Armies of Liberation

Yemen analyst Chris Boucek of the Carnegie Endowment died yesterday in the US after returning from one of his many trips to Yemen. A top Middle East and Yemen expert who often testified before Congress, he wrote groundbreaking reports on the multiple crises and dysfunctions in Yemen. A cool headed analyst of enormous insight, Mr Boucek performed a great service to Yemen and the world, and his life’s work will have a lasting impact. It is a great loss for his family, friends, Yemenis and us all.

Dear Friend,

I write to share the sad and shocking news that our colleague and friend Chris Boucek died suddenly this morning at home. He had been in apparently good health, and enormously busy and productive right up until today.

Chris joined the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East program near the outset of his career. He not only met but far exceeded our expectations. As those of you who know his work appreciate, he made a big impact in many communities in the Middle East and in the United States. In a very short time, he built up a unique body of expertise on Islamic extremism in the Arabian Peninsula and the Sahel. He had recently returned from Yemen, full of thoughtful analysis on where the region was heading. From academia to the military, his insights and advice were in wide demand. He was also a sparklingly nice human being, of quiet warmth and humor who leaves a very big hole behind. We will miss him deeply: he was an admired colleague and a great friend.

In Sadness,

Jessica Mathews
President
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Yemen’s problem: The president and ‘al-Qaeda’
By ABDUL RAHMAN AL-RASHED at AJE

It is almost certain that the Yemeni government was not serious in fighting al-Qaeda within the past years. But, has Yemen been using al-Qaeda in its political purposes or was the regime afraid of the organization? This worrying questioned would probably remain unanswered. Within the current crisis that President Saleh has been facing, al-Qaeda managed to seize the city of Zinjibar and thus creating the fear that it might imitate what al- Qaeda in Iraq has been doing; namely seizing cities under its control. It took the Yemeni forced 90 days to evacuate the city of Zinjibar from al-Qaeda, with the help of the Americans in breaking the siege of an a Yemeni army battalion. Two weeks later, one of the most important leaders of al-Qaeda in Yemen—the U.S.-born Anwar al-Awlaki—was killed.

Both parts, the government and the opposition, exchange accusations over supporting terrorism. The opposition accuses Saleh that he supports terrorism and that he masterminded the fall of the city of Zinjibar. In the meantime, some government figures claim that al-Qaeda is being protected by opposition., For the Yemeni citizen the problem lies President Saleh’s refusal to step down and his transfer of power to his sons and relatives. For world powers, however, the problem is al-Qaeda.

I think that both are right; al-Qaeda is a problem and so is Saleh. Saleh has been walking on a tight rope and accordingly Yemen remained undeveloped for more than 30 years. He only cared about remaining in power by achieving tribal and regional balance, once with Saddam Hussein, another with Qaddafi and now probably with al-Qaeda when it is time for him to leave. The world will not accept a regime that is rejected domestically and internationally.

(The writer is the General Manager of Al Arabiya. The article was published by the London-based Asharq al-Awsat on Oct. 3, 2011 and was translated from Arabic by Abeer Tayel.)

Yemen Post Saleh to Use Terror File to Stay in Power; World Must not be Tricked

President Saleh has been using the terror card for well over a decade now, almost blackmailing western powers into financing his efforts against al-Qaeda and supporting his regime as he claimed to be the only entity in Yemen able to will enough power to carry through America’s requests in Yemen. (Read on …)

This is a good article and Phillips has a lot of insight into Yemen:

CIA action may backfire in Yemen: A DECADE after the epochal attacks of September 11, and three months after the killing of Osama bin Laden, America’s shadow war against terrorism appears to be slowly revealing a new front. (Read on …)

Le Monde published a really good article When will Yemens night end? Its a comprehensive article on the underlying political configuration that led to Yemen’s revolution and will determine its outcome. Here’s an article about Pakistan but there’s echos of Yemen, at the Dawn.

A guest post on the transition council that suggests representation by geographic region. The author urges the international community work toward the formation of a credible transitional council. (Currently the US is focusing all efforts on obstructing the formation of such a council and retaining elements the illegitimate, al Qaeda appeasing Saleh regime. The protesters have consistently demanded a transitional council and utterly rejected the ill advised GCC plan. The US has just as consistently ignored, disparaged and undermined these democratic aspirations.)

A Solution For The Yemeni Crises

The current crises in Yemen is growing more and more complicated and heading towards a political and security abyss that is extremely dangerous. Intelligentsia within the parties involved in the current events will face aspirations of both the reasonable and the irresponsibly rash.

The absence of clarity and decisiveness in a Gulf-American stance which is being imposed by Saudi Arabia leaves the door open in Yemen for a storm to sweep through the country. (Read on …)

As per the presser from the Development Leadership Program, A fantastic piece of research on the inner workings of the Yemeni political system,” I would agree: 83 pages PDF: Sarah Phillips: Yemen: Developmental Dysfunction and Division in a Crisis State

Highly recommended: Foreign Affairs

Update: And another at Foreign Policy from May but the following is a current analysis from Professor Sheila Carapico at the Yemen Times:

Americans got a crash course on Yemen for Christmas.

That’s because we’ve wanted to know more about the little-known, dirt-poor country in southwestern Arabia where the “underwear bomber” who tried to blow up a plane—bound for Detroit from Nigeria on Christmas Day—says he was trained. President Barack Obama says, correctly, that “large chunks” of Yemen “are not fully under government control.” So it seems to make sense to strengthen the Yemeni government, to get at “al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula,” as the local gang of Islamist extremists is known.

The State Department has duly doubled aid to Yemen, pledging $63 million in 2010, $12.5 million of which will buy military equipment. And there will be more from the Pentagon: Yemen received $67 million for its armed forces from the Defense Department in 2009, an amount set to increase this year.

But what kind of government rules Yemen, and how is it using these boatloads of Pentagon boodle?

Its elected parliament makes Yemen a democracy in name only. Its president, Ali Abdallah Salih, has held office longer than any other Arab ruler except Libya’s strongman, Muammar Qaddafi, and is grooming his son to take over.

Salih’s regime has battled rebels in the far north since 2004, and today it also faces a very disaffected population throughout the south. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is a tertiary concern at best. In fact, Salih has a history of strategically enlisting radical jihadis to keep his political opponents in check. (Read on …)