Armies of Liberation

The US position has the potential to radicalize the protesters, legitimize the AQAP narrative and undermine any US future narrative about good governance. The US military-intelligence-diplomatic establishment in Yemen has formed its position after a decade of nearly exclusive contacts and information from Saleh relatives and loyalists. The AQAP threat is real, and their only concern. Its important for the Yemeni protesters to understand that the US will thwart any transition of power on that basis alone, however counter-productive it is in reality. The US is creating the monster it fears and playing into al Qaeda’s hands. Diminished US security in months and years to come will be a function of today’s wrong headed assessments. The only hope is for the protesters to give the US some concrete CT guarantees. That the US ambassador is an active participant in the negotiations, lobbying for the retention of Ahmed and Yahya, shows how distorted the situation has become. I don’t know if the US will ever understand the reality in Yemen, and its clear that it doesn’t at the moment or the implications of its actions. I’m really stunned the US policy is so far off from what is in the best interests of US security.

AFP: Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s eventual fall or his replacement by a weaker leader would pose “a real problem” for US counter-terrorism work, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday. (Read on …)

بيان صحفي صادر عن صحفيات وصحفيي وموظفي مؤسسة وصحيفة 14 أكتوبر للصحافة والطباعة والنشر

تمر هذه الأيام بلادنا بمنعطف تاريخي خطير ، حيث تشهد الساحة اليمنية متغيرات في بنية النظام السياسي التي تهدف إلى صنع حياة جديدة مُثلى لا يعاني فيها (Read on …)

Now he says hes staying until 2013!

A clear overview of the whole picture from: Walid al Saqqaf.

Update: al Qirby denies the Reuters report, saying it was an inaccurate quote. The blame game now settles on the GPC That’s why Saleh reversed his decision not to run in 2006, the GPC begged him to be their candidate as there was no one else in the entire party with the capacity to run Yemen. Imagine how much better off Yemen would be now if Saleh had kept his word, but I guess you cant think like that, Saleh never keeps his word. I really hope he doesn’t set fire to Yemen on the way out. The longer this takes, the more nervous its making me.

SANAA (Reuters) – A deal on a peaceful transition of power in Yemen could come as early as Saturday and would be based on an offer by President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down by year-end, Foreign Minister Abubakr al-Qirbi said…”I hope it will be today, before tomorrow,” Qirbi, who is serving as caretaker foreign minister, told Reuters in an interview, adding that the time frame of a transfer of power by Saleh could be negotiated.

Saleh, who oversaw the 1990 unification of north and south Yemen and emerged victorious from a civil war four years later, told tribes in Sanaa on Saturday that he would “work to avoid bloodshed using all possible means.”

He said on Friday he was ready to relinquish power to forestall more bloodshed but only to what he called “safe hands” after weeks of street demonstrations demanding his departure. (Read on …)

Counter-terror operations have been disrupted by mass protests, the article says. Are they getting the intel from the same presidential relatives/Yemeni counter-terror units that will be displaced? Or is someone on the US side just writing up the same intel with a new spin? On the third hand, it could very well be true. Two facts have been quite clear for some time 1) AQAP’s goal is a catastrophic attack in the US, 2) the Saleh regime is unsustainable. The US can’t be as flat footed in the face of this reality as they are claiming. There’s no reason someone else cant take over the CT ops, like the former southern generals or a lower level officer in the CT units.

JGN: Terror plot feared brewing in Yemen, Greg Miller | Washington Post

WASHINGTON – U.S. spy agencies have gathered new intelligence indicating that al-Qaida’s affiliate in Yemen may be close to launching a terrorist strike, according to U.S. officials who said the development adds urgency to concerns about the turmoil in the region.

The officials said the agencies have assembled only fragmentary information on the plot and do not have enough detail to issue a public warning or to take specific measures to counter the threat. But officials said the intelligence is credible, creating a scenario that has worried U.S. counterterrorism officials since the crisis in the Middle East began.

The threat comes as counterterrorism operations in Yemen are disrupted by mass protests that threaten the 32-year rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

On Friday, Saleh told tens of thousands of supporters that he’s ready to step down but only if he can leave the country in “safe hands,” while anti-government protesters massed for a rival rally.

The new information goes beyond the routine level of terrorism chatter monitored by U.S. spy agencies tracking al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, as the Yemen-based offshoot is known. A U.S. official described the recent intelligence as pointing to “a current and concerning threat.”

“We’re always at a very high level of alert and have been for some time with AQAP,” said the official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss an intelligence matter. But the new information points to “more than that they are bent on attacking the West and continuing to plot.”

The information has been communicated to senior officials and lawmakers in briefings, and circulated within the U.S. intelligence community, in recent days. A prominent concern, officials said, is that efforts to unravel the plot could be complicated by the political upheaval sweeping much of the Middle East.

Nabi takes over Ja’ar, Abyan, as he did a few years ago while Saleh was still president. I wrote some articles about it at the time. Nabi was a jihaddist operative of the Saleh regime for years. His jihaddist group fought for Saleh in Saada in 2005 and on the side of the state in 2009 against Sami Dhayan when al Qaeda declared an Islamic Emirate in Jaar, but then Dhyan made a deal with the state for money. Its hard to say what this is now, it could be Saleh playing a card or it could be Nabi making a move. Nabi is distributing leaflets calling for the soldiers to surrender.Too bad the US abdicated the democracy narrative and doesn’t have any kind of moral standing to comment about the interests of Yemenis. Meanwhile Obama is bombing Libya and condemning violence in Syria.

Trend: Seven suspected al-Qaeda members were killed during an attack on a military post in the southern Yemeni Abyan province on Saturday, security sources said. Initial reports show that police had information about the intended attack, in which a vehicle and a motorbike used by the suspects were burnt.

Meanwhile, gunmen stormed buildings of police and security in Jiar city in the province and took control of the two buildings, a security source told the German Press Agency on the phone.

“There are attempts being exerted by security forces to retake the gunmen controlled buildings and arrest the perpetrators,” the source said. Media reports say that the masked gunmen were scattering leaflets in the city, warning soldiers against fighting alongside President Ali Abdullah Saleh. The flyers were signed “Your Brothers Mujahedin.”

Someone sent this to me earlier, a bit more expansive but translated:

Masked gunmen after dawn today, this Saturday stormed the headquarters of the political security and civilian police Jaar city of the Abyan province, and seized all the equipment located therein.

According to information coming from there that the masked men said they were deployed after that, and in large numbers at the entrances to the city and in the public streets and threw publications appended to the name of (your brothers the Mujahideen) calls for soldiers to surrender and not to fight with those who they called in their statement tyrant (Ali Abdullah Saleh). (Read on …)

1- Is it the Booz Hamiltons of the world that are feeding the US wrong information because they are so heavily invested in the ruling structure?

2- Is the US afraid that when President Saleh comes to trial for war crimes in Saada that the extent of the US knowledge and support of the civilian slaughter will be clear?

3- Is the US afraid of what the accounting of the government budget will show?

4- Is there a fundamental racism that is impacting US policy?

5- Is it that the US was well aware of President Saleh’s false flag operations targeting foreign tourists and officials etc?

6- Is it that the US knew for years, for sure, that the Saleh regime was complicit in the USS Cole bombing and still continued to work with him?

7- Are they just so unimaginative that they can’t figure out what to do when Saleh and all his relatives leave?

8- Too busy with Libya? If AQAP is the leading threat to the US, how can there be no post-Saleh planning? Or was that just a deliberate slap in the face to the protesters?

9- I’m sure the securocrats are all cranky because their personal efforts over the last year, and the investment of time and money in the counter-terror units, will be wiped out. But the US’s absolute rejection of an authentic transition of power in Yemen can’t simply be bureaucratic inertia when the US got over it in Egypt. (But then again the military assumed power in Egypt, whereas in Yemen, the demand is for a civilian regime.) Over the last two months, the US belittled democratic efforts, overlooked civilian massacres and overtly supported Saleh at every opportunity and in every statement. Now the US is actively obstructing the people’s will by lobbying for retention of aspects of the ruling family (Yahya and Prince Ahmed).

To make a blunder this big for this long, there has to be something more to it than simply that the US experts are out of touch or misguided. It is crystal clear that the US policy and attitude will consolidate, entrench and empower al Qaeda in Yemen for years to come. The blowback is going to be a bitch for the US. I’m not even factoring in the impact of the US stance on the lives and future of 23 million Yemenis, that’s a whole other topic. At this point, the pooch is so screwed that its dead. The US is in the process of radicalizing the protest movement.

Following are excerpts from a rap song performed by Yemeni comedian Adre’i, which was posted on the Internet on March 6, 2011, Translation from Memri

Crowd: “The people wants to topple the regime.

“The people wants to topple the regime.”

Andre’i: “You’ve been waiting for a year, nothing will happen to you if you wait another day. Please, don’t hurry, even if the heat grows. Why should we be in a hurry? With your permission, people, why not be patient for another 30 days?”

Crowd: “The people wants to topple the regime.

“The people wants to topple the regime.”

Andre’i: “Be reasonable, people, it’s harmful to go berserk. The government is a lethal poison – whoever upsets it finds his way to the grave. They will bring in the entire army, and declare a state of emergency. They will kill you, they will jail you, we can’t run away from them… ” (Read on …)

Not the rhetoric of a guy leaving tomorrow but someone who has new hope of clinging to power. There’s so much political wrangling behind the scenes, where did the renewed optimism come from? The important aspect of the Yemeni transition plan is that the protesters are determined not to hand power to a military council like in Egypt, but a civilian one. As all these crooks and presidential relatives are eventually thrown out, the US needs to understand that what they’ve invested in some of these top leaders is lost and new relationships must be formed with the new powers. Otherwise the US CT ops will undermine the new structure by relying and empowering Saleh-era contacts.

(CNN) As for security, Saleh said to the crowd that “you are the military and security of the nation” but stressed that the government “will challenge” those who “challenge Yemen.”– Yemen’s president, speaking to thousands of people at a pro-government demonstration on Friday, underscored his intentions to have a dialogue with protesters and make concessions in order to avoid bloodshed. (Read on …)

Photo credit: WaPo, “Pressure builds for Saleh departure”

No violence reported during huge rival demonstrations in Sana’a as the pro-democracy protest color escalates from pink to red as organizers explained in January, or from yellow to red (soccer cards), whichever protest color line you are following. Click here for more of today’s photos via @al3ini

There’s strong indications that Saleh is going very soon, maybe tomorrow.

Al Qaeda lunatics release new vid: Jihadology.

The National Security accused the JMP of planning to target demonstrators and blame the state 26 Sept reported after Suhail channel reported the regime hired 800 sharp shooters. Southerners also having issues with biased reporting and propaganda on Suhail.

AP Saleh also imposed a state of emergency last week that allows media censorship, gives wide powers to censor mail, tap phone lines, search homes and arrest and detain suspects without judicial process. (ed- He’s been doing all that for decades.) (Read on …)

Update: but then Saleh made some Ghaddafish crazy speech blaming the JMP and urging the youth to form a political party and giving every indication that he is hanging on until the end.

This is what I meant earlier that both are going, Ali Mohsen won’t overtly take power. Gates better get to work on that post-Saleh plan. This is the only revolution that the people will have kicked out the president before the US switched sides to support the people. If Ali Mohsen is suddenly a good guy and kicked out the Central Security out of much of Shabwa, via tribal proxy, can we have Anwar Awlaki now, please?

Shabwa falls: Tribal leaders loyal to the youth revolution took over seven military compounds in Shabwa, all previously belonging to the Central Security Forces. Central security forces were able to take most of the artillery before leaving the compounds. The military compounds are located in the districts of Maayfa’ah, Habban, Nisab, and in Saeed. “We will not allow governmental forces to enter our region. The military compounds are now loyal to the revolution youth, and will defend the people with our lives,” said tribal leader in Maayfa’ah district.

Shabwa in total has 17 districts in total, and the four that fell today are considered the most pivotal in the province. The districts of Habban and Saeed are home to two big oil facilities are tie the roads of Shabwa with major provinces in Yemen including Hadramout and Aden.

Official sources confirmed that President Saleh met yesterday with General Ali Ahmar in order to come up with an initiative to save the country from any future bloodshed. According the an official source, President Saleh has agreed on step down as early as Saturday on condition that General Ali Ahmar also steps down. “Both sides have agreed to step down, but dialogue today are to reach an agreement over who will rule after Saleh steps down,” said a senior official source.

Update: continuing information that both Ali Mohsen and Ali Saleh are resigning. Adjusted to: After a meeting, the consensus is Saleh will resign and Ali Mohsen will pledge not to run for president. Hamid and Mohsen announced on Al Jazeera that Saleh will go into exile but then AJ took down the link. Thus the initial news that both are going is really coming to its one going and one staying. Update: more precisely They said President Saleh and Gen. Ahmar agreed to the central demand of the protest movement: that a civilian council should rule in place of Mr. Saleh, instead of an Egyptian-style military council.:WSJ

The Youth Transitional Plan and Faisel Abo Rais came up with a plan as well.

New: A deal brokered by Ali Mohsen turns control of Saada entirely to Houthis, UN sanctioned arms dealer Faris Manna is new governor or adminstrator, also al Jawf entirely beyond regime control. The move shows that Mohsen is re-enforcing his criminal networks and power base already, since he and Manna are partners, and that he has no respect for civilian authority. Who is Mohsen to appoint a governor, if not the new kingmaker? Manna and the Houthis have a settled relationship, with Manna a long time supplier to them as well as groups across the region. Faris Manna was also the Saleh regime’s negotiator during the Saada War.

News/rumors of the meeting between Ali Saleh and Ali Mohsen say that Saleh said he would step down if Ali Mohsen did, and Mohsen agreed. They are going to hand power to VP Hadi. This is unconfirmed but from a reliable source. That would be very good. In my view it would be a unmitigated disaster on many levels and for many reasons for Ali Mohsen to stay in a leadership position in the new Yemen. Others are insisting its regime spun propaganda designed fracture the movement and they can only succeed in ousting Saleh with the help of Ali Mohsen. Update: apparently the news is more accurately that Saleh will resign and Mohsen will agree not to become the new president, but it doesn’t remove him from the power equation but will give him power without accountability.

Robert F. Worth, New York Times bureau chief, stopped at airport and banned from Yemen.

This I support: The Civil Block conference, established to guard revolution and ensure commitment “to the creation of modern civil and democratic state based on the principles of justice and equal citizenship, and to ensure national representation for all Yemenis and respect for their diversity of religious, sectarian and cultural, social, political, and drafting a national constitution new harmonized with other conventions and international legislation and human rights principles and to ensure complete separation and effective between the authorities and is consistent with the principles of good governance, and to ensure that the new state of the representation of women’s full of Yemen, and the abolition of all forms of discrimination that prevent the participation of public or detract from their right.” Nice.

Saada: Ahram English: Dubai police have foiled a bid to smuggle 16,000 guns from Turkey to Yemen’s northern province of Saada, the stronghold of Shiite rebels, the Gulf emirate’s police chief said on Thursday….The consignment, which landed in Dubai by ship for transit to northern Yemen, was made up of 16,000 guns. It was bound for Saada, “we can’t say to which side, but definitely not to the government,” Khalfan said. See story above about Faris Manna.

Mukallah: Xinhua: At least three soldiers were injured in fresh clashes between republican guard forces loyal to Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh and defected army forces in the southeast province of Hadramout on Thursday, local witness said.

The first transitional plan published with the list 100 excluded (but not AMA) is also on scribd, seems an Islah product. Just wanted to link it for future reference.

Crisis Group: “Ironically, the most powerful current backers of the protest movement — Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar’s brothers and salafi leaders such as Sheikh Abd-al-Majid al-Zindani — are long-time regime insiders and symbols of the status quo.” I thought Ambassador Feirestein was engaging in histrionics when he said last week-end that the US would have problems with Zindani as president or in a major role. I couldn’t imagine it, not even remotely. But as the week progressed, I began to see that it is possible.

Saudis may back Mohsen over Saleh: Firedoglake quotes the FT:

Saudi Arabia would like to see a quick and smooth transition of power in Yemen, where Mr Saleh has been clinging to power in spite of weeks of protests and the dramatic narrowing of his support base, say analysts close to the government in Riyadh. And the kingdom is now concerned that the situation could devolve into a Libyan scenario in which Mr Saleh uses his presidential guards against the people and the army, transforming a revolt against the regime into a civil war.

“For Saudi Arabia, the end results for any mediation will be to guarantee stability and a smooth transition of power,’’ says Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi analyst. “The kingdom will not fight for Saleh … We have very bad experiences with him. The man’s survival makes no difference.”

Many in Yemen underestimate the danger of AQAP because they fail to realize that Anwar al Awlaki and thus AQAP are connected to almost every terror plot in the US over the last five years. Its not only the shooting rampage at Fort Hood, Texas, or the attack by Abdulmutallab on an airliner over Detroit in 2009, or the 2010 plot to bomb six planes with toner cartridges, there are also dozen and dozens of smaller plots in the US that never seem to make the news in Yemen. The US is under attack by AQAP. Ali Saleh’s al Qaeda could be a state creation, but the real al Qaeda live in Yemen too and they are not giving up their plans for a catastrophic attack on the US. Reuters Bomb maker Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri added to US terrorist listing, already tops Saudi Arabia’s terrorism list.

CP: While the target and timing were unimportant, the mission itself was a highly organized plot that involved one of the FBI’s most wanted terrorists and al-Qaida’s go-to bomb maker, current and former officials said. Before Abdulmutallab set off on his mission, he visited the home of al-Qaida manager Fahd al-Quso to discuss the plot and the workings of the bomb. (Read on …)

1) via ABC News, par for the course.

2) Internet wonky in Yemen

3) state closed al Jazeera and revoked its license crackdown on local journos sure to intensify

4) vandalism in Aden blame game but my sources, witnesses rather, say it was jihaddists loyal to Saleh. I wrote about this yesterday and posted pics of the scene but forgot to post it here.

5) Saleh accepts JMP’s five points but the GPC wasn’t able to accomplish anything from 2006-2011 on electoral reform due to obstructionism.

1- Forming a government of national unity to be tasked with setting up a national committee for formulating a new constitution.

2- Wording elections and referendum law based on the proportional representation list.

3- Reshuffling the Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum.

4- Voting on a new constitution.

5- Electing a new parliament that will form a new government and elect a new president of the republic by the end of 2011.

6) Gates: US has has not formulated its approach to Yemen if or when Ali Abdullah Saleh leaves office and its too soon to predict outcome. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ admission in Cairo that the administration had not focused on a future without Yemen’s president was startling. “Clearly there’s a lot of unhappiness inside Yemen. And I think we will basically just continue to watch the situation. We haven’t done any post-Saleh planning,” Gates said.

So a) even the US doesn’t believe he’s actually going by the end of the year or sooner, despite his promises, and b) I thought we always had plans. I think the US approach, like the southerners approach, is going to depend on the status of Ali Mohsen al Ahmar, scoundrel extraordinaire. But can Saleh stay without a blood bath? That’s the question. Saleh should have been brought before the ICC for war crimes in Saada.

Echoing the statement of Nasser al Nuba on behalf of the southern retired military a week ago, Tagaden disassociates itself from all efforts in Yemen except those for an independent southern state, via email. To the extent that many protesters will have a knee-jerk reaction of disgust at any suggestion of overturning the botched unity agreement, I say they are out of touch with the reality of the south and the depth of southern sentiment. Furthermore, the coronation of Ali Mohsen al Ahmar (a criminal kingpin, mass murderer and long time terrorist facilitator) as the leader of the democracy movement is bound to harden sentiments and give southerners a greater sense of hopelessness and abandonment, if that’s possible. Many assume the hundreds of thousands of southerners who marched week after week before 2011 are a mildly disgruntled fringe group, but that’s not my impression. The southern movement began in 2007 doing what the rest of Yemen is doing today, trying to escape Saleh’s tyranny. And they have paid a terrible price in blood. For anyone protesting today to condemn southerners for protesting yesterday is hypocritical and a double standard. There may be a way to create a unified movement against Saleh, but ignoring and insulting the southern movement is not going to do it. Update: the demand of the southern protest movement over the last four years is an internationally supervised referendum on unity. With efforts at reconciliation, its possible that a federal system still has a chance to work out well for everybody, but the clock is ticking.

Update: some southern protesters withdraw from al Tagheer Square still feeling like second class citizens and Nasser al Kabjee says:

“the commander of Military Region East announced its support for the revolution, but did not release the prisoners of our people in the Hadramaut and Mahara, as well as the Brigade Commander, 135 Armored in Dali’s Task Force First Armored declared by its leader, same thing.”

He also added: “We did not find even in the arena of change calls for the release of detainees, the South’s more than (1465) detention, in particular the militant great good Baom President of the Supreme Council of the Southern Movement, and this shows that dealing with the people of the south has not changed.”

The Taj letter:

There is no doubt that you are following the course of events in the Republic of Yemen accelerated in the light of the latest osculation of events and what can be the outcome of the significant occurrence we would like to assure you of our firm position on what is happening out in the interest of our people in South Arabia, who have suffered much since July 7, 1994 and endorsements by the injustices and marginalization and the confiscation of their rights in freedom and dignity. And whether the toppling of the regime in Sana’a, the entire image or make changes within the system it self, we affirm the following:

1 – after having made great sacrifices of our people over the four years since the peaceful revolution of South 7-72007, the independence and the restoration of Southern identity has become a strategic objective for our people and we will not accept to bargain under any circumstances. (Read on …)

The letter is also available on scribd and was sent to the British Prime Minister, David Cameron, and the President of the European Union, John Bruton as well as President Obama.

17 March 2011

To: His Excellency Barak H. Obama, President of the United States of America

From: The Proud Youth of Yemen Fighting for Freedom, Liberty and the Pursuit of
Happiness

Sub: The Ongoing Bloodshed in Yemen Against the Youth of Change Instigated by the
Autocratic Regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh, His Kin and their Hired Thugs

Dear Excellency:

We implore you and the American people to look at Yemen with the eyes of a people, who
share with the people of Yemen a common love for freedom, liberty and human rights and
with a strong belief that the proponents of tyranny, repression and dictatorships have no place
in a world created by God, Al-Mighty in which all men can live free and with dignity. We
believe very strongly that you have a high regard for those people, who stand ready to give
their lives so that their people can be free. We are also certain that had you been given a
clearer picture of what the proud and peace loving Youth of Yemen are being subjected to by
the various official and covert organs of tyranny, authoritarian rule and repression that Ali
Abdullah Saleh, the long standing President of the Republic of Yemen, albeit against the will
of the Yemeni people, is using against peaceful protestors of Yemen throughout the country,
you would not hesitate one moment to strive diligently to put an end to the ongoing massacre
of the freedom loving youth in the streets of Sana’a, Aden, Ta’ez, Mukalla, Sa’ada, Ibb and
every nook and cranny of the Republic of Yemen. We do not have any doubt that such
bloodletting by the murdering thugs of Ali Abdullah Saleh could ever be agreeable to Your
Excellency. On the contrary, please allow us to state in sincerity that your ascent to the
Presidency of the United States was an inspirational stimulant for all lovers of freedom, not
just in Yemen, but in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya as well, to struggle to bring an end to the
awesome oppression, to which the people of these countries were being subjected for decades
by their respective dictators and their lynch men.

In the Yemeni context, please note that the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh has over the past
thirty – three years transformed the once free and independent revolutionary government of
Yemen to a bloodthirsty oppressive dictatorship that killed the free and independent republic
that Yemen represented before Ali Abdullah forcefully took over the reins of authority by the
nozzles of tanks under his command a third of a century ago. Yes, Mr. President, the
dictatorship of the Saleh regime had then taken over the proud achievement of thousands of
our parents and ancestors, who struggled for generations to bring freedom and prosperity to
their people and to take Yemen out of the Dark Ages from successive tyrannical dynastic rule
and imperialism to the Third Millennium. (Read on …)

Protests crowd map and incident ticker.

Update: skirmishes or small armed conflicts reported between army and the Special Forces in Hadramout, Hodiedah and Aden. The army took control in Hadramout and Aden, in Hadramout the special forces are in control. In al Jawf, tribesmen overran the Special Forces compound. Three of five military zones joined with the protesters.

The Hodeidah air base defected but SF trying to arrest its commanders. English! Sahwa Net- After the commander of the Hodeidah Air Base Brigadier Ahmed Alsnhani declared his support to the Yemeni protestors on Tuesday, forces of the Republican Guards are surrounding the base, sources said. Update: 1st armored division will counter any attack on Hodiedah airbase. Update: Republican Guard withdraws from Hodeidah airbase.

At Taheer has a list of 116 military commanders and officials that defected yesterday.

Original: Rearranging the pieces on the chessboard into an entirely new configuration in a single day. Updated with original text below, complete with videos of rallies calling for Saleh to go, they also warn of reconstituting the same system under a new name. Hassan Zaid and the al-Haq party also welcomed Ali Muhsin’s defection. Its an astounding political re-alignment in under 24 hours. Where is AQAP in all of this?

al Sahwa Mass demonstrations on a number of districts of Saada, Houthi welcomes the accession of military leaders of the revolution and calling for leav

Thousands of citizens in Saada province today in a number of departments to maintain the system, demanding the departure of Ali Abdullah Saleh immediately and hand over power to the owner of real people.
A spokesman for the group, Mohammed Abdel-Salam al-Houthi in accordance with “NewsYemen” that thousands took part in rallies and directorates Haidan Dahyan and Razeh, advertisers welcomed the accession of military leaders, politicians, diplomats and all the honest world of the peaceful revolution of youth.

He called on the demonstrators, according to Abdel-Salam all the honest world to join the revolution and to spare the young Yemen chaos and sedition, and stressed their continued demonstrators in a peaceful struggle until the fall of the regime.

I don’t know which way is up anymore but Saleh’s threat of civil war has everyone jumpy.

مسيرات حاشدة في مديريات محافظة صعدة تطالب برحيل النظام فورا ورفض كل أشكال المبادرات
by جرح صعدة on Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 11:13am (Read on …)

I’m always surprised by how much the US knew. Ambassador Krajeski called Ali Mohsen a kingmaker not a king, also a radical, a major smuggler, furthering the Saudi Wahabbi agenda in northern Yemen, responsible for hundreds of deaths in Saada, and an individual who had amassed a vast fortune through crime and plunder, and that was in 2005. But Krajeski assessed that Ali Mohsen wouldn’t receive much public support due to his brutality, and apparently today that is not the case as short term interests override other concerns. Full cable here.

Guardian: Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar “is generally perceived to be the second most powerful man in Yemen”, but leans closer to radical political Islam than Saleh, according to a cable sent by Thomas Krajeski in 2005 when he was the US ambassador in Sana’a.

“Ali Mohsen’s questionable dealings with terrorists and extremists, however, would make his accession unwelcome to the US and others in the international community,” Krajeski wrote. “He is known to have Salafi leanings and to support a more radical Islamic political agenda than Saleh. He has powerful Wahhabi supporters in Saudi Arabia and has reportedly aided the [Saudis] in establishing Wahhabi institutions in northern Yemen. He is also believed to have been behind the formation of the Aden-Abyan army, and is a close associate of noted arms dealer Faris Manna.” (Read on …)

“Saleh needs to take more steps” and there should be “genuine participation” of all groups.

Washington, Mar 22 (PTI) Calling for a political solution to the current unrest in Yemen, US has said that there is need to have a government that is responsive and representative.

“We continue to underscore that a political solution that leads to a government that is more responsive to the Yemeni people is going to have to be the way through this situation, not violence,” Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications Ben Rhodes, said. (Read on …)

The answer is to recall the southern army but no one in the protest movement is talking about the south. Everything will be dealt with once Saleh is gone, but the day after Saleh comes in 24 hours.

WASHINGTON – For two years, the Obama administration has had a relationship of convenience with Yemen: The U.S. kept the Yemeni government armed and flush with cash. In return, Yemen’s leaders helped fight al-Qaida or, as often, looked the other way while the U.S. did.

That relationship is about to get a lot less convenient.

Of all the uprisings and protests that have swept the Middle East this year, none is more likely than Yemen to have immediate damaging effects on U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Yemen is home to al-Qaida’s most active franchise, and as President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government crumbles, so does Washington’s influence there… (Read on …)

Yemen Post

At least twenty people were killed and others injured in clashes in Yemen’s northern province of Al-Jawf between Yemeni troops and their tribal allies and Houthi group.

The fighting was over the control of a strategic military installation at the entrance to the northern province of Al-Jawf, which the rebels, also known as Houthis, have taken over.

At the end of battle in which has continued for two days , Houthis were able to gain complete control of the site, which had two tanks and a number of military vehicles