Armies of Liberation

The governor of Aden resigned in protest of the protesters’ mass fatalities in March 2011. VP Haid re-appointed him recently. The deputy governor Abdul-Karim Shaif and other GPC officials boycotted a security meeting Saturday and stormed the governor’s office with armed men on Sunday, stealing the official stamps and cutting off funding at the bank, via Yemen Post.

Yemen’s government is a hyper-political configuration wherein all state institutions and bureaucracies became an extension of the GPCs power. That is one reason I suggested early last year suspending the established political parties during the transition period, which would also give new parties a chance to develop real constituencies. Instead the current configuration as outlined by the GCC deal attempts to re-balance or tip the gridlock between the GPC and the JMP.

These are the two entities that were unable to agree on (previously agreed upon) electoral reforms from 2006-2011, there was not one shred of progress, not even the most basic reform was enacted. If they keep thwarting the transition maybe its time to go back to my idea from 2007, Disband the GPC. The problem is the GPC is the counter to Islah, so if they both take a two year hiatus, it might allow some breathing room.

To follow is my 2007 article that lays out part of the configurations in place then that are hampering progress now. Published at World Press 9/2/07, the article, written two months after the first southern protest, was disparaged because I said there were simmering tensions in the south: It wasn’t possible to disband the GPC five years ago but I wanted people to for once imagine a world without it in order to better see its hegemony in day to day life.

Disband Yemen’s Ruling Party

Since Yemen’s presidential election last September, the nation is experiencing several areas of instability. Crisis areas include the fourth recurrence of the Saada war in North Yemen, popular protests in the former South Yemen, hostile tribal posturing, and the resurgence of terror attacks directed at the state. One causal factor common to all these conflicts is institutionalized inequality or state discrimination. This inequality is also the foundation of massive corruption that is destroying Yemen. With elitism so engrained and corruption so pervasive, structural reform is nearly impossible. One solution may be to dissolve the national mechanisms that function to perpetuate inequality and enable corruption, starting with Yemen’s ruling party.

Hopes generated before Yemen’s 2006 presidential election were dashed in its wake. Oppositionists were disappointed that the election was a pantomime of democracy with state resources overwhelmingly supporting President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the victor and incumbent of 28 years. Saleh’s supporters were disappointed when his expansive election platform produced few tangible results upon his reelection. In fact, the situation worsened for the average Yemeni with prices rocketing higher. (Read on …)

The title of the following Yemen Post article is VP threatens to unveil Yemen’s realities

There’s no use pining for an apolitical transitional council of bureaucrats that was the protesters’ goal instead of the US sponsored re-empowerment of the entrenched forces that spurred the rev in the first place. The GCC deal is all carrot and no stick. The agreement, designed to effect a peaceful transition of power, took away the threats of freezing (stolen) funds, domestic or international prosecution, the “de-Baathification” of the GPC an international arms embargo and exile as an incentives for good behavior. The various fiefdoms are relatively unmolested, protected by the deal, and remain powerful and intertwined. Poor Hadi, he’s single handedly up against one of the most corrupt regimes on the planet and they are all going to fight to retain their cash flows and power. Those in the unity government with good intentions are beginning to despair at the overwhelming forces of the counter-revolution that blocks steps toward reform.

Yemen Vice President Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi has threatened to unveil realities about Yemen’s current situations, indicating that nothing of the GCC-brokered power transfer’s provisions was implemented so far, An Emirate newspaper, Albyan, quoted well-informed Yemeni officials
The newspaper said Hadi has recently chaired a committee tasked with following up the GCC deal, pointing out that he cited that his residence was subject to shooting by unidentified men several times.
The officials said Hadi showed a dire picture of Yemen’s situations, pointing out that the capital is still divided into three parts, and oil and electricity lines are damaged
According to Albyan, Haid complained Al-Qaeda control on some towns, saying that the army took no actions to prevent Al-Qaeda expansion.
Armed groups affiliated to Al-Qaeda calling itself as “the Islamic Jihad Group” took over last month Yemeni towns amid claims that Saleh’s aides helped Al-Qaeda have a productive ground to grow and expand.
In the meeting , representatives of the General People Congress headed by Saleh could not justify the storm of some state newspapers by armed men loyal to regime, the newspaper added.
Under the GCC deal, Hadi is the consensus candidate of major parties in a presidential elections scheduled for February, while Saleh remains as a figurehead president for 90 days after he was forced to sign the deal.
After the elections, as GCC deal states, Hadi will oversee national dialogue to consider proposals for constitutional reforms that include replacing the presidential system with a multi-party parliamentary system.
Hadi is additionally tasked with presiding over the military commission, which operates to negotiate the demilitarization of the capital, Sana’a, and other cities.

Related: MSNBC article on the election:

Yemeni officials said Washington would not tolerate attempts to upset Hadi’s ascension to the presidency.

“The American administration told representatives of (both sides within the unity government) that… the U.N. Security Council will strongly confront any attempts to keep Hadi from being elected as the country’s president,” a Yemeni minister who attended a meeting with U.S. officials last week told Reuters.

(Read on …)

He promised a new constitution, parliamentary system, national accord government, regional governance and a new election law based on proportional representation, all by the end of 2011. It is was what was on the table in return for the JMP’s capitulation in 2006, and over the next five years, Saleh and his cohorts blocked every attempt to bring these initiatives to fruition. Saleh has just lost all credibility because he has lied at every turn.

Update: Now that JMP is not jumping on the proposal, GPC says proposal was to people not the JMP But the people instantly rejected it as well.

Update: elections cannot be held on time SCER until rolls revised:

SCER discusses new tasks following voters’ rolls cancellation

SANA’A, March 10 (Saba) – The Supreme Commission for Election and Referendum (SCER) discussed on Thursday priorities in the light of law No. 6 for 2011 amending law No. 26 for 2010 in accordance with law No. 13 for 2001 to cancel the 5th article of Law No. 26 for 2010.

The commission affirmed, in the light of the this enforced law, that it could not hold parliamentary elections on time according to the current voters’ rolls until it revises and amends voters’ rolls in accordance with article No. 12 of Elections and Referendum Law.

“embattled” Saleh..

(RTTNews) – Yemen’s embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh has said that he is ready to make constitutional reforms that will transform the country into a parliamentary democracy. (Read on …)

Reuters

The Houthis, Jadban said, want effective representation in a national dialogue to take place if the popular movement manages to remove Saleh from office.

Jadban was until recently a member of Saleh’s ruling party, the General People’s Congress Party until he resigned last week along with 11 other parliamentarians to protest Saleh’s refusal to meet street demands to step down. (Read on …)

True. The JMP missed a good opportunity to reach out to the southern opposition. With the external pressure and an enhanced coalition, they might have forced real reforms. All the reports today sound as if the contest is to be the mayor of Sanaa, which maybe it its.

The National: On numerous occasions, party leaders have openly opposed him during news conferences, only to sit with Mr Saleh later in the day behind closed doors.

Experts believe that opposition parties are still not ready to govern and there is no obvious successor to Mr Saleh.

Unlike Tunisia, Yemen’s six opposition parties are united under the umbrella of the JMP, however, Ali Jaradi, the editor in chief of Yemen’s independent Ahale newspaper said the situation could quickly change. “Currently, the JMP is uniting the opposition against one person, which is Saleh.” But when he is “out of the picture, disputes among them will start due to them being from six differently ideological political parties”.

The Yemeni political analyst Mohammed al Khaberi said the goal of Yemen’s largest opposition party, Islah, is not to rule but to change the regime and ensure a transparent government. All other JMP parties want the opposite, and are craving the seat of the government. They see Islah as a brick wall standing in front of their political ambitions. (Read on …)

1- media censorship makes all problems disappear, actually there are NO PROTESTS, its all opposition propaganda
2- plain clothes police who arrive in vehicles with official license plates to kidnap activists
3- crowds of civil servants regularly bussed in to chant lovely things like, “Our blood for you oh Ali”
4- both are old senile men with brain damage who dye their hair and hate the internet
5- wont run in next election!!! Saleh said that before he won the last three elections
6- announces will reform, two years later announces really really will reform (continue for decades )
7- magic glasses make millions of starving kids on the streets invisible, and other unflattering statistics a foreign conspiracy by people who can’t find the country on a a map,
8- prisons worse than your worst nightmares and palaces like a Hollywood set
9- more money than Oprah but a nominal salary, must have hit lotto several times
10- Junior!!!! and a whole second generation of elite with a Porsche and foreign education

Hosni and Ali, two bums in one pair of trousers.

Saleh suddenly wants to talk. And reform. Maybe the JMP will decide to ratchet up their protest colors from pink to fuchsia. Watch out if they get to red. Update: Woops, Saleh made the announcement but forgot to invite the JMP to dialog.

Yemen Post: Opposition leaders will sit today to discuss the President Saleh’s call to end protests and come to the dialogue table.
The call by the president came after he met with high ranking officials from the ruling General People Congress GPC party yesterday.
Sources in the opposition told Yemen Post that they will not have dialogue with the ruling party until all decisions made by the ruling party over the last three months be cancelled.
The opposition source also mentioned that they are not optimistic about returning to the dialogue table with the ruling party as history has shown that dialogue always makes matters worse due to the negligence of the ruling party.

With the advent of protests in the capital, President Saleh promised a raise for the military, somewhere around $40/month. There are an approximate 600,000 on the military payroll, and an average of ten dependents each, meaning about a quarter of Yemenis will directly or indirectly benefit from the raise, if it is in fact implemented. And promising pay raises is a tactic that has worked before in Yemen to defuse social tension.

President Saleh previously and successfully promised wage increases in order to short circuit civil unrest. In response to the 2005 fuel riots, Saleh enacted the revised Wages Strategy which purported to offset higher fuel costs with salary increases for civil servants. Designed with a multi-staged roll-out, the failure to implement the second phase of the strategy later triggered strikes, notably by the teachers union, when the “type of work” bonus over base line pay was not dispersed to those qualified. In negotiations, the teachers union demanded the salary increases should be retro-active to the date they became law. Saleh’s current promise to increase military wages is being framed by the regime, correctly, as implementation of the third phase of the 2005 Wages Strategy.

In the weeks prior to the 2006 presidential election, Saleh promised a bonus to civil servants–payable after the election. Another regular tactic in response to anti-government protests is the counter pro-regime protest. Often school children and civil servants are ordered to attend under penalty of retribution. Students who did not attend protests were prohibited from taking their finals. Arrests, arbitrary violence and suppression of the media are other characteristic tactics of the Sanna regime, deployed against Southern protesters and civilians in areas of the northern Houthi rebellion. These tactics invariably swelled the ranks of the Southern and Houthi opposition movements, and if implemented again in Sana’a will have the same effect on the new born Northern protest movement.

Yemen Post: In a move described by observers as unhelpful and aiming to avoid a revolt like the one that forced Tunisian President out of office and out of the country this month, the Cabinet approved at its weekly meeting on Tuesday to start implementing the third phase of the Pay Strategy as from next month.

It ordered the Ministries of Civil Service and Insurance and Finance to prepare the executive mechanism to start the strategy that calls for a 30 per cent rise in the wages of the state employees. (Read on …)

International lawyer Adel Al Dhahab diagnosed the central obstacle to reform in Yemen: so many are guilty of serious legal infractions. There is no latitude for reform when the establishment of the rule of law would penalize those who are required to implement it. The structural component that has been missing from all proposed solutions to Yemen’s crises is a general amnesty.

Mr. Al Dhahab is a Yemeni practicing law in Canada with vast experience in civil activism, international law, the intricacies of Yemen’s political affairs and the social and tribal dynamics in Yemen.

Al Dhahab explained in a recent paper, The Missing Step, “What Yemen needs is an amnesty that will pardon all offenders across the board, whether political crime or corruption or tribal offenses. It requires selecting a cut-off date where selected crimes that occurred prior are nullified and crimes that happen after are prosecuted. “

Amnesty is a mechanism endorsed by the UN in exceptional circumstances. It was implemented in Algeria in 2006 and Iraq in February 2008. The concept of amnesty also has a strong basis in Islamic law, a prerequisite in the conservative country. (Read on …)

Good! 4.5 billion YR is about 220 million dollars US. Another area of enormous expense with disproportionately small return is the foreign embassies, which are used as a mechanism for getting outspoken politicians out of the country. For example the actual winner of the al Jawf governor’s election and the first member of Parliament to resign in protest of corrupt practices were both shipped abroad in diplomatic positions. In 2005, Yemen made repeated announcements that it would be closing unnecessary foreign embassies and reducing staff at others in an effort to cut costs. In the end, after months of hullabaloo, one Yemeni embassy was closed, Oct.11, 2005, Romania.

Academic scholarships abroad are important for Yemen’s future but are largely an entitlement to the sons and daughters of influential persons, bypassing much more qualified applicants. Furthermore, hundreds of thousands are on the military payroll but perform no military service, including some al Qaeda. Military commissions are often awarded by tribal sheiks as patronage and the sweeping exclusion of applicants by region (especially the south) during recruitment has triggered riots. The state also has trouble collecting what is due, whether taxes or the millions are owed in electricity bills by high profile persons. There’s really a lot that can be done to rationalize the Yemeni governmental budget, but it remains to be seen if its Romania all over again.

SANA’A, Dec. 3,2010 – SABA: President Ali Abdullah Saleh ordered last Thursday to reduce the proportion of fuel spending given to senior officials estimated at YR 4.5 billion annually. The order comes within the austerity plans, economic and financial reforms and plans to reduce the public budget deficit.

Other measures Saleh has urged included rationalizing the public spending, limiting funds given for medical treatments outside the country, parties, hospitality, advertisement and other unnecessary activities.

The decision could save the budget about YR 10 billion a year.

The ecosystem of al Qaeda in Yemen includes official public discourse legitimizing the concept of takfirism, the obligation to jihad in “occupied Muslim lands”, and the supremacist Wahabbi doctrine which is propagated in schools as well as mosques. The threat of the Talabanization of Yemen, the broad indoctrination of the public–including the military–into the al Qaeda mindset is thwarted by many indigenous safeguards but not the government. Saleh is willing to accept the input of these hard core religious clerics but not representatives of the disenfranchised citizenry including the residents of Saada and the south.

26 September Reference Scholars Committee to Provide Consultation and Advice began its activities today by providing its advice to the president on latest developments inside and outside Yemen.

In his meeting with the committee on Tuesday, the president stressed on the rule and duties of the scholars on educating people on their religious and others issues and guiding youth the right path and be away of extremism.

The scholars stressed on integrating efforts and unifying national fronts to face crises created by some elements. The president then got acquainted with the committee’s activities and preparations taken to start duties in respect to national public issues referred to it to provide consultation to the president on them.

The committee was formed on October by a republican decree last month. President met with scholars last Ramadan and discussed with national issues.

According to the decree, the committee will examine issues referred to them by the president. It will also be in charge of solving differences between any disputing parties and to convince them to “return to” Islamic law. Saba

Professor Files Lawsuit against Saleh and Speaker, Yemen Post

A criminal law professor at Sana’a University has filed a lawsuit against the constitutionality of article 293 of the procedure law No 41 for 2002 that entitles President Saleh after the approval of the Supreme Judicial Council to ask the Supreme Court to reconsider rulings. (Read on …)

al Sahwa: Sahwa Net- Yemen’s main opposition parties, the Joint Meeting Parties, have called for an urgent meeting to discuss obstacles that stand before an inclusive national dialogue.

In an exceptional meeting, JMP approved suspension of their participation in what is called the 30-participant committee, made up from members of the ruling party and opposition parties, until a clear decision is taken to remove all hurdles that impede the national dialogue. (Read on …)

This guy could single-handedly change the face of the Middle East. “Free access to information is essential for human development and hence, people should be liberated from fear of repercussions due to their opinions.”

Yemen Times Walid Al-Saqaf is probably one of the most international Yemeni media people striving for change in Yemen and worldwide. As of late, his mission has been to study and combat Internet censorship in Yemen and around the world. He has already partially achieved this by creating a web crawler – Yemenportal.net – to aggregate news on Yemen in one place. He followed this by creating a piece of software he named alkasir (which can be translated as ‘the circumventor’) that evades Internet censorship of political websites in Yemen and many other countries, and is available to download for free. (Read on …)

White House press release:

Statement by National Security Council Spokesman Mike Hammer on the visit of Assistant to the President for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security John Brennan to Yemen (Read on …)

In 2005, Yemen made several repeated announcements that it was going to cut its bloated diplomatic corps in order to reduce expenses. I think it was around the time they were angling for Millennium Challenge Funds. But of course it was all propaganda and the only embassy closed was in Romania. Ambassadorships are quite lucrative, and often used as rewards or to get outspoken people out of the country. The embassies abroad are frequently centers of corruption and sometimes crime and often have networks that spy on Yemeni expatriate communities.

Republican Decrees appointing ambassadors issued
[25/يوليو/2010] SANA’A, July 25 (Saba) – Six Republic Decrees issued on Sunday appointing Yemeni ambassadors to a number of countries:

1- Decree No. 143 for 2010 appoints Yahya al-Sayaghi as an ambassador of Yemen to Cuba.

2- Decree No. 144 for 2010 appoints Abdul-Qawi al-Eryani as an ambassador of Yemen to Turkey.

3- Decree No. 145 for 2010 appoints Shaiy al-Zandani as an ambassador of Yemen to Jordan.

4- Decree No. 146 for 2010 appoints Jamal Nasir as ambassador of Yemen to Algeria.

5- Decree No. 147 appoints Zaid al-Wareeth as an ambassador of Yemen to Iraq.

6- Decree No. 148 appoints Mustafa Numan as an ambassador of Yemen to Spain.

The cost of diesel in Yemen is about 60% under world consumer prices, and the two million spent on the subsidies primarily benefit smugglers. The cut in the subsidies should be incremental and accompanied by an increase in the social safety net and firm anti-corruption measures.

WaPo: The Yemeni government, struggling to turn around its economy, raised the price of gasoline to 70 rials ($0.339) per liter from 65 rials, while the cost of kerosene was raised to 45 rials per liter from a previous 40 rials, officials from the Yemeni Oil Ministry told Reuters. (Read on …)

For the document in Arabic, see al Tagheer. The National Dialog Committee is comprised of the JMP, independents, some GPC members and social figures including political, tribal and businessmen. It is headed by Mr. Mohammed Salem Basandwah, an adviser to the president, and Sheik Hameed Al-Ahmer is its Secretary General. The group is a mechanism dedicated to building a national consensus on the issues facing Yemen and implementing solutions through peaceful means.

Republic of Yemen

Preparatory Committee for National Dialogue

General Secretariat

Summary: Vision for National Salvation

Sana’a 2010

In the name of Allah, the most Merciful the Most Compassionate
“Why were there not, among the generations before you, persons possessed of balanced good sense, prohibiting (men) from mischief in the earth – except a few among them whom We saved (from harm)? But the wrong-doers pursued the enjoyment of the good things of life which were given them, and persisted in sin (116). Nor would thy Lord be the One to destroy communities for a single wrong- doing, if its members were likely to mend” (117). Surat Hud

Introduction:

On Monday Ramadhan 17th 1429 Hijria, corresponding to 07.09.2009, the Preparatory Committee for National Dialogue (“PCND”) formed of political and social forces, parties, organizations and individuals, businessmen, scholars, intellectuals, opinion leaders, women and youth leaders presented to the Yemeni people of all its political and social categories, classes, forces and components this national dialogue vision. The directions and contents of this vision were formulated by the National Consultation Forum (NCF). The PCND, through serious and responsible discussions and deliberations ultimately concluded that the last opportunity for all Yemenis to confront the nationwide crisis is the mobilization of all national efforts and energies so we all represent a leverage for peaceful change and national salivation that relieves the country from the hands of despotism and corruption. The country should be rescued from this sophisticated cyclone of the crisis. Dire consequences should be avoided with the aim of having a safe and stable country where the dignity of Yemeni people, their rights and freedoms are preserved, and where respect for the principles and goals of the Yemeni revolution is restored and for the noble democratic choices of the Yemeni people agreed upon on 22nd of May 1990 as irrevocable choices.

The following is a summary of this proposed vision containing its key elements.

First:

Objective Diagnosis of the Current Crisis

Roots of the Crisis:

Despotic and autocratic clan or race based regimes that fostered central un-institutional power as a mean to justify and cover up its clan or race based monopoly of power, authority and resources. This is the true impasse and crisis that wasted the right of people in power and the right of country in its human and material resources and, thus, deepening retardation and waste.

Since 1930s, Yemenis were struggling and making substantial sacrifices with enormous number of martyrs to face and resolve this dilemma and abolishing its painful reflections by working to establish a national state as a frame for all Yemenis on the basis of equal citizenship, rule of law and a decentralized system representing the wishes of different groups and forces in the nation.

This continued until the morning of the 22nd of May 1990 when a peaceful unification was realized with all associated national and democratic contents, creating a favorable environment for resolving the historical crisis and opening horizons for the future through:

1. Ending the situation of geographic and social separation that affected the social and national identify of the Yemeni people and, thus, ensuring the direction of national resources to achieve envisaged social development and prosperity.
2. Eliminating all forms of factional discrimination, arrogance tendencies, autocracy and seizure of resources, which, under fragmentation and division, grew and dominated on other forms of consultative democratic regime dreamed of by Yemenis.
3. Opening doors for ousting all forms of autocratic rule, despotism and tyranny and establishing an institutionalized nation-state resting on the principles of equal citizenship and the rule of law as means to overcome the state of retardation and to catch up with the time, strengthen independence and national sovereignty.
4. The peaceful nature of the Yemeni unification represented a fresh start for new Yemeni history repudiating the use of violence for political purposes or in national struggle. Therefore, unity was correlated with political and partisan pluralism, the exchange of power through free and fair elections as inevitable conditions for enhancing the building of modern national state, which would not be built under the state of violence, fragmentation and conflicts over power, resources and decisions.

It is very unfortunate that events followed a different direction. A crisis broke out by the end of 1993 and a civil war erupted in the summer of 1994. In the wake of that war, the rulers pounced against the concepts of the national partnership and the nascent democratic project based on political and partisan pluralism and, hence, obstructed all horizons of hope that were open before Yemenis on 22nd of May 1990.

Second:

Key Manifestations of the Crisis (Read on …)

This is a largely true and a succinct overview at WPR that lays out the issues and some practical measures to reduce tensions and instability in Yemen. However the Saleh regime may not have the will or capacity to implement any necessary political reforms beyond the normal smoke and mirrors. Many, if not all, reforms would weaken the elites’ grip on power. Bribing, cajoling, soft pressure and international expert guidance have had extremely limited results through the years. What if Saleh’s primary goal is not a healthy economically sound Yemen, as seems clear, but instead unbridled power at all costs? He’s been in power for thirty years. Dictators tend to go a little crazy and lose touch with reality after that amount of time. The root of much of the instability in Yemen is Saleh’s irrational and often contradictory policies.

WPR A sensible U.S. and European policy towards Yemen would, in cooperation with other Arab Gulf states, push Sanaa to address the issues described above rather than allow a protracted proxy war to break out. (Read on …)

This is very close to the model needed for Yemen. Sec State Clinton called for a major crimes tribunal in Afghanistan, and an official described Afghanistan as a “criminal mafia state”™. They should take a closer look at Yemen! Its the same paradigm.

The problem with this concept, a well trained and driven corruption task force, in Yemen is that foreign intervention even in the form of training will create more tension, and none of the actors will agree, but the basic principle is correct. There needs to be a drastic intervention to clean the upper echelon of the Yemeni government of their corrupt practices and networks, a caretaker government perhaps.

Not a foreign intervention, no I’m not calling for any sort of invasion, but an authentic effort at accountability would significantly reduce tensions nation wide. Not dialog, not war, not symposiums, not arrests, not bombing, and not military aid. And please don’t talk to me about SNACC or COCA, they are way too weak. At the same time, per some insightful discussion, the issue of amnesty is critical if any restructuring is to occur, for obvious reasons. I’m glad at least the US is recognizing the heart of the issue, a criminal mafia state™ and the resulting loss of legitimacy and efficiency, even if it is in a different country.

Guardian: Nato taskforce to form ‘Afghan FBI’ and root out high-level corruption

Clinton calls for ‘major crimes tribunal’ as west loses patience with Karzai government

Western soldiers are to begin investigating high-profile Afghans suspected of involvement in what one American official describes as a “criminal mafia state” in a sign of the growing international exasperation with Hamid Karzai’s failure to crack down on corruption.

A taskforce being established by Nato in Kabul will consist of a small team of anti-corruption officers, as well as a criminal investigator and prosecutor who hope senior generals will be able to stop cases being derailed by opposition from the Afghan government.

Details of the body emerged as the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, said Washington had called on Karzai to create a “major crimes tribunal” and an anti-corruption commission. (Read on …)