Armies of Liberation

Summary: there is no civil war in Yemen or even the immediate prospect of one; the Bakil and Hashid tribes are on the same side against Saleh. Bakil tribesmen took over one of the largest Republican Guard bases, Salah has been shelling their villages for six hours in Nehm, Sanaa. AQAP did not take over Abyan. As it looks at the moment, state jihaddists were given the green light by the National Security to burn the bank in Zanzibar. The danger is of Saleh shelling.

Original: Maybe I’m jaded from all the years of the bloody Saada War, but what’s going on today seems rather controlled. Yemeni tribes in various locations are attacking the Republican Guard, and there’s no civilians in the middle. Only the state forces will deliberately or indiscriminately attack civilians; the tribes will make efforts to avoid them. The danger is not civil war but indiscriminate bombing by the Yemeni Air force. The more Saleh bombs, the less likely civil war becomes. The military capacity of Yemeni tribesmen is substantial. To follow are loose reports from multiple sources; check back for updates.

Sanaa City- Yemen Post reports no clashes overnight. Huge anti-government protests, the 16th Friday of the rev, but no protest by Saleh supporters; attack on mediators caused a significant peel away. 24 hour truce in effect after mediation, security taking potshots but al Ahmar forces not responding.

In speech at protest, Sadiq al Ahmar says mediation is ongoing and he fully backs the peaceful protest movement. Al-Ahmar told protesters in At-Taghir, “We are now in mediation and there has been a ceasefire between the two sides. But if Ali Abdullah Saleh returns (to fighting) then we are ready. We are steadfast and victorious. We wanted it (revolution) to be peaceful but Saleh, his sons and his clique wanted war. We will not leave them the opportunity to turn it into a civil war.”

Some Islahis agitating to take up arms but most protesters remain committed to a peaceful rev, and a (non-partisan) civil coalition moved to an adjacent site.

Info Min: eight ministries are in hands of the Al Ahmar forces.

*Saleh forces lose or give up 5 compounds in Ammeran, Arhab, Nahim and other areas around Sanaa. 10 am EST

Context: Backgrounder on the al Ahmar bros by at BBC by Ginny Hill .

Nehm, Sanaa north of Sanaa- 12 dead (5 tribesmen, 7 RG), dozens injured in fighting a/o 8:30 est. Three military units surrender. Commander of the RG 26 Brigade was killed *in helicopter crash. Retaliatory MIG 29 air strikes ongoing for six hours. RG 26 Brigade regional HQ w/ oversees Sanaa, al Jawf and Marib. *According to tribesmen, the camp contains a large arsenal of military tanks, armored vehicles, missiles, Katyusha rockets, in addition to a huge stockpile of ammunition and military equipment.

Tribe confiscates 3 helicopters. For more details, including helicopter crash, paratrooper fail and death of commander, see Mareb press. *Tribes retaliated after helicopters bombed villagers houses near a military position.

CNN: Defense Min official: 7 Air Force bombers deployed to Nehm, where 2 military compounds were overtaken by tribal fighters.

Locals to Marebpress : Two of the pilots who landed with their planes in Nahm refused to fire & now they are our guests

Context: Nehm tribes attacked RG in revenge for the death of mediator Mohammed Abulhoom at the compound of Sadiq al Ahmar. Nehm are of the Bakil tribal confederation, the largest in Yemen, although the Hasid confederation more politically powerful. The RG is under the command of Ahmed, Saleh’s son. This is one of the largest RG compounds in Yemen.

US delivered four Hueys to Yemen 2/2/11.

Nehm tribe on 5/13 took tanks from 101 Infantry Brigade when they tried to redeploy to Hadramout. Nehm and al Haima were bombed on 5/16 in retaliation. See al Tagheer’s article today for more on the Nehm locking down the RG for several weeks.

Arhab, Sanaa- fighting yesterday between tribesmen and RG, RG defeated or set back. Six people killed in clashes Wednesday, when fighters tried to prevent security officers from leaving two bases in Arhab to reinforce government troops in the capital, about 20 miles away.

Context: tribesmen across Yemen have repeatedly prevented the RG from redeploying to Sanaa and other protest sites from various bases. Arhab is the home of Abdulmagid al Zindani, longtime Saleh loyallist recently an oppositionist, and was the location of one of the US airstrikes targeting al Qaeda in December. I wrote about it years ago as a way station for al Qaeda training, under Saleh’s protection. Also home to Abdulelah Haider Shayer, al Zindani’s brother in law and close associate of Awlaki, who is currently in jail.

Amran- Under al Ahmar control, tribe has 600 pick-ups

Taiz- many citizens came from outlying areas to join today’s protests

Abyan- falling to tribesmen, Yemeni air force retaliates. Alnajda camp fell to armed men, ongoing fighting for control of the military brigade stationed in Abyan city.

Looting: “Scores of deaths in clashes in Zanzibar and Abyan. Military aircraft bombed a mountain about an hour before Khanfar Bdjaar with two missiles. Loose security is unprecedented in the Abyan and looted the central bank and mail in Zanzibar and Ahrachma and fomenting strife there in order to start a civil war.” See photo below.

*Alsahwa net: National Security director coordinates with militants to create chaos in Abyan and AQAP fears in west: “Saleh hands over areas of Abyan to gunmen, saying they are al Qaeda, and this delivery is under the supervision of the director of the National Security.”

al Masdar: militants burn bank, buildings in Zanzibar with no intervention from nearby military units. Residents accuse regime of complicity as Saleh fulfills his promise that Abyan will fall to terrorists.

Context: The state withdrew some military forces weeks ago, the day before the awful explosion at the ammo dump. An online statement from AQAP today regarding Abyan should be taken with a grain of salt. Salah has online stooges in FB, twitter, blogs and for sure in the jihaddis forums. Saleh also has loyalist jihaddists like al Nabi and Sami Dhayan who do his dirty work for money.

al Jawf- heavy clashes reported between al Houthis and tribesmen ongoing for weeks

Lahj- Habalean held a march and protest Thursday. The normally scheduled “prisoners day” protest by the southern independence movement commemorated the fallen, with many speakers and poetry.

Ibb- Huge anti-government protest Vid here

Hadramout- pro-independence protest, “prisoners day,” from the looks of the photos, a significant crowd attended

Marib- state reconnects electrical line, power restored to many part of Yemen.

Al-Baydah- Massive marches

Saada-Hundreds of thousands of Saada province in a massive march confirms the meanings of national cohesion, vids:

(1) http://www.4shared.com/video/BkefsRQR/___27__2011___1.html

(2) http://www.4shared.com/video/kcSxOqpb/___27__2011___2.html

(3) http://www.4shared.com/video/eFW_CBJU/___29__2011___3.html

(4) http://www.4shared.com/video/MpVRRq0b/___27__2011___4.html

(5) http://www.4shared.com/video/r5nqwyT8/___27__2011___5.html

International- G8 condemns violence against protesters and says Saleh needs to go immediately. Protest today at UN in NY, joint Syrian, Yemeni pro-democracy.

Comic relief: even UBL thought Awlaki is an idiot. Documents indicate UBL was in direct contact with Attiyatullah al-Libi and dismissed Awlaki as AQ leader in Yemen, ie-AQAP wanted to name him as head and UBL nixed it.

Australian: Bin Laden’s Yemeni wife tipped off the US or was tracked, older wives accuse. “The joke in Pakistan is that Bin Laden called in his location to CIA because he was being driven mad cooped up for five years with so many wives and children.”

Abyan National Bank

The Saleh regime topple watch has begun: Tomorrow’s Friday pro-Saleh rally has been canceled and no Saleh speech either. Republican Guard commander defected and called to the troops to join the protests. Tribal mediators working on exit for Saleh after tribes declared Saleh’s blood is free. Tomorrow will be the 16th week of peaceful protests in Yemen, and likely see the largest yet.

Original: After Sheikh Sadiq al Ahmar said today Saleh is leaving Yemen barefoot, Ali Mohsen al Ahmar says Saleh doens’t even have a fig leaf to cover himself with. At Mareb Press Ali Mohsen also said in an interview that Saleh orchestrated the assassination of Sheikh Shabwani in Marib who was thought killed by a US drone. Maybe Saleh deliberately misled the US, like when Saleh gave the Saudi Air Force the coordinates Ali Mohsen’s camp as a Houthi compound. I hope Mohsen keeps talking.

Revealed Mohsen that President Saleh is behind the machinations of the events of the stone that targeted elders Taiz and it is who is behind the events of 13 January 1986 that led to the fighting between factions of the Socialist Party, said: “This feline is raised Vtantha and fueled its horrors among our fellow members of the Socialist , a mastermind of the assassination of Sheikh Jaber Shabwani who sent in the mediation of Marib. “

Saleh really has a long history of killing or jailing mediators. Update: Another phenomenal post in the Trench, small teaser:

This dependency encouraged his bad behavior, antagonized Yemen’s populace, accelerated the revolution, and expanded AQAP’s area of operations. (Read on …)

Colonel Ali Ali Shaddadi Ahdillat commander in the Republican Guard issues an important message to his brothers and his colleagues, Republican Guard officers and members of the Republican Guard units, and says Saleh is a butcher and a killer and not to follow his orders anymore. Link

This may be the straw that broke the camels back. Its quite significant. The Republican Guards are the unit headed by Saleh’s son Prince Ahmed. Coupled with the earlier tribal excommunication, I’m nearly optimistic for a quick resolution. Tick tock.

What is that noise? The creaking groaning dying throes of the Saleh regime. The military sent out a text message; tomorrow’s pro-Saleh demonstration in Sanaa should be rather quiet. Update: tomorrows pro-Saleh demo canceled.

If he is going without being killed, this is the way–tribal mediation. The mediators working to end the fighting between Saleh’s forces and al Ahmar’s are also working on an exit strategy for Saleh. See the earlier posts today for more on the tribes as the only check on executive authority in Yemen. This is the one negotiation Saleh can’t BS his way out of.

I’m not really worried about a civil war among the population, ongoing fighting between the forces maybe. Yemenis remember better than anyone the bloodbaths that came before, and this new generation has internalized principles of democracy.

Socially the protesters became akin to a new tribe, but with a protected status by all tribes, like every Yemeni woman has a protected status. When snipers murdered 58 protesters on March 18, literally half the regime resigned as a matter of personal honor not as a political statement. When Saleh shelled Sheikh al Ahmar’s house, it was another affront to the personal honor of every tribesman in Yemen, even opposing tribes. I’m hoping he’s gone by tonight. Earlier Saleh ordered the arrest of Sheikh Sadia al Hamar and his brothers. It doesn’t mean much.

Update: The mediators are Abdulqader Hilal and other prominent sheikhs including Fayez Mannaa, Ismail Abu Huriah and Awad Ba Wazir.

3feb.com: (Saleh decides to leave) sources: the new mediation work to find a way out of the Sana’a airport security for his family
(Read on …)

The only way Saleh will leave is by force, that’s been clear for years. The only effective check on executive authority in Yemen is the tribes, and they may just do it now. Beyond “the call” from al Ahmar, I am tracking down another tribal statement that the death of Saleh is now halal.

Update: its here at al Masdar: Sheikh Khalid Al Awadi said if the fighting is not ended in two days, tribesmen are ordered to leave the military and join the youth revolution in the squares of change and freedom, ie- Sanaa and Taiz. The title of the article is The blood is free after the killing of President Saleh meaning halal. Sheikh Sadiq al Ahmar said to Reuters, “Saleh will leave Yemen barefoot.”

The only thing the US can do in this situation is issue a clear, multi-sentence statement against Saleh, promising US humanitarian aid to the following government, in order to demoralize any of Saleh’s followers who are wavering. Freezing his funds would be a good step as well initiating any action at the UN, today. Then the USG, the Yemeni protesters, tribes, opposition parties would all be on the same side, a good place when Saleh is dethroned, which is coming, wrought with destruction and blood in its path, but its coming.

In the last decade, whenever Saleh initiated hostilities against domestic groups like the Houthis or Southerners, the way he did it increased the opposition forces substantially. There are strong norms supporting civilian immunity and the tribal concept of protected places in Yemen. That was the thesis of my 15 page report at MERIA, Comparative Counter-Insurgency in Yemen, September 2010.

The following is a good article as usual from Ahmed al Hajj for the AP. The Hashid tribal confederation is the most powerful in Yemen, but the Bakil is the larges. The mortar attack on the compound of the paramount sheikh of the Hashid, Sadiq al Amhar, killed Saleh’s own mediators. Moreover it was also extremely rude by Yemen standards. They are an extremely polite people, quite lovely actually.

SANAA, Yemen (AP) - Intense battles spread across Yemen’s capital Thursday between government forces and opposition militiamen from powerful tribes that warn of civil war unless embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh steps down. At least 28 people were killed as the four-day death toll neared 110…

Under Yemen’s ancient codes, tribal leaders can declare that members follow their orders above all others. This potentially gives tribal chiefs the power to order government soldiers from their clans to stand down. (Read on …)

President Saleh never had any intention of stepping down and played the international community very well for three months. He drew out negotiations, and reneged three times on signing the agreement he dictated to the US and Gulf countries. Then he attacked the mediators, besieging the US ambassador on Sunday with an armed mob of ruling party loyalists. Monday Saleh began shelling the compound of his main tribal rival, Sadiq al Ahmar in Sanaa the capital.

Clashes raged for hours. Tuesday Saleh sent his negotiators to the al Ahmar home (some say with a tracking device serendipitously planted on one of them) to mediate an end to the violence that he started. Then he bombed the compound, killing his own people who were still in the home. This of course triggered more clashes between the military and defected military with tribesmen on both sides that continues today. Saleh is claiming to be the victim, another standard tactic in the wake of state violence.

Saleh is now showing his true face to the world and his intention to retain power at all costs. President Saleh devastated the northern province of Saada, bombing for years (2004-2010), displacing 300,000 citizens and then blocking aid to the internal refugees. He ravaged the south and openly slaughtered hundreds of unarmed pro-independence protesters (2007-2010). He will do it to the capital Sana’a without a twinge of conscience.

After three months of nationwide pro-democracy protests, over 100 casualties mostly by head shots, and over 10,000 injuries among the unarmed protesters, yesterday President Obama finally said, as a one line throw-in during a press conference in the UK, “We call upon President Saleh to move immediately on his commitment to transfer power.” The only way Saleh will go is by force. The important impact of a clear Obama statement, if it ever occurs, will be to demoralize Saleh’s supporters not encourage any rationality on Saleh’s part.

During Obama’s hour long Middle East policy speech a week ago, huge throngs of protesters around Yemen waited as Obama ticked through the nations in the region, expounding on each. When he got to Yemen, Obama called Saleh his friend. Yemen also only had one line in that speech: “President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power.” The deal Saleh turned down afforded him immunity from prosecution and scheduled presidential elections in two months, a shoe-in for his son, Ahmed, head of the Republican Guard and the counter-terror unit.

Update, US position remains wimpy. There is a blackout of both news and electricity in Sanaa, besides the language barrier. This limp statement is not going to even penetrate: May 26 (Reuters) – The United States condemns the violence in Yemen and believes it underscores the need for a peaceful transfer of power, White House deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said on Thursday.

Yemen Post: The head of office for Sadeq Ahmar, Abdul Qawi Qaisi said that more than 50 people were killed and 110 injured in last nights clashes between Hashed tribes and republican guards.

Clashes continued for more than eight hours near Sana’a International Airport and in Hasaba zone of Sana’a.

The Defense Ministry announced earlier today that four more were killed yesterday evening by Hashed tribes.

Tribes in Arhab confirmed that nine tribesmen were killed in clashes between Arhab tribesmen and republican guards last night.

The government has not yet announced its casualties from soldiers.

“5 rockets turned the dark night into daylight around 3 am today in Sanaa these rockets are supplied by the US to saleh and he used them on Sh. Sadeq’s house today they are preventing the people from leaving Sanaa, and the Hasaba district looks like Gaza or Beirut in the 80’s with buildings riddled with ammunition holes today the clashes did not stop and there are un confirmed roomers that Ahmed Ali Saleh was shot and seriously injured by one of his body guards.”

Al Jazeera

The kidnapping

Kamal was with Abdelillah when he was first kidnapped in July 2010. Two cars pulled up and eight men in civilian clothes carrying guns violently forced him out of the car.

“You crossed red lines in your statements on satellite television and if you don’t listen to what we say and understand the message we will destroy your life,” they told him.
(Read on …)

Updates: Saleh shelling Interior Ministry after al Ahmars took it over, while IM Mutahar Rashad Al-Masri is still trapped inside. State Department orders nonessential US diplomats to leave Yemen as security deteriorates. Video from inside al Ahmar compound. Kawlan tribes denounce attack on Al Ahmar compound and deaths caused by the hysterical Ali Abdullah Saleh. Blackwater trained the RG? No no no.

Original: “It seems to be all out war from the Republican Guards bases in Arhab North of Sana’a to the First Armored Division Headquarters and at various areas of Sana’a. As predicted the attack on Sheikh Sadiq was just an entry point to Saleh’s own self declared civil war, North and North West Sana’a is rocked by ongoing explosions of various ordnance.”

The importance of the Obama statement is not to convince Saleh but his supporters that the game is up. The following article neglects entirely to mention that Saleh reneged for the third time Sunday, murdered his own mediators and began shelling Tuesday. Today’s fighting remains localized between the two militias. Electricity is very low and water scarce.

AFP: US President Barack Obama on Wednesday repeated his call for Yemen’s leader Ali Abdullah Saleh to quit as clansmen loyal to a powerful opposition tribal chief seized buildings and battled security forces in Sanaa.

“We call upon President Saleh to move immediately on his commitment to transfer power,” Obama said at a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron in London.

Three days of fighting has killed more than 44 people in the Yemeni capital, according to an AFP tally based on reports by medics, the government and tribesmen.

To be connected with the ongoing Yemen Revolution updates (news, photos, videos and live channels), please follow-up the fresh posts via the links below. Post-revolutionary sites:
On facebook: (Read on …)

After three months of bloody protests, millions of Yemenis remain steadfast—and on the streets—throughout the nation. They want Saleh and his entire regime gone. In Sanaa, skirmishes have broken out between opposing tribes and military factions. President Saleh initiated the hostilities after locking down one set of mediators, including the US Ambassador, and shelling another. Saleh’s refusal to accept the golden parachute provided by the GCC is no surprise. He will fight to the bitter end and use any tactic necessary to remain in power. The protesters understood this from day one.

The Yemeni people will succeed in overthrowing Saleh. The day after Saleh, this generation of Yemeni revolutionaries must begin the arduous work of building the civil democratic Yemen of their demands. Once the revolution has succeeded, it must be protected. One way is to disperse power at the local level.

The following is a twelve month timetable for the period following the removal of President Saleh from power. This proposal aims at creating mechanism that fulfill the demands of the Yemeni revolutionary youth. This structural proposal is guided by the principle of equal rights for all Yemenis. The proposal assumes that the structure of the interim government must be built from the ground up with constant focus on the needs of individual Yemenis. The re-balancing of power that is required is not among various groups and power players, but between the people and all their institutions.Self-determination on the national level can only be accomplished by empowerment on the local level.

Community Organizing
The estimated cost of this Interim Transition Mechanism (ITM) over three years is $2.4 billion dollars, drawn from donor funds pledged at the 2006 donors’ conference. The ITM requires a nationwide biometric census. The census will be one stop procedure for families and individuals that includes issuing birth certificates, voter registration cards, school registration including adult literacy programs, and receiving job applications. Perhaps the most essential requirement in post-revolutionary Yemen is credible elections. Early parliamentary and presidential elections must be built on accurate voter rolls. Equally important, President Saleh has sucked the nation dry and many citizens are on the verge of starvation. The census will also identify the most vulnerable Yemenis and urgent community needs.

The ITM requires Yemeni activists and residents to establish Community Centers (CC) in every district and village. The CC will also accept work applications from adult Yemenis, male and female, willing to reconstruct the nation at low pay following the disaster of Saleh’s tenure. The Community Centers will also process applications for micro loans and community grants.

Micro-loans are small loans to individuals to start their own businesses. Micro loans are the most practical way to kick-start the economy. Grants for community reconstruction should become available after local communities assess the most urgent needs in each village and district. Mass corruption is systemic at all levels of the Saleh administration and pervades the norms of business and civil society. Micro-reconstruction limits the potential of mass theft by disbursing donor funds in small increments. All community reconstruction projects must publish their budgets and maintain a high level of transparency. Thus the ITM also requires nationwide internet broadband service and standardized national accounting practices as well as a help center in each community.

The CC will establish Community Medical Centers (CMS) to assess immediate and long term medical needs. CMS will provide oversight on the distribution international medical aid and provide medical education programs. An emphasis will be placed on establishing clinics, dialysis centers and providing reproductive services. As a further check on corruption, a Community Media Center will be established to aid in the formation of news outlets for local and national news and independent broadcast ventures and newspapers.

Provincial and regional organization
The ITM places a moratorium on all political activity for three months, including the southern independence movement. The ITM is not an effort to undercut the Southern Movement or deny the legitimate right of southerners to seek independence. The ITM is a party-neutral, apolitical structure that seeks to provide basic services to all Yemenis before political activity resumes. The GPC will be disbanded for two years, after which it may reorganize. The JMP and other established parties may resume activity after three months; however, the development of new political parties is strongly encouraged, should be facilitated at the CCC and may begin immediately after Saleh’s departure. Female quotas are required for the first two election cycles.

Six months after Saleh’s departure, governors and local council elections will be held based on accurate voter rolls. Elections will operate on a proportional basis (the list system). The “winner takes all” or “first past the post” system discriminates heavily against small parties and independents and will be discarded. Judges and citizen-run School Boards will also be elected in each district at this time. Recall petitions for elected officials including judges can be filed by any citizen at the Community Center. Local elections will be held every two years to encourage representatives accountability to the communities they serve. Monthly town hall style meetings are a way to encourage governmental transparency and the free flow of information that is in keeping with local norms.

Governors will each nominate an individual of high integrity that will act in the national, not provincial, interest to form the Supreme Commission on Elections and Referendums (SCER) that will oversee parliamentary and presidential elections. Nominees can be rejected by 75% of the governors.

The elected local councils (LC) will partner with the Community Centers and Community Medical Centers. Local Councils administrative role will include oversight of the police, local finances and elections. Parliamentary and presidential elections will be held six month after local council elections, -ie, one year after the fall of Saleh and the GPC will be ineligible for the first election. A referendum on southern independence will be held at the same time, with the options of independence, unity or a vote again at the next election. The referendum will be part of every election until such time as 75% of southerners have reached a consensus.

Security and counter-terror
The Yemen Revolutionaries demand the “rebuilding of the National and Political Security apparatuses and the Intelligence Agency to merge all of them into a single national security apparatus.” Counter-terror concerns are a high priority of the international community. The US designated and then froze a multi-million dollar security package for Yemen. These funds should be released and directed toward the development of a new intelligence service, restructuring military and training local police.

The southern army shall be recalled under their existing rank to fill the counter-terror void in the interim period as well as aid in restructuring the Yemeni military services. The Retired Southern Military organization has Russian military training and is disconnected from the corrupt ventures of the current military including the trafficking of oil, persons and weapons. The RTM has demonstrated a greater respect for civil rights and civilian immunity than the existing security services. The RSM is also familiar with the terrain the al Qaeda is using to plan mass murder of civilians abroad. Abdelmalidk al Houthi is encouraged to designate liaisons, at a minimum, to the military and counter-terror units. The insertion of the RSM and the Houthi commanders will act as a double- check against al Qaeda penetration which is quite substantial in the existing forces.

Reconciliation
All tribal wars will be deemed to have an honorable resolution and will end. Tribesmen will endeavor to utilize the court system to resolve disputes. The ITM relies on tribesmen and all citizens to create Community Centers according to local norms and within national parameters.

Reconciliation between the GPC and the revolutionary youth is a high priority. While iit is important to establish a war crimes tribunal regarding crimes against Yemeni citizens, quick trials and death sentences should be avoided, except perhaps for those with the highest levels of guilt who may also be prosecuted by the International Criminal Court. Those tried and found guilty of low level corruption should perform community service instead of prison time.

Southern demands for equal rights, respect for southern identity and history, and a referendum shall be fulfilled. Southern independence representatives have a duty to their local constituents including non-supporters to place medical needs ahead of political demands in the interim period.

Special efforts will be made locally and nationally toward marginalized groups and vulnerable minorities such as the Akhdaam, Somalis, Bahais, Jews and Christians. With a foundation of equal rights for all Yemenis, the ITM requires equal protections for all races and religions without institutionalized or normative discrimination by the majority.

The Day after Saleh
The Yemeni Revolutionary Youth demand a nine person interim trustee council of virtuous persons to oversee the interim period until parliamentary and presidential elections are held. As the protesters state, major interest groups must sign off on the members, but the council should be apolitical and act in the best interest of the nation not individual groups or identity. Large constituencies of Yemenis are already organized through the JMP. National Dialog Committee, Southern Movement, Houthis and tribal coalitions. Each of these organizations is required to approve credible candidates within 48 hours of Saleh’s departure and to support, not undermine, the Interim National Council’s efforts.

The trustees will immediately establish nationwide standards and procedures for the Community Centers. Upon receipt of community assessments, trustees will designate areas of rehabilitation including health, electricity, economic development, civil rights and prisons. They will select the most qualified managers to oversee the work force identified through the applications received at the Community Centers during the census period. While different provinces and communities have varying needs, all procedures must be applied uniformly until such point that the Community Medical Center in Dhamar is identically equipped to that in Taiz, for example.

The National Trustees will organize and oversee many important tasks like an audit of the government budget. A review of the constitution should be performed to identify and suspend discriminatory and dangerous articles, like those pertaining to the media, but constitutional revisions should be undertaken by a duly elected parliament. However, the primary function of the National Trustees should be to retain focus on building and empowering bureaucratic, administrative and representative structures at the most local level. This work cannot be done without the participation of millions of Yemenis. And it is this participation precisely that will prevent a new tyranny from emerging in Yemen. -Jane Novak

feedback- (Read on …)

Do not ask Saleh to leave. Interrupt programing, get yourself on TV Mr. President and say:

“The United States supports the popular revolution in Yemen and the protesters’ goal of self determination. We admire your courage and your peacefulness. As a nation we will be here to support you when you have won. As a people we are praying for you now. Thank you and God Bless the United States and the people of Yemen.”

Delay is only making it worse, as it has thus far. Saleh will not survive. The people have won already. Join the team. Please.

Saleh locked down US Ambassador Feierstein and the other international mediators on Sunday with armed men. He killed his own mediators today. There’s going to be a battle. Each protester knew that when they took to the streets. Saleh the lunatic will not go peacefully, there is no solution, but he will go. This is Yemeni politics.

Saleh has a substantial coalition lining up against him that will try to avoid civilian causalities. Ali Abdullah Saleh, our friend and partner against al Qaeda, slaughters his citizens without conscience regularly. In the last days, he will cause civilian casualties, as he has thus far. They are all still there. Lets get the US on the winning side. Its late.

Update: This is a good beginning, “We call upon President Saleh to move immediately on his commitment to transfer power,” Obama said, in a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron in London.

Qamish is now with the revolution. The documents from the interior ministry were seized and are in secure location.

1) They used a Howitzer canon to strike the al Ahmar house, where Saleh’s mediation committee was on the phone with him negotiating a cease fire. The committee are all injured with Sh. Mohammed Mohammed Abu-Louhoom announced dead a few minutes ago. PSO head Galeb Al-Qamesh is seriously injured. The attack brought new tribes into the battle on the side of the protester when their sheikhs were attacked. The ministries of Local Authority and Education fell. (Read on …)

The Interior Ministry says nine but other reports go higher. The Yemen Post reports 40 tribesmen, 15 policemen and four civilians. The Defense Ministry reports, “An official security source said Tuesday that al-Ahmar sons and their armed gangs attacked the Interior Ministry, Rescue Police camp, Saba News Agency, Ministry of Tourism, Yemenia airlines building…” The residents displaced by the fighting have no where to go.

Irish Times: Yemeni loyalist forces fought street battles with guards from a powerful tribal federation whose leader has sided with protesters demanding an end to President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s rule, witnesses said today

The opposition warned that such attacks by loyalists, which residents said targeted the mansion of tribal leader Sadiq al-Ahmar, could spark a civil war. (Read on …)

To ICRC, Humanitarian Orgs and Diplomatic Missions, please call for cease fire to safely evacuate the civilians in Al Hassaba Zone, Sana’a

May 24th, 201
Since yesterday May 23, armed conflict between the troops of the Saleh regime and the forces of Sheikh Al Ahmmer in Al Hassaba Zone is still raging and rising strongly. There are hundreds of armed men from both sides fighting with small arms and heavy weapons using the houses and government facilities like schools and civil services offices as war bases. The armed conflict has spread to the neighborhoods and sub-streets of Al Hassaba Zone which led to closure of shops and cut off water and electricity. Therefore people started to move down from their home to safer places in Sana’a including the Square of Change seeking for protection and shelter. The conflict has resulted to number of causalities (number of causalities and deaths among civilians including women and children).

We, Watan Coalition- Women for Social Peace, call the ICRC, humanitarian organizations operating in Yemen, and organizations of the world and the international community to make an immediate pressure to end this violence in order to preserve the safety of civilians. We also invite them to make all necessities to protect the peaceful demonstrators in the Change Square and to help them with their aid work for providing IDPs of Al Hassaba with shelter, food and medication.

Last update: Tribal mediation succeeded in ending the clashes. Saleh’s mediators were Sanhan Sheikh, Ahmad abu Horia and the Ghalib Al-Qamish, the head of the Political Security.

al Sahwa reports that heavy clashes using a variety of weapons have been raging in the vicinity of Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar’s house in Hasaba, Sana’a between Saleh’s militia, Republican Guards, Central Security and Sadeq’s guards for at least 2 hours as of 9:30am EST. Sadiq is paramount sheik of the Hasid tribal confederation, and in theory is Saleh’s sheik since Abdullah al Ahmar died. Update: the sides were CF and RG vs. Sadiq guards (Hashid tribesmen) and some military forces from Ali Mohsen al Ahmar.

Yemen Post reports 18 dead: Clashes started at 1pm local time when armed gunmen backed by central security forces attacked the residence of Yemen’s powerful Hashid tribe leader, Sheikh Sadeq Abdullah Ahmar eyewitnesses said. At least 100 gunmen have been shooting directly at the residence for hours now…

Headquarters for Yemenia airways in Sana’a caught on fire after tens of armed gunmen shot directly at the building, eyewitnesses said. In addition, tens of live bullets are being shot at Saba News Agency and dozens of employees are surrounded inside the building…Eyewitnesses and confirmed sources said that Ahmar tribes have seized the Commerce and trade Ministry building in Sana’a.

I believe the SABA building and likely Yemenia are being used by the CS to shoot from, which is why they are being shot at; its not an attack on the state media per se. Its going on for more than four hours already.

Updates: -Saleh attacked with the Najda (Emergency Police) as well as elements of Central Security and Republican Guards and hired mercenaries. – RPGs fired at Interior Ministry. -Salehs forces withdrew but its not fully over. -Injured includes a child - Video here -YPost: Hashed tribes seize the ruling GPC headquarters in Sana’a and Ministry of Trade and Commerce & 600 armed Ahmar tribesmen -road to the US embassy still blocked by armed GPC members

Timeline from a friend:

Republican Guard(RG) & CSF units attacked sh.Sadeq’s house at 1:12pm local time at the time leaders from the JMP were inside the house, sh. Sadeq was not.
at 3:00 pm the entire area was secured by sh.Sadeq’s men
the Al-Saeeda Airlines building fifth floor was in flames.
the RG are sending reinforcements to secure the ministry of interior which is now in flames.
At 5:00pm the Sh’s men have secured the building of the GPC head quarters, Ministry of trade, Saba news agency and were advancing towards the ministry of telecommunication.
at 5:30pm bombardment using Doshka, Tanks, and cannons are heard in the area.
sh. Hameed Al-Ahmer moved the past couple of days from his house in Hadda to the same house.
Sh. Sadeq issued the “Tribal Call” which in effect calls every tribesmen to join him in defending his honor, attacking one’s house is a great dishonor in tribal law.
at 6:30pm new clashed erupted at the entrance to Sanaa at the Azreqaen point as thousands of tribesmen are answering the tribal call are flooding towards Sanaa.

Both sides are a mix of military/security, tribesmen and militia. As long as the state does not attack in Saada, maybe this can wind itself down. There are thousands of troops on the Marib/ al Jawf border, last estimate was over 10,000, eight brigades if that makes sense, maybe divisions. Update: the troops are still in the same locations along the border and road to Sanaa where they have been for more than two months. Fierce clashes are continuing in al Jawf though

Saleh has been storing weapons in schools and government buildings for a week supposedly (including possibly the Ramah girls school). Beyond the military stocks, the state has confiscated a quarter of a million weapons over the last two years in furtherance of the weapons ban. It was never likely he destroyed all of them. I figured he’s resell them; I hope he doesn’t have them stockpiled. The reports of distributing weapons to thugs and GPC members have been consistent and are further augmented by many leaked documents that indicate a nationwide strategy under the direction of the interior ministry.

Update an English round up from AP: (Read on …)

I wonder if Saleh understands that jeopardizing the lives of the diplomats is a worse breech than not signing?

YP: Council adopted the following conclusions:
“The European Union is following events in Yemen with extreme concern. (Read on …)

Sickening: MR. TONER: Sure. I mean, I don’t want to get into specifics yet, but I think I said yesterday that there’s a number of options in front of us as the situation continues to fester, and we’re looking at all options. But what’s important, really, now is that President Saleh has an agreement in front of him. He needs to sign it and put Yemen on a positive path so that they can resolve the current situation.

QUESTION: The GCC, it says they were walking away from that deal, it’s no longer on the table. Is it your understanding that it is still on the table?

MR. TONER: Our understanding is that it remains on the table. That he just needs to sign it.

Update: The road to the US embassy still blocked 24 hours later and apparently the tents are still up. The embassy closed its doors. Saleh is continuing to play with fire and misreading the US badly on this one. Obama, when he acts, can be shockingly aggressive in foreign policy. Saleh should tell these thugs to pack their tents and go play with the Al Ahmar boys immediately. Yemenis have a joke: “If the US wants al Qaeda, they should bomb the presidential palace.” I always found it rather amusing.

Oh he called the UAE?? Did he call President Obama? WAM: President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan received a phone call from Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in which he offered his apology for the incident in which the diplomats were detained in the UAE Embassy in the Yemeni Capital, Sana’a, yesterday. Actually it seems like Obama has a temper, maybe waiting a day is a good strategy.

Update: This is a much better and realistic view of the remarks by Clinton.

Original: I was rather outraged myself when President Obama’s friend, Ali Abdullah Saleh, besieged the US Ambassador to Yemen with gun toting, club wielding GPC members, trapping him in an foreign embassy for six hours. No one was surprised Saleh wormed his way out of signing though. I thought he might bow to the demands of a chanting, weeping crowd as opposed to locking down the mediators.

State.gov The United States is deeply disappointed by President Saleh’s continued refusal to sign the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) initiative. He is turning his back on his commitments and disregarding the legitimate aspirations of the Yemeni people.

The concerted efforts of the international community, led by the GCC, have been tireless and all sides have agreed — on multiple occasions — to sign the GCC initiative. President Saleh is now the only party that refuses to match actions to words. We urge him to immediately follow through on his repeated commitments to peacefully and orderly transfer power and ensure the legitimate will of the Yemeni people is addressed. The time for action is now.

We are also outraged to learn that earlier today factions loyal to President Saleh encircled the UAE embassy in Sana’a. They refused to allow U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Gerald Feierstein, ambassadors from the United Kingdom the European Union and GCC states, the GCC Secretary General and other foreign diplomats to leave the embassy. We condemn this action and call on President Saleh to meet his international obligations to ensure the safety and security of all foreign diplomats and their staffs working in Yemen.

In diplospeak, I think the tiers are layered from concerned to dismayed to outraged, so its a tough and appropriate word from the US’s top diplomat.

I’m hoping this is another false story planted to discredit the opposition media. Update: I am increasingly skeptical as no one saw it and after 24 hours the family hasn’t come forward. There was another fake two months ago where a female student leader was supposedly arrested in Hodiedah. HOOD announced and retracted a notice about a boy raped to death in Sanaa. False stories planted by the regime are designed to undermine the opposition media. The photo accompanying the story is of a Saudi women and a different news story.

SOS: Human Rights Activists seek the International Community’s support

A statement issued by Sister Arab Forum

Today, a female protest activists in Yemen , Ghania Alaraaj was burned to death by the pro-regime tugs in Sana’a, who were spread in the southern part of the capital Sana’a , and cut roads in the morning in Sana’a.

We call upon the International Community to help activist from such brutal acts by Saleh regime.

There’s so many leaks coming out of Yemen lately, documents and verbal. The following published by Marib Press is another. I wasn’t there so I can’t say its true, only that it’s less likely to be propaganda than the lies that come out of SABA on a daily basis. The only other people who will know absolutely if its true are the US officials, if they indeed called Saleh several times last night.

Saleh agreeing to the transition with the US while planning for a street uprising to derail it is entirely in character, as we saw from the ease of his lies as revealed in Wikileaks and from the years and years of lies before. This is the way he operates, these are the types of schemes he comes up with to juggle expectations and perceptions and blame. So I’m tired, I’m cranky, he besieged my ambassador and went back on his promise, so I’m publishing an unverified leak that has no document.

Mareb Press: On Saturday evening in Sana’a, the General Committee of the General People’s Congress (GPC) and parties of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Yemen held a meeting chaired by President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the Chairman of the GPC. Below is some leaks from this meeting’s conversations between Saleh and GPC members loyal to him.

· About the GCC brokered initiative , Saleh said that he had received yesterday evening seven calls from the U.S. administration to urge him to sign the GCC initiative, saying “I will sign the initiative, I do not want to be a stumbling block before the international community, but I’m going to sign, and you guys, you have to fail it, take into the streets. (Read on …)

Final Update: Diplomats rescued by helicopter, Yemen Post reports. It was a six hour siege. Afterward when Saleh never signed, the the GCC withdrew the proposal.

Previous: Does anybody on earth still believe Saleh has the capacity or the will to carry out a 2 month transition plan? Yes apparently. More fuzzy reports that Saleh refused the latest offer to sign the deal after the diplomats were released. The international community is afraid if they don’t get an agreement from Saleh, the pro-regime mobs today could all be armed and shooting tomorrow. Saleh is on TV threatening a war if the opposition doesn’t come to the palace to sign, so its not dead yet. Or it is and Ahmed is the GPC’s new candidate according to another report. The whole circus could have been a ploy to avoid signing and blame it on the JMP.

Original post: Well we knew he wasn’t going to sign, either rejecting it outright or, as occurred, the loyalists would “spontaneously” prevent it. But this is off the wall. If Saleh knows whats good for him, he better call off the mobs at the embassy. He’s really playing with fire. Armed ruling party members are not a deniable proxy. We all know where they came from. This idiot should smarten up and get the hell out of Dodge while the getting is good.

Good:
State Dept calls siege “a government organized” event.”
Revolutionary Youth Coalition condemns siege and calls it a new ploy.
GCC is meeting shortly to discuss the situation.
Helicopters to the rescue?

Updates: GPC crowd growing, tent up and road blocked at US embassy, NewsYemen: Eyewitnesses told “NewsYemen” The supporters of the ruling party have erected a tent in front of the U.S. embassy in Sana’a and cut the road in front of citizens. With still gunmen from the ruling party surrounding the UAE embassy in Sanaa, where resides the Secretary General of Gulf Cooperation Council Abdul Latif Al Zayani and a number of ambassadors of EU and U.S. Ambassador in Sanaa.

The ruling party (GPC) spokesman Sultan al Barakani confirms that Saleh won’t sign the deal even after the international mediator is released from captivity. What a thug regime.

Gunfight on 70th street. No action (water cannons, tear gas) by security to disburse the mobs at the embassies like they use on the anti-regime protesters.

AJE Gunmen claiming to be loyal to President Ali Abdallah Saleh of Yemen laid siege Sunday afternoon to the embassy of the United Arab Emirates in Sana’a, trapping the ambassadors of the United States and of the six members states of the Gulf Cooperation Council. (Read on …)