Armies of Liberation

Yemenis are fleeing (not joining) al Qaeda where ever they appear. However the vast majority of civilians lack the funds to rent an apartment or to buy food once they leave their farms and possessions behind to be looted by AQAP. But if they stay, they are subject to both al Qaeda dictatorship and US drones. The US may label those who don’t flee as collateral damage or as providing material support (as the Bedouins were in the Dec 2009 US strike in Abyan that killed 43 women and children when General Patraeus implied they were acceptable deaths because they selling vegetable to AQAP, despite the fact the villagers had appealed twice to local authorities to expel the group.)

Certainly AQAP bears the responsibility for sheltering in populated areas in the first place but people in the al Qaeda occupied territories of Yemen want to know where the refugee camps are. Seriously, where are they supposed to go? And it is a US problem when an al Qaeda presence means the potential of US drone strikes. The 120,000 who fled Zinjibar last May are still in the schools of Aden. I know Yemenis’ rights are very low on Obama’s priority list, but there must be a part of the plan to increase US drone use that will deal with the public panic and mass displacement that will occur as US drones follow AQ from province to province threatening people’s lives and homes. Over 15,000 fled Raada within days of Tariq al Dhahab’s (and al Wahishi’s) appearance. They were escaping both the al Qaeda fanaticism and the threat of US drones.

While the Obama administration may try to maintain the myth in the US that they know exactly who they are hitting, and its always a precise targeting, the non-lethal impact on civilians must be considered as well. The US is playing right into al Qaedas hands with nearly every policy from the re-imposition of a dictatorship through the GCC deal to Saleh’s visit to increased drones. The US is focused on vulnerable land when it should be focused on vulnerable people.

Basically, the US is going to bomb Yemen in order to pull off an uncontested election that nobody wants (except the US, the GPC and Islah elites) in the interest of “stability.” If the expired parliament gave Saleh immunity, it can appoint Hadi. The bogus show election isn’t worth more Yemeni lives or the displacement of tens of thousands, and it certainly wont confer legitimacy when there’s only one candidate that was selected by the US. The most politically disenfranchised are going to boycott anyway: civil minded protesters, southerners and Houthis.

The National: Yemen will increasingly rely on US drone strikes to target Islamist militants threatening to disrupt a transfer of power this month, Yemeni government officials said.

The president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, is meant to hand over power to his vice president, Abdurabu Mansur Hadi, on February 22.

The run up to the transfer is being overshadowed by growing protests, including within the military, which have grounded Yemen’s air force across much of the country.

Two aides in Mr Hadi’s office said they expected a rise in drone attacks against Al Qaeda militants.

The strikes will be intensified only if necessary, to ensure that militant groups do not expand in vulnerable areas, said one of the aides. Both asked to remain anonymous. (Read on …)

And other oddities:

The latest news on Gitmo detainee Abd al Rahim al Nashiri, in US custody since 2002, is that the Military Commission can not confirmthat he will be released if found not guilty. Its not in the Military Commission’s jurisdiction to make those kind of pledges. Considering Nashiri was water boarded, its questionable if any of his statements will be allowed at trial, but prosecutors are confident that there is enough other evidence for a conviction.

Al Nashiri is charged with aiding the al Qaeda attack on the USS Cole in Aden port in 2000. The bombing killed 17 US service members and severely wounded dozens more. Al Nashiri selected the targets, the timing and coordinated the operatives. However, unexplored for a decade is the level of complicity by top Yemeni government officials and the failure of US intelligence to get a warning to the ship.

Prior to the attack on the USS Cole, Yemen’s then Interior Minister Hussain Arab issued al Nashiri a travel pass that enabled him to pass Yemen’s many internal checkpoints without search or question in the months preceding the terror attack. Al Nashiri also had a weapons permit issued by the Interior Ministry. These official documents were presented in Yemeni court during the 2005 trials of other conspirators.

In an interesting coincidence, Yemeni President Saleh ordered several top officials, including Interior Minister Arab, to travel from the capital Sana’a to Aden the night before the USS Cole was bombed there.

Saleh denied that Yemen was notified of the impending arrival of the warship. According to Centcom commander, General Zinni, in Congressional testimony, US naval officials followed the standard procedures for refueling including a two week advance notification to the host port.

It was also around two weeks prior to the attack that the military data mining group Able Danger and separately DOD analyst Kie Fallis picked up intel streams about an impending attack. Both made several attempts to obtain authorization to issue official warnings to no avail.

Kie Fallis quit the day of the Cole bombing. Able Danger’s Anthony Shaffer’s information never made it into the 9/11 report, although he tried. DOD later revoked Shaffer’s health insurance and forced him out over a “stolen” pen that he reported taking as a souvenir as a teen.

The NSA had the “Yemen hub” (a phone line in Yemen used by al Qaeda operatives for calls to and from bin Laden and others) under heavy surveillance for over a year prior to the Cole bombing, and for about a year after. There was a satellite trained on the house in Sanaa 24/7. Oddly, the NSA never learned of or reported on the USS Cole plot.

The CIA withheld information from the FBI about an al Qaeda summit, a high level meeting in Malaysia in January 2000, at which both the Cole and 9/11 were discussed. (See former federal investigator Ali Soufan’s excellent book, The Black Banners for more.)

Yemeni officials failed to cooperate with Soufan and other FBI agents in Yemen investigating the bombing. Some like the head of Yemen’s Political Security Organization in Aden, Hussain al Ansi, engaged in active misdirection and stonewalling.

Ten terrorists awaiting trial for the Cole attack escaped Yemeni prison in 2002 and after surrendering, their trials resulted in sentences of five to ten years. Most of escaped prison again in 2006. By 2008, all those convicted in the attack had their sentences commuted and were free. Al Nashiri, in US custody, was sentenced to death in Yemen in absencia in 2005.

The Jurist reports the Yemeni government sheltered (and lied for) al Nashiri after the bombing. The Congressional Research Service details the Cole bombers’ releases and notes that, according to the Washington Post, Al Nashiri had spent several months before his capture under “high-level protection” by the Yemeni government.

After the USS Cole attack, Interior Minister Arab was transferred, appointed by Yemeni President Saleh to the Shura Council. Arab resigned and joined the Pro-Revolutionary Military Council in March 2011.

Previous: (2007) The USS Cole Bombing in Yemen: What We Know Today

Related: Defense argues US was not at war in 2000, thus the Military Commission does not have jurisdiction.

It also could be state retribution for the massive pro-independence demonstration in Aden on Oct 14. 9/20 Update: or the whole thing is regime propaganda…

Yemen Post: Thursday evening, residents in Aden reported heavy shelling in the Crater area, saying that the explosions were so numerous and violent that they had to take cover into basements and nearby buildings….In other parts of the city gun-battles are raging between men in civilian clothes and regular Adeni residents.

With so much confusion and contradictory statements, it is really difficult to establish a clear picture. Some anti-regime protesters are claiming that the government is attacking the Revolution, while others are claiming that al-Qaeda elements are trying to take control over Aden as the town is strategically of great importance.

Continuing

AM Australia: Fears al Qaeda is behind attacks on Port of Aden, Saturday, October 22, 2011 08:03:00

(Read on …)

The southern movement held protests across the south yesterday, 10/14/11, the 48th anniversary of the birth of the anti-colonial independence movement in 1963 that led to the expulsion of the UK and the formation of the PDRY in 1967 . Large pro-independence protests were seen in Aden, Hadramout, Lahj and Shabwa in contrast to the previously low, if not non-existent, turn out by southerners for the 2011 Yemeni Youth Revolution protests. Protesters were asked to go to Aden or Radfan if possible. These numbers as shown in the photos are at about the levels that southerners protested from 2007-2010. The Southern Movement seeks an independent state and claims that the south was occupied by Northern Yemen following the 194 civil war, contravening UN SC resolutions 928 and 931.

SM leaders and members within Yemen reject efforts by expats like al Attas and ANM to find a consensus for a federal system, including results of the Cairo conferences. Last month, General Nassar al Nuba invited UN envoy Jamal bin Omar to the south to discuss the SM position and opportunities for resolution. Beyond a handful of individual efforts by YRR activists, no international or official YYR efforts have been made to engage the Southern Movement. Several southern leaders were appointed without discussion to the National Revolutionary Council and all immediately resigned. The photo below was taken yesterday in al Mansoura, Aden:

The following in Radfan, Lahj:

Photos Hadramout here and also here.

Photo from scene; you don’t want to see the close-ups:

Its just doesn’t add up as actual AQAP somehow. Maybe a splinter faction from the amorphous group in Abyan, but its too early to tell. Maybe another one of those last seen arrested in Abyan or one of the 16 AQ prison escapees sheltering in one of the presidential palaces. The 26 Sep says two policemen were injured in the suicide bombing. In addition, a car bomb was planted in an officials car and exploded, killing him, as he left the air base in Lahj; it seems obvious it was planted while he was at the base:

TASS: On Tuesday, an explosion in Yemen killed a high-ranking military commander: Amin al Shami’s car exploded after he left a military aircraft base in the province of Lahej. Two people, who accompanied him, survived. The explosion was set by the same terrorist group which set an explosion at a police station on Saturday, and attempted on the life of Yemen’s defense minister in Aden last month. (ed- the driver of the Def Min’s car said there was slumped body in the car which exploded as they drove by and the bomber was last seen when arrested in Abyan.)

AFP: ADEN — A colonel in the Yemeni air force and a police officer were killed in separate attacks in south Yemen on Tuesday, military and police officials said.
(Read on …)

Telegraph: Artillery and automatic weapons fire broke out near the home of a prominent anti-Saleh tribal leader in the Hasaba district, the site of weeks of fighting that began in May and edged the impoverished Arab state closer to civil war.

Diplomatic sources said mediators from neighbouring powerhouse Saudi Arabia intervened to help end the street fighting, which was the fiercest in recent weeks. (Read on …)

Wednesday a British worker was killed when his car exploded in a terror attack and today, Sunday, a car bomb rammed a military convoy, killing 8. There were many messages of outrage and condolences posted by Yemenis regarding the murder of the British national. Car bombings are a hallmark of the so called AQAP: the tactic was used in the attacks on two oil facilities in September 2006, on tourists in Marib were killed in July 2007, in the bombing at the Sayoun police station in July 2008. The September US embassy attack also included car bombs, as did the suicide attack on a Zaidi religious procession organized by the Houthis in November 2010 which killed 17. That’s off the top of my head. (Yemen released those murderers responsible for training the driver who carried out the 2007 car bombing which killed two Spanish tourists in Marib after two years in jail, if they even served that much time.)

On Wednesday, a car bomb killed David Tom, David Mockett who worked as a marine surveyer through his office in Al-Mualla St, detonated when he left his office. It was followed by an attack today on a military convoy.

Yemen Post An explosive-laden car was rammed into a military convoy on Sunday morning in Yemen’s business capital Aden killing at least six people including soldiers and the attacker, eyewitnesses were quoted as saying.

Almost twenty others were injured, the website said, quoting medical sources as saying that the death toll is likely to rise.

The suicide attack took place near an air force camp in Al-Mansoura district while it was heading to Abyan province, where the army has been fighting Islamists for almost two months, it quoted military sources as saying.

- Republican Guard shells a public mini-bus in Taiz, driver killed, 13 wounded including three children, attack occurred in front of a hospital, several other parts of the neighborhoods shelled by tanks and artillery: al Masdar Also Taiz, clashes after security tries to impede a mass rally demanding an immediate formation of a transitional council: al Masdar (Read on …)