Armies of Liberation

Yemenis are fleeing (not joining) al Qaeda where ever they appear. However the vast majority of civilians lack the funds to rent an apartment or to buy food once they leave their farms and possessions behind to be looted by AQAP. But if they stay, they are subject to both al Qaeda dictatorship and US drones. The US may label those who don’t flee as collateral damage or as providing material support (as the Bedouins were in the Dec 2009 US strike in Abyan that killed 43 women and children when General Patraeus implied they were acceptable deaths because they selling vegetable to AQAP, despite the fact the villagers had appealed twice to local authorities to expel the group.)

Certainly AQAP bears the responsibility for sheltering in populated areas in the first place but people in the al Qaeda occupied territories of Yemen want to know where the refugee camps are. Seriously, where are they supposed to go? And it is a US problem when an al Qaeda presence means the potential of US drone strikes. The 120,000 who fled Zinjibar last May are still in the schools of Aden. I know Yemenis’ rights are very low on Obama’s priority list, but there must be a part of the plan to increase US drone use that will deal with the public panic and mass displacement that will occur as US drones follow AQ from province to province threatening people’s lives and homes. Over 15,000 fled Raada within days of Tariq al Dhahab’s (and al Wahishi’s) appearance. They were escaping both the al Qaeda fanaticism and the threat of US drones.

While the Obama administration may try to maintain the myth in the US that they know exactly who they are hitting, and its always a precise targeting, the non-lethal impact on civilians must be considered as well. The US is playing right into al Qaedas hands with nearly every policy from the re-imposition of a dictatorship through the GCC deal to Saleh’s visit to increased drones. The US is focused on vulnerable land when it should be focused on vulnerable people.

Basically, the US is going to bomb Yemen in order to pull off an uncontested election that nobody wants (except the US, the GPC and Islah elites) in the interest of “stability.” If the expired parliament gave Saleh immunity, it can appoint Hadi. The bogus show election isn’t worth more Yemeni lives or the displacement of tens of thousands, and it certainly wont confer legitimacy when there’s only one candidate that was selected by the US. The most politically disenfranchised are going to boycott anyway: civil minded protesters, southerners and Houthis.

The National: Yemen will increasingly rely on US drone strikes to target Islamist militants threatening to disrupt a transfer of power this month, Yemeni government officials said.

The president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, is meant to hand over power to his vice president, Abdurabu Mansur Hadi, on February 22.

The run up to the transfer is being overshadowed by growing protests, including within the military, which have grounded Yemen’s air force across much of the country.

Two aides in Mr Hadi’s office said they expected a rise in drone attacks against Al Qaeda militants.

The strikes will be intensified only if necessary, to ensure that militant groups do not expand in vulnerable areas, said one of the aides. Both asked to remain anonymous. (Read on …)

Everybody is wondering where the new arms shipment came from; if missiles, I was thinking North Korea; otherwise eastern Europe. Most Yemenis think Saudi Arabia, probably the only country willing to extend credit to the Sanaa regime at the moment. (But then with the earlier infusion of funds from Gadaffi, maybe Saleh can handle COD.)

9/23/11 HRF: Cables released by Wikileaks reveal that Slobodan Tesic, a Serbian arms dealer, contracted in 2009 to sell $95 million worth of sniper rifles, antiaircraft guns, and other arms and ammunition to the Yemen Ministry of Defense. As scores of unarmed protestors continue to be killed by the Yemeni government in renewed violence this week, possibly by these same weapons, Human Rights First renews its call for the United States to actively pressure the networks that enable brutal violence against civilians and grave human rights abuses. (Read on …)

The game continues:

Reuters- Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has moved a step closer to handing power to his deputy by accepting a U.N. formula to ease a transition and end an uprising against his rule, the EU envoy to Yemen was quoted by the state news agency Saba as saying. (Read on …)

Yemen Post: As Yemen is living through its worst spell of violence since the beginning of its popular uprising, with several hundred casualties awaiting medical treatment, the Red Cross is accusing the Yemeni government of theft and abuses.

According to Valerie Petitpierre, the deputy head of the International Committee of the Red Cross’s delegation in Yemen, government forces would have physically assaulted some of her staff as they were trying to confiscate their medical supplies.

“The ICRC delegation is receiving very worrying reports of armed confrontations taking place in Al-Gomhori Hospital and placing many innocent lives at risk,” she said.

Eye witnesses within the hospitals confirmed the allegations, saying that several members of the Red Cross staffs had been beaten and threatened of further reprisals if they insisted in helping the wounded.

Petitpierre went further in her declaration mentioning that “in some cases they have had equipment confiscated, and there have also been incidents in which they were denied access to people in need of first aid.”

She stressed that it was the government’s moral duty to ensure and facilitate medical treatment to all, beyond prejudice or feelings of revenge. “Anyone injured or wounded must be able to receive life-saving health care without undue delay.”

They place pro-Saleh opeds in western papers.

Bell Pottinger acted for controversial Yemen organization
September 1st, 2011 | by Melanie Newman Bureau of Investigative Journalism

Bell Pottinger, the London-based public relations firm, has been working for a little-known organization in Yemen with apparent strong links to the country’s president, the Bureau can reveal. (Read on …)

TOTAL, the French co with the concession on the LNG must be a bit concerned, especially after all the dirty deals. South Korea, a frequent target of AQAP, also has interests in Yemen’s LNG as an owner and production purchaser, but TOTAL has the lion’s share on both ends. Update: 1) I forgot to mention the kidnapping. On 23rd May, Bernard Valero, French Foreign Ministry spokesman, took a strong stance on Saleh in asking him to leave office and adhere to the (then new) GCC transition offer. On the 28rd May, five days after Valero’s statement, there was the kidnap of three French aid workers in Seyun/Shibam.

2) Yemen denies: SANA’A – Yemen denied on Tuesday reports of Suhail Channel that French ambassador to Yemen has departed the country due to harassments. An official source in the Foreign Ministry made clear that he left Yemen on Sunday, 7/8/2011, in an ordinary vacation. The French diplomat will return to Yemen to exercise his diplomatic duties, the official said.

3) MOre at the Yemen Post: Ahmed Saleh is believed to have warned that all French nationals were from now on unwelcome in Yemen. If it is the case, French run companies, such as TOTAL and YLNG might be in serious trouble.

Yemen Post In an unprecedented move and without much warning, the Yemeni government demanded the French Ambassador immediate departure.

According to government sources close to the palace, Ahmed Saleh, the president’s eldest son and contender to the presidency, would have ordered the ouster of all French embassy personnel since he felt that they were coercing against the regime by supporting the revolution. (Read on …)

The National Committee should pledge to the 1994 Document of Pledge and Accord.
Full Text here. Its an amazing assessment and action plan that was never implemented as it challenged the hegemony of the northern Saleh regime following unity.

The international community will like Section 1, paragraph 2 and the emphasis on counter-terror, but the whole document is as relevant now as it was in 1994, as regards Saleh’s tactics and excesses, and in providing assurances to southerners of equality and self determination going forward. The north/ south divide is as bifurcated today as it was before the revolution started. Maybe by agreeing to abide by the Document’s principles, the southerners might consent to join the rev or at least begin a conversation.

2. The Dialogue Committee reaffirms the statement of the government regarding the steps specially taken to confront terrorism, and to abide the policy of Yemen internally and externally in confronting terrorism. and to extradite all non-Yemenis against whom there is evidence of involvement in terroristic activities, support thereof or even encouragement or publicizing them.

Appropriate trials open and fair must be initiated and proper punishment dispensed accordingly to the law and through the appropriate channels. To forbid the entry into Yemen, employment of, or giving shelter or refuge to persons accused of terrorism.

WB Suspends $542 Million to Instable Yemen Yemen Post:

The World Bank suspended hundreds of millions of USD in aid to Yemen as from July 28 due to the political and security situation as the dueling protests and associated severe crises continue across the republic.

Independent sources cited a WB statement as saying that the decision came in harmony with the Bank’s rules that call for such a procedure in complicated circumstances to avoid negative impacts on its programme course in any country.

The Bank is sponsoring 21 projects in Yemen with $882 million, $542 million out of which has not been released yet, the source reported, citing the statement as saying that the Bank will be ready to resume its activities normally in the country when the situation returns normal.