Armies of Liberation

Update: As expected howls of dissent from southerners: the new leader is someone else, I hesitate to even write the name as bad things happen sometimes to emerging leaders, Nakhbi now is an Islah operative they say and there are no, repeat no, connections to Iran. But al Beidh has been talking about Iran for a long time, when he even bothers to talk at all, and I think its quite possible. For a run down on Aden TV and all Yemen private broadcasting, see this listing of who owns what at the Yemen Times.

Original: Bingo! I also do not agree with what is happening between al Beidh and Iran. The violence during the election boycott was an entirely new phenomenon which broke with the years long non-violence of the southern movement. As al Nakhbi says, it was likely due to Iranian influence through the al Beidh wing of the SM. Keep in mind Yemen Fox is affiliated with Ali Mohsen, who has his own motives for undermining the SM. But if this is an authentic interview, then that’s what it is.

While there’s noticeably a lot fewer al Beidh photos during the southern protests, its unclear the extent to which awareness of the alliance between al Beidh and Iran has filtered down to the street, although he himself has been threatening the west with Iran for years. General Nuba issued a warning to world about the danger of Iran’s growing influence in the south a few months ago. Many external former leaders are in favor of federalism as expressed at the Cairo conference. I think there’s a few more factions than the two broad ones described.

Al Nakhbi also remarks that the several corporation including the mega Yemeni Economic Military Corp remits its profits directly to Saleh. He notes elite support of al Qaeda and the symbiotic relationship between the including the recent massacre in Abyan. He concludes that Saleh must be excluded from politics. (Actually it necessary to fully depose the Saleh regime in order to integrate the Houthis as well as the southerners.) Its an interesting interview, worth a read:

Yemen Fox: Brigadier General Abdullah al-Nakhbi- Secretary-General of Southern Movement (SM) – said that many politicians believe that who stand behind recent terrorist attacks are remnants of the former regime and that Ali Abdullah Saleh has turned from president of republic to president of terrorism. Priorities of Yemenis whether in National Reconciliation Government or Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) in coordination with Gulf States and Europeans are to dismiss Ali Abdullah Saleh from practicing political action.

Nakhbi added in an interview with “Yemen Fox” that al-Qaeda is supported by Ali Abdullah Saleh, his aides and remnants of his regime, pointing out that supervisors of GCC Initiative should put pressure to implement the second term of the Initiative which is to restructure the army and Republican Guards within Ministry of Defense and Central Security within Ministry of Interior.

Interviewed with Hashem al-Toromah

Yemen Fox: How do you see Yemen after presidential elections?
Nakhbi: after presidential elections, we as Yemenis stand at change door. The new President Abdu Rabo Mansur Hadi should have a courage to start change process. Change process should first prevent Ali Abdullah Saleh from practicing politics because recent events took place after swearing oath starting from Mukalla continuing to Bayda and now in Abyan Province. Many politicians believe that who stand behind that are remnants of the former regime and that Ali Abdullah Saleh has turned from president of republic to president of terrorism. (Read on …)

In a speech this week, the US Attorney General Eric Holder laid out the Obama administration’s legal criteria for drone use and in particular for assassinating American al Qaeda members abroad. The criteria is summarized below by the Lawfare blog. More importantly than the targeting of Anwar Awlaki and Samir Khan for me, and for the residents of Abyan, Marib, Shabwa, etc., AG Holder reaffirmed the Obama administration’s firm commitment to act within the “international rules of war.”

With the recent uptick in AQAP activity and growing territorial occupation, people too poor to flee al Qaeda are terrified of both AQ and drone attacks. Hopefully this statement by AG Holder represents a real and ongoing commitment by the Obama administration to the principle of civilian immunity and US respect for the value of Yemeni lives.

AQAP does not follow the rules of war, and uses human shields, sheltering in civilian populated areas. The US has been targeting vehicle convoys, not towns. The shelling in Zinibar was from the Yemeni military, not US drones.

After grave US errors like al Mahfad (and the utterly shameful US statement that nearby Bedouins and their children were guilty of material support for selling vegetables, although the villagers had appealed to local authorities to expel the terrorists) and Saleh’s murder of his political enemy Sheik al Shabwani via US drone, visible US drones make parents very concerned. At the same time, the drones have been visible in Marib and many other locations since 2010, and I would think they are collecting surveillance photos.

I think/hope/pray the US understands that these are unwillingly occupied towns, that intel from the Saleh family is entirely unreliable, the CT units have been partially subverted by AQ and that in all cases, children under 14 cannot be terrorists.

The attitude of Yemenis is that al Qaeda should be captured, given a fair trial and imprisoned if there is actual evidence of crimes. They do not oppose counter-terror operations per se but summary execution without trial, just like many Americans who raised objections over Awlaki and Khan.

Boston Herald: Speaking at Northwestern University law school, Holder gave the most complete explanation to date of the Obama administration’s legal rationale for killing people like U.S.-born Anwar al-Awlaki, who was targeted in an airstrike in Yemen last year.

Such killings can be ordered “in full accordance with the Constitution” but require “at least” an imminent threat in a situation where capture is not feasible, and when the strike is “conducted in a manner consistent” with the rules of war, Holder said.

The lawfare summary brings up another issue though, “a senior operational role,” which presupposes that the US knows who it is droning. While the criteria Holder outlined is for deliberate targeting of US citizens, it would be nice to think that the US has some clue as to the names of its Yemeni targets and doesn’t just look for random gatherings of bearded men. In Yemen, the most accurate fatality listing of US drone strikes comes from al Qaeda itself, and the Yemeni government announced Qasim al Reimi was dead four times.

While I imagine there are vast challenges to intelligence gathering on AQAP, it is this imprecision that can lead to collateral damage or more accurately, dead children. I still haven’t gotten over the photos of the crucifixion of the “spies,” but logically a modicum of respect for southerners as southerners in general would go a long way. The language of SD spox Victoria Nuland’s Press Briefing 3/5/12 blew southerners minds, and she probably had no clue how very poorly and furiously it would be received.

via Lawfare’s summary: That is, the speech asserts that Due Process permits targeting of a citizen at least when the target is:

(i) located abroad rather than in the United States,

(ii) has a senior operational role

(iii) with al Qaeda or an al Qaeda-associated force,

(iv) is involved in plotting focused on the death of Americans in particular,

(v) that threat is “imminent” in the sense that this is the last clear window of opportunity to strike,

(vi) there is no feasible option for capture without undue risk, and

(vii) the strike will comply with the IHL principles of necessity, distinction, proportionality, and humanity.

What is the acceptable metric of civilian causality per each suspected al Qaeda targeted? Much, much lower than Afghanistan I hope. Its a very volatile situation.

Voting day updates:

Its over! Hadi wins in a landslide. Many people happy to be rid of Saleh. Inauguration Saturday Feb 25.

The first test of the new Yemeni government is how honestly they deal with today’s election; while much was good, even stellar, hiding, minimizing or outright lying about the hot spots isn’t going to encourage confidence.

This is very encouraging because it reflects reality instead of the normal knee jerk propaganda:

Egypt Ind Separatists who had vowed to mark Tuesday’s presidential vote as a day of “civil disobedience” have seized half of the polling booths in Yemen’s main southern city Aden, a government official said.

“Half of the polling booths in Aden have been shut down after they were seized by gunmen from the Southern Movement,” a local government official told AFP. He said the gunmen had closed 10 out of the city’s 20 voting stations.

Beeb Four soldiers killed in Hadramout, half voting centers closed in Aden. Nothing on the wounded people. Everything peachy in Sanaa.

Why we reject the elections by Noon

A few Houthis in Taiz but otherwise voting smooth, needed and got more ballots.

No confirmation or news updates on the foreign workers, must have been a rumor, the best possible outcome. OR something happened and everyone is fine.

Also report: “News confirm the filling of election boxes (by votes of those who didn’t vote) just before closing time at six o’clock in the evening in most of the election centers in the Governorates of Omran and Hajah..”

Voting in the South is not smooth, tension and clashes in Aden, Hadramout and Shabwa. One report injuries, shooting ongoing in Aden. Violence reported in Amran, Aden Taiz, Lahij, Mukalla and Shihr. Half polling stations closed in the south by one report. After five years, there is still no official southern spokesman to explain why there is a boycott, or what happened where, to the world in Arabic or English. There are people getting shot because of the boycott and there’s no statement.

The Houthis on the other hand are very good with statements:

In an attempt to pre-empt failure inevitable for the proportion of citizens’ participation in (the province of Saada and Harf Sufian and the provinces of argument and the cavity) has the authority to distribute the ballot boxes in areas outside their constituencies so that the distribution of funds in (Imran and incited, Sana’a and argument) on behalf of the circles (Saada).

We emphasize that polling stations are open and there is no interference from us towards those who want to vote and to exercise electoral commissions operate without any hindrance Remember, all that is said in some of the media tendentious is an attempt to justify the failure and cover the popular rejection of the real adjustments unilateral imposed on people by force and ignored the suffering and demands .

And began to crowd in (Saada) out of hours marched Tazahria mass to reflect the absolute rejection of this farce is the predetermined and practice of form, and confirmed its progress continued in the popular revolution, without regard to any attempts at misleading the people deterred from continuing the path of revolutionary even up to achieve the goals of the revolution and you will detail later.

The difference in perspective between people in Sanaa and Taiz where everyone is happy and the south and Saada is striking. Hopefully the election overcomes the schism enough to enable conversation instead of making it worse.
(Read on …)

Victims of the Human Rights violations in South Yemen

The people of the South Yemen have on 13 of February each year day of the anniversary of the martyrs who sacrificed their lives and their blood for their country. We pray to God to accept them and admit them to be in peace and inspire and for their families’ patience and fortitude. The revival of that day is known by the people of the south and fulfillment and gratitude the sacrifices of martyr’s heroes. We are pledging them for liberalization, which they are ordained and martyred for it, sacrifice and redemption approach to achieve their goals in the return of their independent state.

For the documentation of the martyrs of the South, we are as Southern Observatory issued a list of the killed people with some information beginning on since the start of the peaceful southern movement on the seventh of July, 2007 this day approved February 11, 2012. Based on what was able to documentation these since its inception in February 2010, in addition to what motivated by documented sources. The number of killed in the South Yemen are five hundred and sixty one, and the Observatory calls to add the names of the killed people which they were not covered in this list.

Names of killed in South Yemen (2007-2012)

No. Name Date Province
1. Salah Saeed Alkahoom 01.09.2007 Hadramout
2. Walid Saleh Abadi 10.09.2007 Lahj
3. Mohamed Kaid Hamadi 10.09.2007 Lahj
4. Abdulnasse Hamada (Kiran) 13.10.2007 Lahj
5. Shaafik Haitham Hassan 13.10.2007 Lahj
6. Mohamed Naser Alamri 13.10.2007 Lahj
7. Fahmi Mohamed Algafari 13.10.2007 Lahj
8. Saeed Ali Almatas 21.10.2007 Shabwa
9. Saleh Abubaker Algafari 13.01.2008 Aden
10. Ahmed Ali Mohamed 13.01.2008 Aden (Read on …)

The US Ambassador met with southern leaders (Southern Forum) and urged a common vision, realistic and achievable goals, participation in the election and the coming National Reconciliation Conference. (I think anyway, I’m reading google translate of this article.) He also seems to indicate that full independence is opposed regionally and internationally. But of course these are not the local separatist leaders in the south.

There is a fracture between those who support federalism and those who remain committed to an independent state. In this case, I agree with Feierstein that, in order to be effective, they do need a common vision and realistic goals and that participation in the National Reconciliation Conference is an important step in achieving justice and full citizenship rights (one way or anther) for Southern Yemenis. However the international community by acknowledging the prior atrocities (now that Saleh et al have immunity) might take a step toward confidence building. These are not a bunch of disgruntled dead-enders; its most of the region. They do have a common vision (of systematic institutionalized oppression) but not a common solution if you factor in al Attas and the Cairo conference. Also there is no agreed upon leadership structure or formal mechanism of representation that was ever developed.

The southerners had placed a lot of hope in gaining international and UN support based on Saleh’s violation of UN SC res 928 and 931 in 1994, which in their view supports the contention that the south was illegally occupied or reunited by force following Saleh’s victory in the civil war. Considering Saleh immediately violated res 2014 in 2011 without international consequences or reprimand, it now seems highly unlikely that the UN SC will ever produce a result that is not firstly designed toward the best interest of the permanent members.

The system, norms and authority of international law were undermined by the UN mediated and SC endorsed GCC plan, which undermines not only principles of justice but the right of self-determination. So as I’ve said several times before, including early last year before the GCC debacle, and even had translated into Arabic to be clear, I think participating in a self-governed federalist system with the internationally guarantee of a later southern referendum on unity is the way to go.

There are many more things that can be done to diffuse tensions. enough to participate in a conversation at least. For example, this is one spot-on reader comment, “Why should Mahdi Makwalah, one of Saleh’s country-men remain as the supreme military commandant of the Southern governorates including: Aden, Abyan and Lahj? That is another provocation for Southerners.”

A seemingly related reader comment: Wondering why the Ansar AlShariah (or AlQaeada) have managed – easily – to control provinces and cities in the South where the Southern Peaceful Movement (SPM) has a strong sentiment; areas like Azan (Shabwa), Zinjibar & Jaar (Abyan), and AlHota (Lahj). The Ansar AlShariah took partial or full control of such areas after Central Forces and Presidential Guards handed it over to them, or did nothing material to stop them, and that the Air force made random bombardments on these areas which inflected fear and caused damage to residents and their properties?.

Meanwhile (from the same website) “the Supreme National Council for the Liberation and the restoration of the State of the South” (TSNCLRRSS) said in a letter: “The presidential elections scheduled for February 21, 2012 under the initiative of the Gulf, is one of aspects of prosthetic solutions to resolve the crisis of power and the popular uprising in Yemen, and is not looking at the core of the crisis of authority, devastated by the crisis, the failure of the unity, which was one causes emptying of power to face the struggle of the people of the south and is unable to meet the requirements of its people in the north, raising the people against it.” And that’s a good point. The TSNCLRRSS is calling for a boycott of the election.

Another viewpoint:

Just as the Southern were having a “breath of relief” when Mr. Saleh fell, came up Islah Party trying to impose their Islamic vision on the Southernerns yet by force, as much as, if not firecer than, their predecessor. Yesterday they transported their members from Ta’az joining their countrymen who are residents of Aden City. Their announce purpose is to celebrate the 1st anniversary of the (Failed) revolution, but instead they went to AlMualla district of Aden, the heart of the Southern Peaceful Movement strong hold area.

Wondering why they didn’t make their celebration in Saada instead of AlMualla?
Saana gangs have extrem uncompromising disagreemets among themselves, but, ironically, at the same time, are having a full mutal strategy on the South. Whatever they do, they make sure it doesn’t effect their iron grip fist on the South.

Yemenis are fleeing (not joining) al Qaeda where ever they appear. However the vast majority of civilians lack the funds to rent an apartment or to buy food once they leave their farms and possessions behind to be looted by AQAP. But if they stay, they are subject to both al Qaeda dictatorship and US drones. The US may label those who don’t flee as collateral damage or as providing material support (as the Bedouins were in the Dec 2009 US strike in Abyan that killed 43 women and children when General Patraeus implied they were acceptable deaths because they selling vegetable to AQAP, despite the fact the villagers had appealed twice to local authorities to expel the group.)

Certainly AQAP bears the responsibility for sheltering in populated areas in the first place but people in the al Qaeda occupied territories of Yemen want to know where the refugee camps are. Seriously, where are they supposed to go? And it is a US problem when an al Qaeda presence means the potential of US drone strikes. The 120,000 who fled Zinjibar last May are still in the schools of Aden. I know Yemenis’ rights are very low on Obama’s priority list, but there must be a part of the plan to increase US drone use that will deal with the public panic and mass displacement that will occur as US drones follow AQ from province to province threatening people’s lives and homes. Over 15,000 fled Raada within days of Tariq al Dhahab’s (and al Wahishi’s) appearance. They were escaping both the al Qaeda fanaticism and the threat of US drones.

While the Obama administration may try to maintain the myth in the US that they know exactly who they are hitting, and its always a precise targeting, the non-lethal impact on civilians must be considered as well. The US is playing right into al Qaedas hands with nearly every policy from the re-imposition of a dictatorship through the GCC deal to Saleh’s visit to increased drones. The US is focused on vulnerable land when it should be focused on vulnerable people.

Basically, the US is going to bomb Yemen in order to pull off an uncontested election that nobody wants (except the US, the GPC and Islah elites) in the interest of “stability.” If the expired parliament gave Saleh immunity, it can appoint Hadi. The bogus show election isn’t worth more Yemeni lives or the displacement of tens of thousands, and it certainly wont confer legitimacy when there’s only one candidate that was selected by the US. The most politically disenfranchised are going to boycott anyway: civil minded protesters, southerners and Houthis.

The National: Yemen will increasingly rely on US drone strikes to target Islamist militants threatening to disrupt a transfer of power this month, Yemeni government officials said.

The president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, is meant to hand over power to his vice president, Abdurabu Mansur Hadi, on February 22.

The run up to the transfer is being overshadowed by growing protests, including within the military, which have grounded Yemen’s air force across much of the country.

Two aides in Mr Hadi’s office said they expected a rise in drone attacks against Al Qaeda militants.

The strikes will be intensified only if necessary, to ensure that militant groups do not expand in vulnerable areas, said one of the aides. Both asked to remain anonymous. (Read on …)

Its a monthly report on state violence and other HR violations including by AQAP that is always precise in terms of names, dates, photos and locations, and it usually is issued within a month or two of the end date, except for those months with large massacres. The recently issued report for December 2011 lists three dead, as opposed to earlier months and years when many dozens were killed and hundreds were wounded in state violence against southern protesters and activists. The fatality totals in the southern protests (2007-2011) far exceeds the number killed by the state since the broader rev began in 2011, a distasteful metric of murder. (The UN SC forgave 33 years of atrocities in Yemen in the interests of “stability,” providing little incentive for Assad to stop his butchery.) In the following, I pulled out some AQAP violations of human rights for a future project but the entire report is available here at archive.org.

SOHR report Dec 2011

On Monday, December ,5 Sheikh Tawfiq Ali Mansour Juneidi ,nicknamed
“Hawas “the leader of the People’s Committees in the town of Lauder of
Abyan province ,died as a result of wounds sustained by a blast of an
explosive package targeted him on Friday, December ,2 and which also
caused the death of his colleague ,Ali Nasser Houshan .The Web site” ,Taj
South Arabia “reported that the People’s Committees protect the district
from the al-Qaeda operatives ,since it is believe that the al-Qaeda is behind
this assassination….

“Al Qaeda “operatives on the evening of Monday, December , ambushed
two vehicles to target a number of people from Almayaser Tribe from the
Farajs when they were passing in” Ekd “area between the districts of Lauder
and Wadiea .Aden News Agency said that the ambush caused injuries
among three people ,they are :Ahmed Hussein Ashal ,Hussein Ali Ashal and
Ahmed Mohammed al-Ghairi. (Read on …)

As the title indicates, this is a guest post by Nedhal Moqbel

The South and the Northern Government: A Persistently Troubled Dialogue
By Nedhal Moqbel

A recent episode of “Agenda Maftouha” (Open Agenda) program, broadcast by BBC Arabic TV, discussed Yemen’s security situation. Among the program’s guests were the Southern activist Saleh Al-Jabwani and Colonel Abdullah Al-Hadri who represented President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s opposition. Mr. Al-Hadri dilated on Saleh’s crimes against protesters in Sanaa and Taiz squares and the destruction he left behind. However, Mr. Al-Hadri obviously got nervous and impatient when the issue of Southern secession was raised. As he responded to Mr. Al-Jabwani’s comments, Colonel Al-Hadri used an emotional speech and a sharp tone, contending that the current situation is the cause of the entire “Yemeni nation.”

“Our cause is one . . . why do you want to divide us amidst this continuous uprising?” added Mr. Al-Hadri. Wait a minute! Wasn’t it a “one Yemeni nation” when Southerners began their own uprising after 1994, demanding their right to a merely dignified life? Wasn’t it a “one Yemeni nation” when you and your boss (Saleh) brutally persecuted them? Weren’t those protesters your fellow citizens and, therefore, part of this “Yemeni nation”? Moreover, Mr. Al-Hadri stated that General Ali Mohsen Al-Ahmar was an honest military man who refused to stand by a dictator, and so did Colonel Al-Hadri and many others in the military. He said, “Yes, we used to be Saleh’s partners before. But when he stained his hands with blood and began to distort the country and foster Al-Qaeda, we decided to stay away and choose the homeland and the nation.” How devious! How provocative!

In a sympathetic tone, Mr. Al-Hadri spoke of Saleh’s crimes during the recent protests in North Yemen, stressing that this bloodshed was the reason he (Al-Hadri) and others like General Al-Ahmar seceded from Saleh. As if Saleh’s hands were clean until before these protests! What about the blood he has shed in the South since 1994? What about the thousands of Southerners whom he and his allies killed and wounded in that short-term civil war with military tanks and rockets? What about many extra thousands of Southerners whom they have killed, detained, tortured, and wounded since the outset of the Southern Peaceful Hirak? Why did Mr. Al-Hadri and his fellow military men not distance themselves from Saleh while he was shedding those bloods in the South? Why did they continue to support him, to represent his iron fist over the South? Why did they turn against Saleh only when his victims were Northern citizens?

Of course, my intention is not to attack anyone. I simply reject the twisted language Mr. Al-Hadri used to obscure the Southern cause. He went on, using the same emotional appeal: “It’s shameful to talk about South and North now . . . our cause now is that of a homeland and a nation.” Well! What is really shameful is that Colonel Al-Hadri does not consider the Southern issue itself a cause of an entire homeland whose lands and natural resources and jobs have been robbed, an entire people that used to exist independently but now is under a real occupation. What is really shameful is that Mr. Al-Hadri’s words echoed Saleh’s attitudes toward the South even though the former was presented in the program as an anti-Saleh figure. The same old regime being reproduced! No wonder that most of the oppositional figures affiliated with the “new” government participated in various ways in the 1994 war against the South. No wonder that they still unjustly and irrationally compare the Southern cause (a cause of a homeland) with the Huthi issue (a cause of a sectarian group).

Northern military figures like Colonel Al-Hadri know well the many injustices from which Southerners have suffered too long. Therefore, it is unacceptable that he accuse them of having “ruptured the country.” The country has been torn apart since the 1994 civil war. I wonder if Mr. Al-Hadri still remembers when his citizens in the North celebrated their “victory’ over the South on 7/7/1994; the Sanaa official TV then displayed Northern women uttering trilling cries of joy and Northern men chanting on streets, “Allah Akbar! Long live our leader Ali Abdullah Saleh!” On the other side of the country, Southerners were collecting the dead bodies of their loved ones in order to bury them. This black day, with all the sad memories it carries to Southerners, was made an official holiday and a national day to celebrate annually. Technically, unification ended in 1994 and was replaced by an occupation of the South and a robbery of its natural resource revenues, history, culture, and dignity. Who, then, tore up the previously unified Yemen?

The General People’s Congress and the Joint Meeting Parties are two faces of the same coin. The talk about having given Saleh immunity from prosecution is only half the truth. This “new” government has, in fact, given immunity to itself, too, since the majority of its officials were yesterday’s strong allies of Saleh’s. What we see now in the Sanaa government is the same old regime, and what we hear is the same old language, especially when it comes to the Southern problem. This government’s officials may undergo internal conflicts, but the Southern issue is always the thing that eventually brings them together due to their shared fear of losing the South with all its many treasures. Until Southerners achieve their goal of liberation, we will continue to hear the same rhetoric from Northern officials (and from Northern ordinary citizens) who often argue fearfully and impatiently, “there’s only one Yemen . . . unity is a red line . . . we’re ready to die for it . . . we’ll protect it with our own blood . . . unity or death.”

Comment by Jane: It is true that the atrocities toward the southern protesters (2007-2010) provoked little if any outrage in other parts of Yemen. During the Saada War, civil groups aligned themselves with the concept of civilian immunity without taking a stand on either side of conflict itself. Conversely during the southern protests, the arrests, torture and cold blooded killings elicited little sympathy. Beyond the absence of media attention, some in Sanaa expressed the opinion that southern protesters deserved it. In 2007/8, Southerners were really expecting that their counterparts in the north would join their uprising against the regime.

The lack of domestic solidarity against the state’s systematic attacks on unarmed southern protesters that in part caused the shift in demands from equal civil rights to independence. Remarkably, some of the current revolutionaries (who are seeking to overthrow the regime) deny that southerners have the right to seek independence although both movements deny the legitimacy of the state. From the outset of the current revolution, few efforts were made to reach out to the southern secessionists. And many southerners viewed the year long protests in Sanaa and other parts of the country in a disconnected way, not wholly unsympathetic, but as if the bloody events were occurring in another county. As I’ve said before, many view the unity government as an re-branding of northern power. some also view all northerners as privileged and part of the oppressive structure, when in fact disenfranchised northerners are very poverty stricken and thoroughly without basic services.

In terms of raw numbers, Saleh’s trail of blood, more southern protesters were killed than “northern” protester fatalities over the last year of the rev, and it occurred week after week in an atmosphere of domestic and international silence.

As I wrote last year, I agree with the concept of a temporary federalism with a guaranteed referendum in the southern provinces on unity in a few years, if just to allow some breathing space for the children to get healthy again. However the problem is a crisis of credibility.
كما كتبت في العام الماضي ، أنا أتفق مع مفهوم الفيدرالية المؤقتة مع استفتاء مضمون في المحافظات الجنوبية على الوحدة في غضون سنوات قليلة ، وإن كان فقط للسماح لإفساح المجال للأطفال لاستعادة صحتهم مجدداً. لكن المشكلة هي أزمة مصداقية.
(Read on …)

The southern issue in a post Saleh-immunity world

As I wrote last year, I agree with the concept of a temporary federalism with a guaranteed referendum on unity in the southern provinces in a few years, if just to allow some breathing space for the children to get healthy again. However the problem as elsewhere is a crisis of credibility.

Southerners often speak of the al Ahmars and al Zindani with as much disrepute as Saleh, so the new unity government seems to them an extension of “northern” power (just as many of the Youth Revolutionaries see it as an extension of the Saleh regime). The National Revolutionary Council included dozens of southerners, without any prior discussion, and they all immediately resigned. However with all the international meddling now, there’s room for the southerners to gain some concessions and a time table that is internationally recognized.

At the same time, the southern leaders have failed to implement any structures or mechanisms of legitimacy and representation, or to permit a transfer of executive power within the movement. There is a step that comes after marches, rallies and protests, and they haven’t taken it since 2007. A disconnect among the publics remains in place, largely a result of media repression and extremely low infrastructure penetration.

It also should be clear to southerners that there is going to be no international support for an independent state no matter how righteous their cause or how many bloody photos they publish. The idea that the UN will care that Saleh violated UN res 924 and 931 in 1994 is ridiculous in light of the fact the Security Council did nothing when Saleh recently violated res 2014 and kept murdering unarmed protesters in Sanaa and Taiz. Saleh’s immunity covers all his war crimes in the south, as well as against the protesters and in Saada.

International efforts in Yemen remain focused on perpetuating “stability” and maintaining a pliable client-state. But at least there is some attention now, and it might be a good idea to take advantage of it while things are still in flux.

WaPo Southerners say Saleh and his northern tribesmen have denied them their share of oil revenue; about 80 percent of Yemen’s oil production is located in the south. They say the government dismissed many southerners from military and government jobs, denying them access to even local power, and point out that the governors of all seven southern provinces are from the north. Southerners also accuse influential northerners of grabbing land in the south for personal gain.

The movement’s more radical leaders want an immediate separation from the north, returning to the pre-1990 geography. Moderate leaders seek a federal system, where more power is devolved to the south. After five years, a referendum for self-determination would decide whether the south would remain part of a united Yemen or secede, much like what took place in southern Sudan last year.

With Saleh agreeing to cede power, Arab and Western diplomats worry that a failure to address the south’s grievances could handcuff Yemen’s transition, the worst-case scenario being another civil war.

Alsahwah.net – Three protesters and two policemen were killed, and 20 others were wounded on Friday as security forces used live ammunition against supporters of the Southern Movement.

Medics said that 26 protesters were taken to receive treatment.

Thousands of the Southern Movement’s followers protested on Friday to mark the annual anniversary of the civil war erupted in 1986 between fictions of the ruling regime then.

Witnesses said forces of the Central Security used gas bombs, live ammunition to disperse the protesters.

Press reports quoted eyewitnesses as saying that snipers shot fire on the protesters from the back of security forces.

Yemeni human rights organizations and political parties have called to swiftly identify those responsible for the killing of protesters and bring them to justice.

The Southern Observatory for Human Rights issued its detailed monthly report on violence and human rights violations in South Yemen, with names, dates and graphic photos of the dead.

SOHR, English, violations in South Yemen Sept 2011

SOHR, Arabic violations in South Yemen, Sept 2011

A closer look at the nature of those violations makes us aware that these violations have exceeded the character of heinousness to be upgraded to the level of crimes against humanity, as they included shooting peaceful demonstrators, killing dozens, wounding hundreds and arresting thousands of them, in addition to the acts of the worst kinds of torture against them….

Soldiers of the regime’s forces on Wednesday evening, September 14, fired on a number of young people in the district of Mansoura, governorate of Aden, when they gathered after an explosion rocked the city. The Web site, “Aden Alghad,” cited the story saying that the shooting caused the young child, Mahd Hassan Mahboob (13 years,) to be (killed) and the child Lutfi Ahadjila (14 years) to be wounded….

The situation in the governorate of Abyan is not a vague mystery,
according to the young person of Zanzibar, but its clear truth is that the regime of President Saleh is behind it, to be under its service, for
information confirms that the constant reinforcements easily and without difficulties arrive to those groups from the northern provinces, including the arms, money and supplies, despite the fact that the entrances and exits of those provinces are under the control of the authorities and the military forces and government.

(10/5) The YT explains the blocks within the southern movement and that the more moderate positions are represented by external actors, but many southerners within Yemen are still firmly committed to independence. I posted a plea after the article to give a sense of the depth of sentiment in the south.

Yemen Times SANA’A, Oct. 5 — The Southern Movement’s recent preparatory meeting in Cairo revealed significant differences among the movement’s ranks in terms of how it imagines the future administrative system of Yemen. The meeting, held on 26 and 27 September, 2011, aimed at preparing for a large-scale conference to be held soon in order to facilitate the creation of a unified southern position in Yemen’s politics. (Read on …)

It also could be state retribution for the massive pro-independence demonstration in Aden on Oct 14. 9/20 Update: or the whole thing is regime propaganda…

Yemen Post: Thursday evening, residents in Aden reported heavy shelling in the Crater area, saying that the explosions were so numerous and violent that they had to take cover into basements and nearby buildings….In other parts of the city gun-battles are raging between men in civilian clothes and regular Adeni residents.

With so much confusion and contradictory statements, it is really difficult to establish a clear picture. Some anti-regime protesters are claiming that the government is attacking the Revolution, while others are claiming that al-Qaeda elements are trying to take control over Aden as the town is strategically of great importance.

Continuing

AM Australia: Fears al Qaeda is behind attacks on Port of Aden, Saturday, October 22, 2011 08:03:00

(Read on …)

The southern movement held protests across the south yesterday, 10/14/11, the 48th anniversary of the birth of the anti-colonial independence movement in 1963 that led to the expulsion of the UK and the formation of the PDRY in 1967 . Large pro-independence protests were seen in Aden, Hadramout, Lahj and Shabwa in contrast to the previously low, if not non-existent, turn out by southerners for the 2011 Yemeni Youth Revolution protests. Protesters were asked to go to Aden or Radfan if possible. These numbers as shown in the photos are at about the levels that southerners protested from 2007-2010. The Southern Movement seeks an independent state and claims that the south was occupied by Northern Yemen following the 194 civil war, contravening UN SC resolutions 928 and 931.

SM leaders and members within Yemen reject efforts by expats like al Attas and ANM to find a consensus for a federal system, including results of the Cairo conferences. Last month, General Nassar al Nuba invited UN envoy Jamal bin Omar to the south to discuss the SM position and opportunities for resolution. Beyond a handful of individual efforts by YRR activists, no international or official YYR efforts have been made to engage the Southern Movement. Several southern leaders were appointed without discussion to the National Revolutionary Council and all immediately resigned. The photo below was taken yesterday in al Mansoura, Aden:

The following in Radfan, Lahj:

Photos Hadramout here and also here.

SOHR’s June report includes updates of activities of the Southern Movement, and its civil and violent repression, fatalities from across the south (warning graphic photos) and the events in (Zinjibar) Abyan, Aden, Lahj, Dhalie etc.

To download in English, click here

For Arabic, click here

Google translated, the original Arabic below, he says any representatives that UN envoy Jamal bin Omar met in Sanaa or in Cairo or YSP members do not represent the southern movement and he should come to the south to see the situation on the ground and talk to the leaders of the southern movement if he wants to actually solve “the Yemen crisis.”

We read through the media of the activities and meetings of the Envoy of the Secretary General of the United Nations, Jamal Bin Omar on assistance in solving the so-called crisis of Yemen According to the initiative of the Gulf Cooperation Council.

However, we believe that the Gulf initiative did not touch the essence of the so-called Yemen problem, a crisis in the occupation of the south 7-7-1994, which came because of all the These consequences, which means that Astmraha a threat to peace in the region And the whole world because of the important strategic site for the South. (Read on …)

Ahmed Darwish was brutally tortured to death in an Aden jail after being randomly arrested. Much later when the revolution broke out, and fatalities in Aden skyrocketed because of violence against civilians, the US called for Kiran, the head of security, to be removed from his post. So the Sanaa regime transferred him to Taiz, where he continues his slaughter.

YemenFox:
The public persecution in Aden city – sera district- issued an official letter to the chief prosecutor in the governorate to arrest the former security chief of Aden –who is now the current security chief of Taiz –General Abdullah Giran and generalized the latter to all air, sea and land outlets to arrest him and prevent him from traveling abroad and take him to the public persecution office if found.

General Giran is accused of torturing Ahmed Darwesh a young man till death In Aden city and also accused of killing peaceful protestors in taiz city.

He is also the primary guilty of taiz holocaust.

Separating fact from fiction is always quite difficult in Yemen. As predictable both the state’s military forces and the pro-revolutionary military forces claimed credit for freeing Zinjibar, although the extent to which it has been freed is questionable. Certainly some jihaddists fled, because people saw them withdrawing. Some moved to the mountains (Hattat) and some to Jaar, maybe Shabwa, and it is unclear if the split in the al Qaeda forces between northern and southern jihaddists is reflected in the divergent destinations. However residents are currently reporting that Zinjibar has not been liberated, only some sections of it, and fighting continues. The Yemen Times had an article, Who freed Zinjibar? but the paper is entirely off line at the moment. Tribal mediation has thus far failed to bring about a compete withdrawal. It was only with US help that the three month siege 25th Mechanized was broken.

Residents are without water, electricity, food and medical services since the Razi hospital was closed and many have fled to Aden and Lahj where there is no housing or aid waiting. The state announced that it will be moving the internal refugees out of the schools in Aden, but it is unclear where the IDPs will be going next.

Some links:

akhbaralyom.net (Ali Mohsen’s news paper): In that context sources familiar with the situation said to “Today’s News” that Secretary of Defense may send a tribal delegation to negotiate with the insurgents and persuade Jalal Blaidy and insurgents that they need to withdraw from the city of Zanzibar, noting that the tribal delegation failed in his mission to persuade the gunmen to withdraw from the Zanzibar and that the insurgents said that they would step up their operations against the army.

News Yemen Local residents: we saw the insurgents moving into Jaar
Army restores Zanzibar and frees 25 Major Mika
10/09/2011 NewsYemen:

Local residents said city of Zanzibar, in Abyan province to NewsYemen that the forces of the army freed today by members of the Brigade 25 Mika besieged by al-Qaeda members in more than four months, and Zanzibar has cleared of insurgents. (Read on …)

A rights and media activist and Vice Chairman of the Media Association in the Abyan Province is reporting AQAP has agreed to withdraw from Abyan, with compensation, following mediation. Also he reports a schism between two factions of jihaddists in Abyan in response to the proposal, and some are going into the mountains instead of leaving the province. Separately, I have an interview with one of the mediators that was conducted a few days ago and before the agreement was reached, and that should be posted shortly. (Or not.) There were a few rounds of mediation in the last weeks.

Update: Additional confirmation by residents of large scale withdrawals from Jaar and Zinjibar in Abyan. This is following the Yemeni bombing campaign and the resupply of the 25th Mechanized by the US.The question is where are they going? Update 2: Another report says the withdrawal is from Jaar and those who are agreed are from “the provinces of Yemen,” meaning the north. The red on red fighting a few weeks ago was also between northern and southern terrorists. And it makes sense that southern jihaddists wouldn’t want to relocate to Marib which is the likely destination.

1) Last night, the authorities reached agreement with the militants in Abyan to waive their Islamic Emirate in Abyan in return of their safe withdrawal and compensation for any loses, we actually saw many of them leaving with their weapons, more details later.

2) Agreement has been reached on the withdrawal of militants with their weapons and the abandonment of the name of “Emirate of Abyan” and to stop pressing for prosecution as well as compensating them for their losses according to sources close to both the Authorities and the militants. The agreement has been singed a few minutes before the bombardment threat the Minister of Defence has vowed to carry out against Jaar, which would have “wiped it out” in the event of rejecting (the agreement). But after the signing, a dispute as broke-out between the militants (between supporters and opponents of “the agreement”). Currently, the opponents (of the agreement) are now withdrawing to the mountains. Hence the Abyan show has ended..

Another variation:

The withdrawal of armed groups from the city of Jaar after an agreement with the authorities of the Yemeni occupation regime Breaking News: Private sources: the Yemeni regime makes a deal with armed groups, which occupies the city of Jaar requires their withdrawal with all their equipments to the nearby mountains in Hattat Breaking News: Private sources: Acceptance of armed groups that belong to the governorates of Yemen (ed-northern Yemen) of the agreement with the Sanaa regime has led to splits in the ranks of these groups Braking News: Groups, the so-called Sharia supporters held an agreement with the Authorities of the Sanaa regime leading to the exit from the city of Jaar to the surrounding mountains to carry as much as they can of their equipments