Mr. Abdullah al-Asnag is a former foreign minister of Yemen who currently resides in Saudi Arabia. He is a well respected senior figure in Yemeni politics. We are pleased to present Mr. Al-Asnag’s analysis of the increased incidence of purported terrorist attacks in Yemen. Included in his analysis are comments pertaining to two recent articles which discuss the same topic. The first is an article written by Gregory Johnson and published by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy, West Point. The second article is written by Moneer Al-Mawari and published in the Yemen Times. Both articles are quite well informed, but each advances a different hypothesis* on the genesis of “Al-Qaeda in Yemen”. Each should be read in full to understand the context of Mr. al Asnag’s comments.
Towards Better Understanding of the Yemeni Situation
by Abdullah Al-Asnag
Thank you for drawing my attention to the recent publication by Gregory Johnsen in CTC Sentinel. In a previous publication by the same writer I would shed light on two major comments that he included in his article entitled “Yemen – Salih’s Road to Reelection” dated January 13, 2006. I am astonished to note the extreme contradiction between the two views expressed by the same writer over a short period of time.
The first point he made in his previous article touched upon the Yemeni President standing for reelection after having earlier made a public announcement that he will not stand in the elections, “Following six months of rumor and speculation in Yemen, President Ali Abdallah Salih did the expected and announced that he would stand for reelection in the presidential contest scheduled for September 2006. Salih accepted the nomination of his ruling General People’s Congress party on December 17, 2005, during its three-day conference in the southern port city of Aden. The conference, which had been postponed twice to allow Salih to return from state visits abroad, was largely a scripted affair, with few surprises, save for when the president tried and failed to catch a pigeon that landed at his table…But Salih’s acceptance of it marked a clear reversal of his earlier pledge not to stand for reelection in favor of a ‘peaceful transfer of power.’”
Mr. Johnsen further stressed the fact that Salih was confident of winning the elections and the whole matter was nothing more than a theatrical performance, “If the 63-year old president wins reelection, which seems all but guaranteed, he would continue to rule Yemen until 2013, rounding out a full 35 years in power for a man few thought would last six months…Salih’s announcement, however, was only the first act in a piece of political theater, part comedy, part tragedy, that played out on a national stage. Like most scripted performances, everyone had a part to play, but control of the production remained offstage, unseen.”
Moreover, it is evident that corruption bribery, unemployment, misappropriation of public funds, as well as peaceful resistance is spreading all over the Southern Yemeni governorates and a 4-year old war continues to be raged in the Northern province of Sa’ada. Basic human rights including freedom of expression and publication are being violated and newspapers such as Al Wasat, Al Shoura, Al Tariq, and Al Ayyam are being intimidated and prosecuted.
I couldn’t agree more with what Mr. Mawri suggested in his intervention entitled The Metamorphosed Terrorism that terrorist elements are not Al Qaida affiliated, but most of them are linked to jobs said to be connected with tribal chiefs and the ruling political party.
A stable Yemen will serve national, regional, and US interests. However, this is far from being realized by a notorious dictator who confiscated Yemen, the country and the nation and has been a destabilizing factor in the entire region. It has been established beyond any doubt that the regime in Yemen led by Ali Abdullah Saleh and his junta has fueled the ongoing civil war in Somalia through illegal arms trafficking to parties in the conflict.
Moreover, Yemeni sources go as far as suggesting that senior government personnel are sponsoring the constantly ongoing processes of money laundering and the counterfeiting of US Dollars and Saudi Riyals. Arms, drugs, and child trafficking are daily incidents originating from Yemen and exported to neighboring countries namely Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the rest of the Gulf states. The role of the Yemeni dictator in rallying behind the late tyrant of Iraq Saddam Hussain is well known to all.
As of today portraits of the late Iraqi dictator are placed side by side to Ali Abdullah Saleh’s portraits in hotels and shops throughout the capital Sana’a. Further, the flow of volunteers holding Yemeni passports to join different war groups in Iraq is evident. Only a few weeks ago the Syrian authorities extradited a number of Yemenis crossing the Syrian border from Iraq and alleged to have been linked to terrorists in Iraq. Such infiltration of individuals holding Yemeni passports into Iraq and back cannot happen without the consent of the Yemeni dictator and his men.
Accordingly, I would recommend that the Yemen question should be seriously looked into and our comrades in the free world should realize that defending dictators in Yemen and the Middle East is a serious deviation from basic human rights and democratic principles. And as we say in Arabic, a dictator can never be transformed into a defender of democracy, and a dog’s tail can never be straightened. As such, Ali Abdullah Saleh cannot be counted upon as a partner to bring stability to Yemen, even in the short term. Financial and political support will only serve to open his appetite to carry out more and more atrocities.
(*Editors note: The dichotomy of viewpoints between Yemeni and Western analysts is pronounced. The article at the Counter Terrorism Center at West Point finds that “Al-Qa`ida in Yemen was defeated by the close cooperation of the United States and Yemen during the first phase of the war (2000-2003), but it learned from the loss,” and adapted its tactics and goals. The new al-Qaeda generation rejects negotiation with the regime and is heralded by a new strategy and increasing sophistication in online propaganda. As domestic pressures sap the Yemeni regime’s attention and resources, the control of al-Qaeda has taken a low priority. The stability of Yemen (and the Saleh regime) is the vital first step to defeating al-Qaeda, the article asserts, and the US will have to funnel more funds to Yemen to achieve this goal. The author finds the US should prioritize its demands on Yemen, “The United States must decide whether it wants a partner in the war against al-Qa`ida, or whether it wants a country that is attempting to meet democratic benchmarks.”
This general assessment is shared by other Western analysts who also agree with the assertion that al-Qaeda operatives who returned from Iraq are responsible for repeated strikes in Yemen designed to weaken the Saleh regime. ISN Security Watch describes the attacks as, “designed to undermine government revenues with strikes on oil facilities and pipelines and foreign oil companies and tourists.” Similarly, Jamestown Foundation’s Terrorism Focus finds, “The attacks were a message to Saleh, and to the global community, that the chaos-producing strategy of al-Qaeda in Iraq…is now being exported to the militants’ homelands.”
The opposing view is most often found among Yemeni analysts and holds that the Yemeni regime fosters and deploys Islamic extremists as mercenaries and as a tool of foreign policy. While this view is predominant among Yemen’s internal political opposition, it is not exclusive to them, and some within the Yemeni government privately express this view. In this paradigm, most terror attacks are authorized by regime affiliated persons to achieve a variety of goals, one of which is to provoke international sympathy and funding while diminishing donors’ demands for reform and greater counter-terror cooperation. This viewpoint was expressed by Moneer al-Mawari when he wrote in the Yemen Times, “But what has been proved authentic is that most of the terrorist operations in our homeland were launched by individuals whom the authority metamorphosed and transferred from the Qaeda terrorist Network to a government-controlled terrorist camp. Therefore, most of the terrorists available in Yemen…receive orders from officers in the Yemeni army and security institutions.” Al Mawari asserts that the regime maintains the pretense of al Qaeda as it maintains the pretense of democracy, and that the new “al-Qaeda in Yemen” is a deadly puppet created to manipulate Western expectations.
Another seasoned Yemeni political observer finds that Yemen’s current political instability and the spate of terror attacks are closely related but not in the way generally perceived in the West. “What is clear from recent developments whether in the security or economy of Yemen is that the regime is ailing and using its last few cards to remain in power,” he said, commenting on condition of anonymity. “One of the most successful tactics has been to create a massive media blackout locally, regionally and internationally to hide the shady deals with al-Qaeda elements and the massive protests and killings of citizens in the south of Yemen. However, the truth is coming out,” the analyst noted. “That truth is that, unlike what many may think, the collapse of Yemen as a regime and as a country is close, really close. And that’s the sad reality that we should be aware of,” he concluded.
Musid Ali, Director of the Yemeni American Anti-Terrorism Center, in commenting on this issue says he created YAATC to bring the truth to light about the Yemeni regime’s relationship with Al-Qaeda. In his view, the regime is responsible for the recent attacks, having provided support, resources and/or training. This is a serious charge as several foreign tourists were killed. The attacks, he said, “are a result of the good relationship between the regime and al-Qaeda.” The purpose of the attacks is to “make the west in general and the US in particular believe that Yemen is an ally of the US against al-Qaeda, but what is clear to the Yemeni people is the strong relationship between al-Qaeda and the regime.” As such, the counter-terror assistance provided by the US in terms of funding, training and equipment has been used “only against the Yemen people”. Mr. Ali went on to name several high ranking personalities within Saleh’s administration who he says are affiliated with and facilitating al-Qaeda. The list is familiar to most observers of Yemen but bears repeating: Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, Brigadier General, Ghalib al-Qamish, head of the Political Security Organization, General Yahya Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, chief of general staff at the Central Security Organization, and Ali al-Ansi, Chairman of the National Security Agency.)
