Armies of Liberation

Armies of Liberation covers all Yemen related topics. The reverse magnetic field in the Gulf of Aden has spawned theories that it is a) a worm hole opening b) aliens or c) an underwater military base. These wacky theories are augmented by the international attention to the area including China’s first naval excursion in a century, Iran’s ships and the many western countries that are patrolling the Bab al Mendab for piracy. However the reason for the reverse magnetism is much more likely its this:

Gulf of Aden axial magnetic anomaly and the Curie temperature isotherm
Nature.com, D. Tamsett & R. W. Girdler

School of Physics, The University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK

The main features of magnetic anomalies over ocean ridges have been explained1 as a corollary of seafloor spreading and geomagnetic reversals. Oceanic crust is formed in a narrow region, becoming magnetized in the direction of the Earth’s magnetic field as its temperature falls through the Curie point of the magnetic minerals present. The Gulf of Aden was one of the first places where reversely magnetized sea floor was recognized2. The seafloor spreading direction and latitude are such that the anomaly due to normal magnetization is negative and slightly skewed.

Positive anomalies were also observed suggesting the presence of reverse magnetization. A short wavelength magnetic anomaly which frequently occurs superimposed on the axial magnetic anomaly in the Gulf of Aden is now described. Various interpretations are considered; the preferred involves a dramatic shallowing of the Curie temperature isotherm close to the seafloor spreading centre. The interpretation has implications for models of the generation of oceanic lithosphere and for locating possible geothermal areas in rifted regions.

Who leaked this to Reuters at this time? Wikileaks had it but why this one and why now while there are battling? Saleh has some powerful friends. And taking the portfolio and handing it to Ahmed was no effort to increase transparency but to consolidate control.

Exclusive: Arcadia may have rigged Yemen exports: cable

(Reuters) – Oil trading firm Arcadia Petroleum, sued by regulators last week for allegedly manipulating U.S. oil prices, used hardball tactics in Yemen to buy the country’s oil exports at below market prices, until authorities revamped their sales process to break the trading house’s “long-standing monopoly”, according to a confidential State Department cable. (Read on …)

Yemen: President Saleh refuses to meet US official after Wikileaks cables
20/12/2010 News Yemen: President Ali Abdullah Saleh refused to receive the US Assistant Secretary of the State Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman, in protest to Wikileaks cables on Yemen, al-Ahaly independent weekly quoted special sources as saying. (Read on …)

Yemen Post: In an interview with Al-Jazeera this week, I was asked if the Yemeni people were shocked by the WikiLeaks reports. I said that most of what was revealed was expected, and the Yemeni people already know that its government does not have a national agenda. Those nations that do not have agendas are forced to follow others agendas. That is the policy of life. (Read on …)

The al Qaeda-centric analysis focused on threat assessment rightfully bemoans the probable impact of Wikileaks on AQAP’s media arms. Wikileaks will be exploited by al Qaeda media moguls, including the pseudo cleric Anwar al Awlaki and the ever obnoxious Samir Khan. They might even mention it in the Arabic mag. But Wikileaks is also bolstering AQAP’s counter-weights.

The Houthis, southerners, HR activists, tribesmen and the rest of Yemen are also finding the documents support their worldviews, which in many cases contain overlapping premises. In the Yemeni equilibrium, the documents strengthen many narratives, not just al Qaeda’s, but only to the extent that the information is being incorporated. (For more read, my paper Comparative Counter-insurgency in Yemen at the GLORIA center.)

Still its all old news. The Yemeni intelligence’s attempt to assassinate General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar by giving Saudi fighter jets false coordinates is not even slightly shocking to the average farmer. Yemen is the land of conspiracy theories because Yemen is the land of conspiracies. To follow is an excerpt of an insightful, as usual, Yemen Times editorial which puts the impact of the documents in context:

Wikileaks and public opinion, Nadia Al-Sakkaf: In countries like Yemen, it’s hard to say a ‘public opinion’ really exists. Most of the people are unaware of politics because they either illiterate or tucked away in rural areas with no access to independent news. Even for those who are aware, they are indifferent because they are not interested.

Moreover, the Yemeni nation’s memory is very short and the country as a whole lacks vision. This means that people do not look into the past to make decisions about the present and future. This is probably due to lack of education and awareness but mostly because a sense of ownership does not really exist.

Most Yemenis do not think they have a say or a responsibility towards their country. They do not take ownership of the situation of Yemen today and their role in making things better.

This is why even a hundred Wikileaks will not make a difference for Yemen. It will only confirm what we already know and have done nothing about.

This is also why the Yemeni government did not think much before responding with, “the information is both un-true and a misinterpretation of what really happened and that Yemen does not care about what is being said or published.”

What really matters is creating a strong public opinion in Yemen and making sure that this is a representative of the people and that it has value. Without this, nothing anyone can do or say will make any difference.

For another good view of Wiki/Yemen, see the YT’s Is Yemen’s Cable a Breaking Point?

I really should start making bets for money. Al Alimi was summoned to Parliament earlier in the week to discuss the revelation that he joked about lying to Parliament. (At the time of the December airstrike, the JMP opposition parties withdrew but the uber-majority GPC dutifully pretended to believe the lie.) Al Alimi rescheduled for today, Saturday, and was again a no-show. Yemen’s rubber stamp parliament, dominated by President Saleh’s ruling GPC, doesn’t have the capacity to hold al Alimi or any of the ministers to account.

The last time he was summoned I believe was after the second al Qaeda attack on the South Koreans in 2008. A pedestrian suicide bomber bounced off the convoy of SK officials in Yemen to investigate the earlier suicide attack that killed three SK tourists in Hadramout. It was apparent that AQAP had information on the route of the convoy in advance. When he finally showed up, al Alimi admitted that the security services are infiltrated by al Qaeda, but he diagnosed it as low level and a function of corruption. Then he denied saying it. And in case you are interested, the headline coming out of the Human Rights conference was, “Alimi calls for civil society organizations to expose human rights violations and document them.” (Read on …)

The revelation that the “US saw Yemen as key transit hub for arms to Hamas” is going to be well received by the majority in Yemen, but its another criminal activity that is widely understood. The rash of exploding Yemeni fishing boats and one light aircraft that exploded in the Sudan were indications. For some context, there’s the saga of the shipload of Chinese weapons smuggled into Yemen with false documents last year and thought to have been ultimately trans shipped to the Sudan. Also see my aptly titled article, Drug Smuggling and Other Crimes of the Yemeni Dictator at World Press.Org published Oct. 14, 2005. The relevant section follows:

Weapons Trafficking: Both the United States and the United Nations have expressed concern regarding the amount of illegal arms transfers from Yemen. The Yemeni weapons pipeline has two sources of supply: the black market and legitimate military purchases.

Published reports have indicated that local gangs of arms traffickers in Serbia, Slovakia, Montenegro, Croatia and Kosovo ship weapons from the ports in Montenegro and Croatia to Yemen. Additionally some weapons purchased by the Yemeni military are diverted into the black market. The serial numbers for two assault rifles used in an attack on the U.S. consulate in Saudi Arabia have been traced to Yemen’s Defense Ministry. Five U.S. consulate employees died in the attack. (Read on …)

Wow, more stuff we all knew already:
- The drone downed in March 2007 was US not Iranian.
- President Saleh met and released escaped USS Cole bomber Jamal al Badawi shortly before Frances Townsend’s Oct 2007 visit.
- Saleh haggled on the Gitmo detainees, bargaining for money.
(Read on …)

One important issue that is not well understood regarding southern Yemen is the difference between loosely organized clans and cohesive tribes, a factor of rainfall levels. This article however discusses urban migration resulting from water shortages and the resulting impact on agricultural output.

Reuters: Farmers, 70 percent of the population, can no longer subsist on their own crops. Youths are flocking from the countryside to the cities in search of jobs to provide for their families. (Read on …)

Another non-surprise, the Yemeni Foreign Ministry denies the cables are accurate:

Yemen’s stances obvious, WikiLeaks memos do not concern it-Yemen FM
Wednesday, 01-December-2010
Almotamar.net – An official source at the Yemeni Foreign Ministry has commented on the documents leaked by WikiLeaks site and what it publishes in a number of newspapers about Yemen by saying that what came in those documents on what was discussed between Yemeni officials and the American side was not considered accurate and true reporting of what had actually been exchanged in those meetings. (Read on …)

HODEIDAH, Yemen, Sept. 9 (UPI) — The death toll from flooding in western Yemen has climbed to 56, an official says. Heavy rainfall in the Hodeidah province in western Yemen along the Red Sea resulted in two newly confirmed deaths, Yemen’s SABA news agency said. It did not name its medical source.

The latest victims include a child and his pregnant mother, the report said. Flooding in Yemen’s al-Jarrahi district recently killed 11 people, SABA said.

There are good plans to address many urgent issues in Yemen but they are not implemented fully. Power centers within the government thwart reforms to protect their profits. In other cases, coordination among semi-autonomous ministries is nearly impossible to achieve.
IRIN

SANAA, 10 August 2010 (IRIN) – Despite record rainfall in the Yemeni capital Sanaa and other areas this summer, very little is being done to harvest this water to mitigate water shortages, experts say. In May at least seven people were killed in what officials described as the worst flooding to hit Sanaa in a decade. Flooding has brought large parts of the city to a standstill on a number of occasions. Attempts by the government to harvest rainwater are very limited, according to Ramon Scoble, a consultant for Germany’s Technical Cooperation Committee (GTZ). (Read on …)

A senior Yemeni defense official admitted on Wednesday that a December 17 air strike against al Qaeda in southern Yemen killed scores of civilians and not 30 al Qaeda operatives as the government previously insisted.

The strike has been touted by both US and Yemeni officials as evidence of Yemen’s newly found commitment to battling an increasingly active Yemeni al Qaeda affiliate. Within hours of the bombing, U.S. President Barack Obama called Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, saying the operation “confirms Yemen’s resolve in confronting the danger of terrorism represented by al Qaeda for Yemen and the world,” Yemen’s state media reported.

Witness testimony and photographic evidence disputing the Yemeni government’s claims surfaced within a day of the air strike. A parliamentary fact finding committee documented that 42 civilians, mainly women and children, were killed. Seventy were hospitalized with injuries.

After months of delays, Deputy Prime Minister for Defense and Security Rashad al-Alimi appeared for Parliament’s debate on the air strike. “We work, and anyone who works makes mistakes,” he said.

“We apologize to those innocent citizens killed in the operation against al-Qaeda organization in Abyan,” al-Alimi said. He also said the government would pay compensation.

State Jihaddist or Al Qaeda?

Only two al-Qaeda members were killed in the raid including Mohammed Saleh al-Kazemi, a Saudi living in Yemen since his return from fighting in Afghanistan. Al Kazemi was imprisoned in Yemen for two years before his release in 2005 without a trial. He was on a most wanted list of 154 al Qaeda-linked militants, a Yemeni official told the New York Times. Al Kazemi helped plan a July 2007 suicide attack that killed seven Spanish tourists and two Yemeni guides in Marib and also provided safe haven to foreign al Qaeda militants operating in Yemen, the official said.

However a Member of Parliament for the opposition Islah party said the al Kazemi had close ties to Yemeni security forces. In a February interview with al Sahwa, Abdul Karim Shiban said that the two alleged al Qaeda operatives traveled back and forth from Shabwa to Abyan openly since their release from prison. The men were digging a well at the time of the raid, and could have been easily captured he said. Mr. Shiban also said the men used to chew khat with security officials and received an allowance from the state.

The enmeshment of al Qaeda and Yemen’s security forces complicates counter-terror operations. Yemen’s Political Security Organization was not informed of the air raid until it was over, the Washington Post reported.

At a Parliamentary session in March 2009, MPs from both the ruling party and opposition said that the Yemeni government had provided aid to terrorists, the Yemen Post reported. MP Sakhr Al-Wajih said the government was involved in many terrorist acts in the past years. The session followed a suicide attack on South Korean investigators who were in Yemen to aid authorities in the investigation of the murder of four South Korean tourists.

The US is increasing military funding to Yemen from the $67 million spent in 2009 to $150 million for fiscal year 2010. The funds are to be used to repair and service 10 Mi-17 helicopters, and to provide four Huey IIs and train Yemeni crews to operate and maintain them.

A nice article extolling the beauty and unique nature of Yemen, I’m quite happy to see it:

New York Times — It has been almost 800 years since Saleh Qaid Othaim’s house in the heart of the Old City was built from hand-cut stones and traditional alabaster decorations.

Yet on a recent morning, Mr. Othaim watched contentedly as a group of men renovated the place using exactly the same ancient methods and materials. Workers mixed the moist chocolate-brown masonry known as teen while a master builder supervised, a dagger hanging from his belt. There was no scaffolding, no helmets, no whine of machines: only the scraping of trowels and masonry, interrupted at last by the call to prayer in the high desert air.

“I don’t care how long it takes,” said Mr. Othaim, a government worker. “The most important thing is that it be done in a traditional way.” (Read on …)

Normal militaries have discipline, a chain of command and standard operating protocols. Its extremely difficult to believe that a French warship shot down a passenger airplane. The Yemeni military is fractured, chaotic, and makes it up as they go along, but not France, all joking aside. This scenario also implies a massive cover-up by France in the aftermath. Earlier the plane’s black box was described as containing no retrivable data. Its not beyond Yemen’s authorities to make up a wild lie, they do it all the time. This is the al Motamar article which quotes reliable sources stating the investigation concluded a French warship launched a missile at the Airbus, and says Yemen will ask for reimbursement of funds paid to victims families. Here is another article from Arab Monitor.

Yemeni is a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention. The draft law is a bit late for the people in Sa’ada some would say. SABA

Yemen bans chemical, biological arms

SANA’A, July 07 (Saba)- The cabinet approved in its Tuesday meeting a draft law concern works of the National Committee to Ban Chemical, Biological and Poisonous Arms.

The cabinet directed concern officials to complete necessary measures to issue the draft law, which was presented by Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (Read on …)

IRIN

MUKALLA, 10 May 2009 (IRIN) – A disease which kills date palm trees, on which thousands of people depend for a living, has returned to Hadhramaut Governorate in southern Yemen. (Read on …)

The criminalization of the state leads to incompetence and lack of oversight in all areas. I think the Yemeni “government” gave up trying to provide basic services a while ago and now its just wack-a-mole (reactive decision making).

Dead shrimp are one thing, but theres whole villages that have been sickened by enviornmental contaminaton of the extractive industries and other pollution. And the Health Ministry is so inept that its criminal. From SABA:

GAMSR warns of crude oil leaking in Shabwa

ADEN ,July 01 (Saba) – The General Authority for Marine Science Research (GAMSR) has warned of crude oil leaking due to negligence of the companies working in Balhaf, near Bir-Ali area ,in the eastern governorate of Shabwa which causes death of shrimp and various fish.

Deputy Chairman of GAMSR Saleh Awadh told Saba that this phenomenon discovered late of last June has caused death of many shrimp in Bir-Ali which is known of shrimp existence in trade quantities.

A technical research team led by Awadh headed to the mentioned area, he made it clear to study the situation.

Accordingly, the team reported to the authorities in Shabwa governorate and the government to take necessary measures and to put an end for this phenomenon which appears as oil spots at the sea, Awadh added.

He indicated that the search team did not reach a scientific result yet after examining a shrimp as they were found rotten, warning of environmental pollution in the area.

Must adhere to the party line or else… The French maintain the plane was banned; Yemeni authorities insist it never happened. The military aircraft have similar problems with upkeep on their fleet. The maintenance budget(s) are subject to embezzlement, there’s no oversight and the press is barred from reporting on the military. A journalist who did was kidnapped a few years ago.

al Motamar
Aviation Committee is to sue media instruments that offended Yemeni Airways reputation
Thursday, 02-July-2009
Almotamar.net – The Yemeni Higher Committee for follow-up Aviation Incidents has on Thursday on all different media instruments to the necessity of observing the facts about the crashed Yemeni Airbus plane A 310 that crashed offshore Comoros last Tuesday.

The Yemeni Transport Minister called, in a press conference he held at Sana’a International Airport a short while ago, on the media hat published wrong information to correct them , affirming their keeping the right to sue those media instruments that endeavour to target and offend the reputation of the Yemenia Airways Company via publishing wrong information.

The Minister also pointed out that the Committee has established an information centre at Sana’a International Airport for providing in formation and developments on the crashed plane and operations of rescue that would be reported by an official spokesman in the name of the Committee via continuous news conferences.

The Yemeni Transport Minister also confirmed that the crew of the Yemeni plane was of high skill and efficiency and that the Company would remain adhering to safety criteria.

That’s really a shame, predictable though. OpenDocument

Yemen: Fears of flood-affected farmers abandoning agriculture
Source: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs – Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN)

Date: 12 Apr 2009

SEYOUN, 12 April 2009 (IRIN) – An official has warned that delays in restoring the severely flood-affected agriculture sector in Hadhramaut Governorate, southeastern Yemen, will prompt farmers to abandon their jobs and seek work in other sectors, affecting food security in the impoverished country. (Read on …)