Yemen’s tribes begin to stand against Saleh
The only way Saleh will leave is by force, that’s been clear for years. The only effective check on executive authority in Yemen is the tribes, and they may just do it now. Beyond “the call” from al Ahmar, I am tracking down another tribal statement that the death of Saleh is now halal.
Update: its here at al Masdar: Sheikh Khalid Al Awadi said if the fighting is not ended in two days, tribesmen are ordered to leave the military and join the youth revolution in the squares of change and freedom, ie- Sanaa and Taiz. The title of the article is The blood is free after the killing of President Saleh meaning halal. Sheikh Sadiq al Ahmar said to Reuters, “Saleh will leave Yemen barefoot.”
The only thing the US can do in this situation is issue a clear, multi-sentence statement against Saleh, promising US humanitarian aid to the following government, in order to demoralize any of Saleh’s followers who are wavering. Freezing his funds would be a good step as well initiating any action at the UN, today. Then the USG, the Yemeni protesters, tribes, opposition parties would all be on the same side, a good place when Saleh is dethroned, which is coming, wrought with destruction and blood in its path, but its coming.
In the last decade, whenever Saleh initiated hostilities against domestic groups like the Houthis or Southerners, the way he did it increased the opposition forces substantially. There are strong norms supporting civilian immunity and the tribal concept of protected places in Yemen. That was the thesis of my 15 page report at MERIA, Comparative Counter-Insurgency in Yemen, September 2010.
The following is a good article as usual from Ahmed al Hajj for the AP. The Hashid tribal confederation is the most powerful in Yemen, but the Bakil is the larges. The mortar attack on the compound of the paramount sheikh of the Hashid, Sadiq al Amhar, killed Saleh’s own mediators. Moreover it was also extremely rude by Yemen standards. They are an extremely polite people, quite lovely actually.
SANAA, Yemen (AP) - Intense battles spread across Yemen’s capital Thursday between government forces and opposition militiamen from powerful tribes that warn of civil war unless embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down. At least 28 people were killed as the four-day death toll neared 110…
Under Yemen’s ancient codes, tribal leaders can declare that members follow their orders above all others. This potentially gives tribal chiefs the power to order government soldiers from their clans to stand down.
There was no apparent signals of mass defections from Saleh’s military. But some key commanders have jumped to the opposition, and the leader of Yemen’s largest tribe, Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, warned that Saleh had the option to step down or be held accountable for “dragging the country to a civil war.”
The battles broke out Monday after an attempt by government forces to storm al-Ahmar’s compound in the heart of the capital Sanaa. By Thursday, the clashes had widened to include areas around Sanaa’s airport. At least 109 people have been killed, including at least 28 on Thursday amid differing accounts on the blasts…
Al-Ahmar’s forces have laid siege to at least nine government ministries and government troops have responded with mortars and shelling. The targets Thursday included a TV station owned by al-Ahmar, which was forced off the air by the attack.
Speaking to The Associated Press over the phone from his compound, al-Ahmar urged neighboring Gulf countries and other nations to boost pressure on Saleh to leave power. He also offered a cease-fire if Saleh takes the first steps to halt the attacks.
But Yemeni authorities responded by escalating their campaign against al-Ahmar with arrest warrants issued against him and other tribal leaders, who represent the country’s second- and third-largest clans.
It could be a risky gambit. In total, al-Ahmar and his allies have tribal links to more than half the military and security forces. They would face a difficult test if tribal leaders invoked the traditional code of “nakf,” or “the call” in local dialect, which means to set aside other allegiances and follow the tribe’s decisions.
“He is the one who started this war. They attacked us on our houses. We didn’t start it,” said al-Ahmar. “This man doesn’t want anything good for Yemen.”
Al-Ahmar also claimed Saleh intentionally triggered the current bloodshed in an attempt to portray his regime as the only option to avoid chaos.
“He wants to explode the situation,” al-Ahmar said. “He is sending a message to the world: ‘Look if I leave, this is the kind of war that will take place.’”
But Saleh has struck a tone of hard-line defiance.
