (their term) for a fair election and in opposition to constitutional amendments. The opposition parties will ramp up if its demands aren’t met. Its not a call for Saleh to resign or for any substantial changes. The JMP is an opposition that doesn’t fully oppose, just seeks to gain concessions and privileges, and falls for the same tricks over and over again. Saleh and the GPC agreed to these demand in 2006 and reneged, lied and stalled for the last five years. The southerners have no reason to join in these protests. No one will benefit but the JMP.

Yemen Post: The Joint Meeting Parties plans to hold rallies in various Yemeni cities on Thursday to protest the moves of the ruling party seeking President Saleh to say more terms in office and to go to the controversial parliamentary elections planned for April alone…The remarks come as the JMP has vowed to step up popular protest against the corrupt regime demanding to reverse the constitutional amendments, which were proposed by the ruling party and approved by the House of Representatives in December. The constitutional reforms, turned over to a special committee to study them and comment on them within 60 day, will allow Saleh to rule for two more terms to be a lifetime president.

Well its on. Yemen’s next protest is scheduled for February 3 and is expected to draw hundreds of thousands nationally, if not millions. This protest was called by Yemen’s political party alliance, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP). The JMP decided on a gradation of colors, from pink to red, if demands are not met as protests progress; so Thursday’s should be fuchsia, maybe mauve. Other colors already carry too much significance.

The opposition parties include the Yemeni Socialist Party, which formerly ruled south Yemen, and the Islah party, an Islamist reform party that ranges from hard-line Islamists to hard-line democrats and has a strong tribal wing. Certainly elements of Islah (notably the Abdulmajid al Zindani wing) advocate the al Qaeda world view including jihad and child marriage. However it is those elements of the party that are in fact close allies of President Saleh and an essential component of his power. For more on this complicated relationship, see my 14 page report at the Gloria Center here.

Others in the JMP grouping include a small Zaidi (Shiite) party and, yes, Baathist and Nassirite parties. Individually their ideologies are stale but the JMP’s unified platform since its inception in 2002 calls for social reform, corruption controls and the establishment of a proportional voting system. The state reneged on promises of electoral reform following the 2006 presidential election, triggering a delay in Parliamentary elections scheduled for 2009, but there’s been no progress since. The Saleh regime is going forward unilaterally with Parliamentary elections scheduled for April.

In typical fashion, the state announced pay raises for civil servants today, the desperate scrambling of desperate men. But its likely that the tactics that worked before to tamp down unrest won’t work again; a new wages strategy promised during the 2005 fuel riots never was fully implemented, triggering teachers strikes in subsequent years.

In another typical move, Yemeni President Saleh made a major announcement inviting the opposition to a national dialog, but didn’t actually invite them. Saleh has no credibility, being a habitual liar and all. And the only question about the planned protest is whether the security forces are going to open fire on the protesters, as they have done over the last three years, killing hundreds, in response to peaceful demonstrations by the southern independence movement.

AQAP (al Qaeda in the Arabian Penninsula) for its part responded to the events unfolding globally by declaring holy war on the Houthi rebels. Saleh has been in power since 1978, and like Mubarek was hoping to pass the throne to his son Ahmed, who is also head of Yemen’s CT forces. Of course long term prospects of regime change in Yemen will be also determined the stance of the tribes, the Houthis, the southern movement and the rural population.

Yemen Times: SANA’A, Jan. 30 – Yemen’s coalition of opposition parties, the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), confirmed that this Thursday will be Yemen’s ‘Day of Anger’ after National Dialogue Committee talks failed to materialize. Mohammed Saleh, spokesman for the JMP, told the Yemen Times that the opposition has planned for protests around the country.

“It will be huge, all over the country,” he said. (Read on …)

Lets see what Saleh slips in while the world’s attention is diverted.

Approval of organizational types for monitoring upcoming parliamentary elections Sunday, 30-January-2011 Almotamar.net – The Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum (SCER) in Yemen has reviewed in its meeting on Sunday, presided by Judge Mohammed Hassan al-Hakimi the remarks related to results of works of the technical team assigned with implementation of the technical mechanism for correcting table of electors pursuant to article 144 of the law of general elections and referendum and its amendments. (Read on …)

The desperate scrambling of a desperate man. Tactics that worked before won’t again:

Saleh directs Govt to expand social security network [31/1/2011

SANA’A, Jan.31(Saba)- President Ali Abdullah Saleh directed the government on Monday to expand the network of social security by adopting 0.5 million cases of families in need in light of the results of the field survey carried out by the concerned body. (Read on …)

That’s truly and utterly despicable. A militant (former air force pilot) in Amran killed rabbi Mahsa al Naheri on December 18, 2008 in broad daylight after threats to convert or leave. After a public outcry and strong efforts by Yemeni civil society, the murderer was sentenced to death. This kidnapping is intended to pressure the murder victim’s family to accept the penalty of a fine instead. Earlier on the rabbi’s cold blooded murder can be found here and here and here. Its rather clear who kidnapped the child, so one would expect the state to take action to find him or to pressure his kidnappers to release him.

Yemen Post: A Yemeni Jewish child was kidnapped from Reda district in Amran province on Saturday, informed source told media outlets. Yameen Ameran Al-Nahari, 8 years, disappeared while the Jewish community was practicing their religious rituals on the weekend.

Sources said that the kidnapping of the child targeted to pressure the Jewish community to forgive Abdul-Aziz Al-Abdi, who shot dead a Jewish fellow citizen, Mashaa Yehiya bin Yaeesh Al-Nahari, and accept his fine in which he will pay 5.5 million riyals. Lately, a Yemeni court upheld a death sentence on a Muslim man after being accused of killing a Jewish citizen.

A write up of yesterday’s events that includes details not in the prior post. Most of the protests in Sana’a over the last several years were undertaken by the same core group of activists.

Security abuses key activists in Sana’a, By Abdullah al-Qubati, for Yemenat

Sanaa-Armed group attacked dozens activists Saturday in the capital city of Sanaa during a peaceful rally supported the ongoing Egyptians revolt and demanding their president ’s regime to step down.

Protesters, who were journalists, rights activists and students, chanted “the people wants to overthrow the ruling regime”. (Read on …)

And the results are in. From the Telegraph: “Official results from Sudan’s recent separation poll showed more than 99 per cent voted to split the south of Africa’s largest country from its north.”

Southern Yemenis have long asked for an internationally supervised referendum on unity, claiming Saleh’s northern forces imposed unity by military force in 1994, contravening UN resolutions 931 and 928. The Sudanese example is going hearten the southern movement and provide a paradigm for the legitimacy of their demands for international oversight. Its unclear however that the separatists would win in a fair vote considering they have made very little progress in unifying various factions or developing egalitarian and inclusive mechanisms of leadership.

One dinosaur to another

Almotamar.net - President Ali Abdullah Saleh has on Saturday evening made a phone call with President Mohammed Hosni Mubarak of Egypt in which he got assured of the situations in Egypt in the light of the regretful events Egypt is currently witnessing.

President Saleh affirmed in the phone conversation Yemen’s stand by and solidarity with Egypt’s government and people, wishing prevalence of security, stability and peace in Egypt.

Update: Regime denies the Al Quds Alarabi report that baby Khaled is a colonel; he is a second lieutenant and was not given a military commission, Mareb Press reports. Update2: And English.

Reports over Saleh’s son appointment untrue – Defense source [30/يناير/2011] SANA’A, Jan 30 (Saba) – A source at the Defense Ministry dismissed on Sunday media reports lieutenant Khalid Ali Abdullah Saleh had been appointed commander of the Mountain Infantry Division. The source told Saba the reports on the appointment including one published by London-based al newspaper Quds al Arabi were totally untrue and baseless. Some media outlets including papers and websites like to fish in troubled waters and they are not correct because with fabrications and unreliable reporting they abuse their profession, the source

Original: Junior gets an army! One division stationed outside Sana’a and another by Bani Hushaish (Houthi stronghold near Sana’a.) Is Saleh getting worried about a popular uprising or a military coup? This kid is in his 20’s and his qualification is his bloodline not his experience or knowledge. A major part of Yemen’s military weakness is nepotism in the command structure.

al Masdar Media sources said that President Ali Abdullah Saleh recently introduced a new military forces under the name “mountain infantry division,” comparable to the First Armored Division, led by veteran military man, Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar.

The Quds Al-Arabi newspaper quoted sources as saying that the document see the leadership of these forces developed assigned to the younger son of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, Colonel Khaled Ali Abdullah Saleh, a man in his twenties and graduated last year from the middle of the Royal College Sandhurst.

Other sources have confirmed for the “online source” the health of the news and explained that the Infantry Division, mountain, comprising three brigades, stationed the First Brigade in the mountains of Bani Hashish east of the capital Sanaa, and stationed the Second Brigade in the mountains of the Asama adjacent to the capital of Sana’a in stationed third in the Mountain City Radaa province white

Video embed swtiched for its URL: click here

tick tock

When Saleh gets nervous, people bleed.

24 January 2011 Amnesty Intl: Yemeni activists detained in anti-government protests this weekend have told Amnesty International they fear the authorities’ crackdown on freedom of expression will worsen amid growing calls for reform. (Read on …)

There’s over 300,000 displaced in Sa’ada by the Yemeni military’s (and Saudi) attacks and bombing, and AQAP is declaring war because the Houthis forced people to move??? Is al Qaeda’s Saed Shihri trying to be stupid or does it just come naturally? Like many, AQAP is out of touch with the moment.

Well thats convenient timing for Saleh. a) The Yemeni military cant re-start the war at the moment but the terrorists can, b) It certainly shows the international community that they neeeeeeeeed Saleh, c) Nothing like a good crisis to distract the people’s hostility toward the state, d) With the Houthis in control of large swaths of those areas, the officially facilitated smuggling operations into Saudi are impacted and profits diminished, e) How can you buy weapons (and resell them on the black market) for a war that’s over? f) Saudi funds rise and fall in relation to perceived threats.

SANAA, Jan. 28 (Xinhua) — Leader of al-Qaida militants in Yemen declared “holy war” against the Houthi-led northern Shiite rebels, in an audio message posted on the internet by al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) on Friday.

“To our Sunni fellows in northern Yemeni provinces of Saada, Al- Jouf and Amran, we (AQAP) announced jihad (holy war) against Iranian-backed Houthi Shiite advocates,” Saeed Ali al-Shihri, deputy leader of the Yemen-based AQAP.

“The jihad against northern Shiites has been declared since the implementation of the AQAP’s twin martyred car bombing attacks against convoys of the Shiite rebels’ followers in northern provinces of Al-Jouf and Saada on Nov. 24 and Nov. 26 of the last year,” he said.

In the 17-minute audiotape, the Saudi fugitive al-Shihri justified his group’s war against the Shiite rebels by claiming that the sectarian-motivated Houthi rebels attacked and displaced many Sunni families in the north.

Last December, the Sunni-devoted AQAP claimed responsibility for twin suicide car bombings against convoys of the Shiite rebels ‘ followers in northern provinces of Al-Jouf and Saada on Nov. 24 and Nov. 26, 2010, which left over than 90 Shiite followers dead, including the group’s Shiite spiritual leader Bader al-Deen al- Houthi.

OK maybe they are just idiots:

Opinions: An Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) leader warned Sunni Muslims of a rising “Christian-Shiite alliance” against them in an audio message released on jihadist forums late on Friday.

Abu Sufyan al-Azdi called the participation of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Iran’s former foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki at a conference on terrorism in Yemen “is the biggest proof of the Christian-Shiite alliance.”

“America and Iran became one alliance against the Sunni people in the area,” added the Saudi AQAP leader, who was formerly imprisoned for six years at the US detention centre inGuantanamo, in a 16-minute audio message.

Azdi was referring to the annual Manama Dialogue, held in December by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies and billed as the “most important regional security meeting in the Middle East.”

The AQAP chief also warned Sunnis in Yemen that they risked being massacred at the hands of northern Shiite Zaidi rebels, also known as Huthis, and urged them not to be caught unprepared.

“Sunnis, be careful from the massacres… that happened in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen to happen to you while you are unarmed… prepare yourselves before it is too late… buy weapons… protect your religion, your lives and your honour.”

Saleh suddenly wants to talk. And reform. Maybe the JMP will decide to ratchet up their protest colors from pink to fuchsia. Watch out if they get to red. Update: Woops, Saleh made the announcement but forgot to invite the JMP to dialog.

Yemen Post: Opposition leaders will sit today to discuss the President Saleh’s call to end protests and come to the dialogue table.
The call by the president came after he met with high ranking officials from the ruling General People Congress GPC party yesterday.
Sources in the opposition told Yemen Post that they will not have dialogue with the ruling party until all decisions made by the ruling party over the last three months be cancelled.
The opposition source also mentioned that they are not optimistic about returning to the dialogue table with the ruling party as history has shown that dialogue always makes matters worse due to the negligence of the ruling party.

Update: Very tacky to pull your jamiba on a woman. That’s Tawakkol Karaman.

Emerates247: Dozens of activists calling for the ouster of Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh clashed on Saturday with the regime’s supporters in Sanaa, an AFP journalist reported.

Plainclothes police also attacked the demonstrators who marched to the Egyptian embassy in Sanaa chanting “Ali, leave leave” and “Tunisia left, Egypt after it and Yemen in the coming future.” — A female activist, Tawakel Karman, who has led several protests in Sanaa during the past week, said that a member of the security forces in civilian clothes tried to attack her with a dagger and a shoe but was held by other protestors.

HOOD condemns:

Condemns the Yemeni Organization for Defending Rights and Democratic Freedoms savage attack on Saturday 1/29/2011 at the demonstrators heading for the Egyptian embassy in a peaceful demonstration of solidarity with the Egyptian people against what the Egyptian authorities of the killings outside the law against Egyptian citizens defenseless. (Read on …)

Thirty years is enough. Yemeni comment:

Arab dictators have been playing the Zionist and foreign conspiracy theory for too long. It does not work anymore , because people have more access to news and information other than the government monopolized media, and are able to distinguish between fact and fiction. President Saleh of Yemen Just yesterday call the Emir of Qatar and asked him to restrain Aljazeera from covering the events in Egypt and elsewhere int the Arab world. According to the Dictator covering the news objectively and diverging from the government official story line only serves the interest of the zionists. Saleh and his elk lost the monopoly on news and information and the zionist conspiracy sh*t is old now and does not work anymore.

The answer is and always was a free press and the internet.

One escapes. Why don’t the drug dealers or tribesmen ever escape prison?

YP An Al-Qaeda suspect escaped from an Aden hospital, with reports suggesting an unknown group could have infiltrated into the hospital and helped him escape. Amin Al-Sayed was arrested along with four other terrorist suspects last week, and was hospitalized at the BaSuhaib military hospital. Last week, the authorities announced the arrest of almost ten Al-Qaeda suspects in Abyan and Hadramout, amid the continuous hunt for and large-scale operations against AQAP militants, mainly in southern, southeastern and eastern regions.

Yemen Post: A Yemeni court specialized in the cases of terrorism in Hadramout sentenced four suspected Al-Qaeda militants between three to five years in prison. (Read on …)

There’s government shelling, demonstrations, arrests and clashes weekly. While the government blocks reporting on the events, or tries to call it counter-terror, the southern independence movement has been demonstrating weekly and hundreds of protesters have been shot and killed by police since 2007. While the US has urged Egypt not to open fire on its own citizens, there has been very little condemnation of Yemen’s actions whether war crimes in the north or crimes in the south. President Obama calls southern unrest an internal affair. In a leaked cable, former US Ambassador Seche called “claims of disregard for local populations,” and in particular the southerners, “overblown.” A comment on this post, Video of South Yemen:

Unity is as well and fine, if everyone is treated the same, but when people of the Shimaal get all the government jobs, their towns are being developed while the South (Gunoob) is being ignored and robbed of it’s natural resources, when the people of the Shimaal come down and buy homes and lands of the Gunoob while the people born and raised their cannot afford even to rent, then only a fool will insist on “Unity”. If a cruel father treats one son good and one son as second class citizen, then when that son grows up to be a man he has to leave that household and make a better life on his own, the same way that the Gunoob has to leave that disfunctional family and make a better life for it’s people. Yes the crazy dad and well treated son will say, ” no you can’t leave we are a family” so the Gunoobi will say you keep your family, I will go and make a better family, Inshallah.

A new dispatch from the Yemeni-American Anti-Terrorism Center but I didn’t post the pictures of spilled intestines and shattered heads:

YAATC: To Community-based organizations and human rights bodies, Newspapers, agencies and media outlets, Diplomatic missions and legislative councils, In the world .. After greeting:ابو صقر الحضرمي-YAATC
We the people of the South yemen under occupation of military and brutal regime of North Yemen we Resort to you with this urgent appeal and distress call to all the forces that sponsor rights and civil liberties and all those who love peace and security, individuals and bodies.

to Take the initiative to help us to overcome the blockage and restraining of Events and Freedoms and human rights communities imposed by Dictatorship authorities for Freedom of expression and transmission of the truth to the world what Exposed to the cities and the southern areas of repression and human massacres even war crimes and genocide without discrimination Which have a terrible images of the victims among children and women, youth and Elderly,Those dictatorship authorities are keen to prevent it to the international community (Read on …)

South Yemen official escapes ‘Qaeda’ ambush (AFP) , 28 January 2011,
ADEN, Yemen — The children of a senior Yemeni official were wounded when suspected Al-Qaeda militants ambushed his car in the southern province of Abyan, a security official told AFP on Friday.

“Gunmen, whom I think belong to Al-Qaeda, attacked the car of Ahmed Ghaleb Rahawi,” sub-prefect of the town of Jaar and the third-ranking official in the restive province of Abyan, who was not in the vehicle at the time. (Read on …)

Walid al Saqqaf contrasts Egypt’s #Jan25 nationwide popular uprising with protests held in Yemen’s capital, which are led by opposition parties and therefore more self restrained, diplomatic and strategic. Yet both are protests which ultimately demand dignity. Listen to the interview or below are excerpts:

WNYC Today on The Brian Lehrer Show, Walid Al-Saqaf, founder and administrator of Yemen Portal, a news and multi-content aggregator focused on Yemeni news, talked about the protest in Yemen and his own free speech advocacy.

Anti-regime protests in Tunisia have ignited public demonstrations in other pockets of the Arab world. In the last week, Egyptians have taken to the streets of Cairo en masse to demand the resignation of their leader, Hosni Mubarak. Most recently, on Thursday, Yemeni protesters flooded the nation’s capital city of Sana’a to call for their president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to cede control of the government.

Yemen is one of the poorest nations in the Middle East, and Saleh has presided over the country’s deterioration for the past 32 years. While protesters are railing against the same kind of corruption and improper governance that Tunisians and Egyptians face, Walid Al-Saqaf said that Yemen’s movement appears to be less revolutionary and more conservative than the others taking shape. (Read on …)

When bribes, cloning, apologies and counter-protests are not enough, there’s always the threat of fines, death threats and hacking news sites. They can’t shoot protesters in the head in Sana’a like they do in Radfan and Habaylean, or bomb residential areas like they do in Saada. The state of Yemen is certainly not going to institute and implement any meaningful reforms, so it comes down to the same pile of tricks.

The streets in Sana’a are empty today and the “northern protest movement” may just fizzle out because the opposition parties are as afraid of disrupting the status quo as the regime and the people with jobs don’t want to risk their families’ dinner. Tawakkol Karaman has been leading protests in “Freedom Square” every Tuesday for at least a year. The new thing was the university students were charmed by the fall of Bin Ali, and it seems most of Yemen is chewing qat and watching TV. (The Egyptian protests are mesmerizing.)

Following the 2006 election, the JMP relinquished its claims of voter fraud and ballot stuffing in exchange for promises of electoral and constitutional reform, which never occurred, thereby leading to the postponement of the 2009 parliamentary election. But one strong factor in the decision at the time was the JMP’s fear of spiraling instability, a legitimate concern.

Yemen Online: Un-known hackers have manipulated yesterday by the last updated news that published on YemenOnline on the last events in Yemen . Yemenonline editors found the all the latest updates that covered the demonstrations against the president have been deleted .

It’ seems an undeclared war against freedom of expression and what happened means that there is control over the sites and there are those who intervene to manipulate by the news and articles using new technology ’ Jamal Al-Awadhi editor in chief of YemenOnline said.

Regarding the death threat on Tawakkol Karaman, Amnesty, UK reports:

Tawakkol Karman, the president of the Yemeni NGO Women Journalists without Chains, was arrested on 23 January for taking part in a student demonstration in Sana’a. The demonstration expressed solidarity with protests in Tunisia and called for an end to the rule of the current Yemeni president, who has been in power since 1978.

Ms Karman was released a day later and charged with taking part in an unlicensed protest. Dozens of other activists were also arrested and charged with the same offence.

According to information received by Amnesty, Tawakkol Karman’s brother was reported to have received a phone call on 26 January asking him to either confine his sister to her house or “those who weaken the whip of obedience would be killed”. (Read on …)

Its not just Sana’a and Tawakkol Karaman, demonstrations were held all around Yemen this week. The factor in determining if protests continues to spiral in Yemen may be what happens in Egypt tomorrow, and it really doesn’t look good. With the internet cut in Egypt, people are expecting a blood bath. Worse yet, I don’t think either the JMP or GPC in Yemen have a plan if the protests outstrip the leadership that called them, beyond making a deal or opening fire, respectively, as they usually do. The US can’t be caught as flat footed as it appears at the moment. Thirty years may be the natural expiry date for dictatorships.

Demonstrations and protests in TaizPublished:27-01-2011, SANA’A, Jan. 26 — Popular protests and demonstrations have expanded to include Aden and Taiz, and the Joint Meeting Parties have threatened to start more protests in other governorates. (Read on …)